What helped St Kilda “over-perform” in 2016-2017 if it wasn’t Richo?

[samoht]

Let's be honest about it ...
Whenever we look at the chances of team A winning over team B, we always study the player list of team A vs the player list of team B, consider the injuries and look at the Ins and Outs.

We never look at who's coaching team A and who's coaching team B - because it doesn't really matter - it's neither here nor there.

We just consider the coaches a nil all draw and look at the respective player lists to determine who the winner will be.

That's because, we all know deep down, that it's all about the players and the list - and the fact is, we have the weakest list at the moment, plus we have a heap of injuries.

I think our frustration is leading us to think that we just need to replace the coach - that "our sytem is wrong" - that our list is as strong as the Hawks, Geelong list, etc, and that our system and coach is to blame.
Fact is we don't have any A grade players with elite skills. Not a one - while other teams are loaded with them.

We need to recruit our way out of this mess - and it will take years.
The coach should be getting games into all the younger players, however - hopefully Goddard, Clark and Coffield will be in next week. That's my main criticism of AR. I can't believe Pierce was overlooked - I saw him play some very good games at VFL level.

[Bruce G McAbee]

The more i read here the more I am convinced that they need to get Roo back as an assistant coach then the real coach.
Every player on our list would respect and play for him.

[saintsRrising]

As I have stated another threads this year is not just due to Richo, but he is a key factor in not making the most of what we do have. There are other factors why our upside is not that of a Top 4 contender as well.


There are some good points above in the posts above. Adding to them:

Gameplan
- All other teams know how we play now and how to counter it
- Most other teams are now playing a faster more direct gameplan that peels us open

That is a Lose, Lose combination

Loss of Faith
- In my opinion, the players do not believe in our gameplan or Richo anymore, and so that leads to frustration, confusion, lack of effort, and then under performance. You look at the Tigers now and you see in their players that sheer belief that our players had in the peak Lyon years (Top 4 teams all have this).

Talent
- We have been losing quality players faster than we can develop and recruit it. ie Roo, Joey Dempster. IMO this is a combination of continually missing the best available player, not ever picking up in the draft a real outperformer relative to their draft pick like a Cripps, Merret, Fantasia, Kelly(Cats) etc

- Player Development.
The lack here is endless.
--- What do our players do well? Tackling (they do not know how to tackle well and shepherding is way overused, kicking, goalkicking (supposedly being addressed, but yet our players clearly have no regular kicking routine method that they adhere too)

--- Now under Lyon we also played our youth less than we possibly/probably should, BUT at least we were having a real crack at winning a flag and you could therefore understand why.

BUT under RIcho we were meant to be in a clear rebuilding phase and so we should have been playing our youth more. This probably help win more games in the last two seasons but is hurting us more in this season. Only injuries has forced his hand. Without injuries you would have even less development of our younger players at AFL Level. Case in point is Goddard who has has pretty decent form of late MAY only possibly play his first game for the year this week after Brown is suspended. and after struggling in the ruck all year why was Pierce only tried when both Longer and Hickey were injured?


Now some of the above are not all things that Richo directly does, but as HEAD Coach many of them are aspects that he is 100% responsible for.

Also he has had FIVE years to sort out sort out who his assistant coaches should be. Passing the buck so much on them now just does not cut it for me.

Yes he does not recruit/draft players (which is an area the club has been under-preforming in). BUT he is 100% the guy that is meant to oversea development, training and matchday playing of what we do have.

Five years of seeing some players role out the same deficiencies?

[samoht]

Simplifying it down- we don't have any A grade players with elite skills on our list. Not one. It basically boils down to that.
Therein lies the problem - including game plan (you may have the best game plan going around, but you need talent plus kicking skills to make it work), and why we don't appear to have a system (you need talent plus kicking skills again - otherwise you look like a rabble).

Add injuries to this and that's the reason where we're at, at the moment. We didn't have this level of injuries in 2016-2017 and we did have an easier draw (plus we had Montagna, Dempster, Riewoldt and Fisher).

Good recruiting will eventually get us out of this mess - and some luck with injuries, of course.

Game plans and systems work if you have a talented and skilful list - because a more talented and skilful side will always make their game plan and system work - and will always pull your game plan and system apart - and make it look like you don't have one or that yours is inferior (and it may look like you're being "outcoached" - when you're actually being outplayed).

We need to play all the youngsters - AR needs to do that - I hope Brown is rubbed out for the rest of this year (whether he deserves to be or not).

[kaos theory]

Simplifying it down- we don't have any A grade players with elite skills on our list. Not one. It basically boils down to that.
Therein lies the problem - including game plan (you may have the best game plan going around, but you need talent plus kicking skills to make it work), and why we don't appear to have a system (you need talent plus kicking skills again - otherwise you look like a rabble).

Add injuries to this and that's the reason where we're at, at the moment. We didn't have this level of injuries in 2016-2017 and we did have an easier draw (plus we had Montagna, Dempster, Riewoldt and Fisher).

Good recruiting will eventually get us out of this mess - and some luck with injuries, of course.

Game plans and systems work if you have a talented and skilful list - because a more talented and skilful side will always make their game plan and system work - and will always pull your game plan and system apart - and make it look like you don't have one or that yours is inferior (and it may look like you're being "outcoached" - when you're actually being outplayed).

We need to play all the youngsters - AR needs to do that - I hope Brown is rubbed out for the rest of this year (whether he deserves to be or not).

Rubbish.

You completely absolve the coach of any responsibility. He and the culture he has established at the club is the main reason we are a rabble now. We have talented players on the list, but over the last 3 to 4 years they have gone backwards, thanks to confusing/non-existent game day coaching, no clear vision on game style and most importantly, no ability to build a culture of demanding high-standards to be successful at an elite level.

Last year, both Roo & Monty's were a shadow of their former ability. Their major input came from their coaching, encouragement and player bakes to get the players around them to perform at a higher level. That's the main reason why we were a much better team last year.

[axcellence]

We didn’t over perform.

Unless finishing outside the 8 some kind of aspirational goal.

We won some and lost more. Frustratingly showed glimpses of brilliance and mediocrity.

The burning question is weather it is the cattle or the coaches?

My position is that, mathematically, we just couldn’t have got nearly every pick wrong over the years.

I can’t be bothered to do the statistical work but would estimate the chances of getting most choices wrong to be an improbable number.

It’s not the talent. It’s the system.

Our system is an abomination.

I don’t know the dribble the rest of us put out, when you’ve mostly nailed it.

Coaching is just 5-10% on top. ~80% is players and 10% is luck/injuries/fixtures etc.

Geelong owes its 3 premierships to father son rules and Stephen Wells more than bomber thompson. So much reflected glory on that guy who amost got the sack in 2006.

Saints had a pretty good team and Lyon came along and added a bit of coaching to get it to grand finals.

Richo though was a knee jerk reaction to the Watters fiasco. He was rated less than Watters and Watters was a disaster anyway!!

It was all Schneider, Roo, Fisher, Dempster, and Montagna who were in the bests every week even in 2014-2017.

To credit this guy is a joke.

Even last year Saints didn’t win a single game or just won 1 game without Riewoldt. And to think this coaching group thought the team was ready for finals! I don’t know about Thomas supposedly snorting some but these guys were clearly on a different planet.

Look at last year videos or for any games during the Riewoldt era. Nobody needed foot skills. Just kick it in Roo’s direction and he’ll time it for a boundary spoil or mark the damned thing.

Such a joke when no quality FA / big name players were recruited.

Buckley is an average coach. The Recruiment team has just loaded their midfield with so many guns that it doesn’t matter what s*** game plan they’ve got.

Sidebottom, treloar, Stephenson, De Goey, Phillips, Pendlebury, Et al.

A lot of them by getting quality from GWS.

They might even win a premiership all because they have so many good players and not because Buckley is a great coach.

Of course the dunces at St Kilda may hire another coach based on a team performance when it is more due to the recruiting.

And that guy may be another Richo again.

So many coaches give their own strategies too much credit. Systems over people. Well, it’s all about the people.

Here though, we’ve got a team with average players and a coach whose 5-10% contribution is actually negative 5-10%. The team will instantly improve when Kingsley, Richo, et al are dumped.

Don’t buy in to “Kingsley is highly rated” BS. Check the record. He’s the transition coach and the saints transition sucks. Sydney won 2012 premiership because of slingshot. Aussie Jones and Gram also broke the lines. Saints 2018 move the ball out of their backline like a constipated person trying to pass stool.

Schwab was “highly rated” as well by ITKs as well. The saints forward line was disfunctional in 2008. He got replaced by Tudor in 2009 and Saints made the GF.

[shanegrambeau]

Great responses. The stand outs seem to be for me,

1) Richo isn't doing anything more/less/differently in '18 as he did in '17 and '16
2) The leadership and role-modeling effects of Roo, Fisher, Joey and co. simply evaporated and mean diddly now. (possibly, it stunted the potential of the current crop to develop leadership because they relied on the old guard and that the footy honchos at St Kilda pushed Joey and Roo to leave because they knew suspected this? (mmm...maybe far-fetched?)
3) Fixtures and injuries played a major part.
4) Carey's point about the 'playing above themselves' might mean little more than that frenetic, 'manic pressure' is just youth, and is not sustainable
5) The natural arc of development of some of our promising players has been undernourished or in some way it hasn't been cohesive or team-like and so these players fell away.

Not an attractive set of dynamics to welcome a new coach, as is often the way. What state were Hawthorn in when Clarko took over? Geelong with Scott?

[Linton Lodger]

That's a good question.

I certainly think that performing beyond expectations in 2016 is a significant factor in where we are now. Particularly from the viewpoint of development.

Suddenly we were in Finals contention at the pointy end of the season, I suppose the Club had to go for it. Subsequently win/loss became the priority rather than development of kids. This with the enhanced expectations continued into 2017. It was evident in one interview with Richo in 2016, that he was uncomfortable with Finals talk. Tony74 even posted here at the time saying that we weren't ready yet and he was right. We weren't ready yet, we were still inconsistent over games and within games, but were winning enough games to be well in contention.

I still strongly believe that we tanked against Gold Coast that year, the game that cost us a Finals berth. Whether we tanked or not, its probably better that we lost that game otherwise expectations would have become crazy and overestimated. The players been allowed to break routine and hang in Cafes a few hours before the game and Mav Weller allowed the indulgence of doing a Newspaper spread about meditation. Those pieces take the better part of a day to get done!

Its a chicken or the egg question. Was our overachievement due to a young list that was well coached or because we had talent that shone through despite the Coaching? The reality was that despite 12 wins, 4 of them were against Carlton and Essendon (both not competitive in 2016), meaning we were really an 8-10 win team rather than a 10-12 win team. Sill somewhat ahead of schedule, but not as far ahead as 12 wins would suggest.

I think regardless how we rate Richo, I think its clear that he's far from being the only reason for our situation.

[Joffa Burns]

The more i read here the more I am convinced that they need to get Roo back as an assistant coach then the real coach.
Every player on our list would respect and play for him.

Like Essendon with Hird, Brisbane & Voss, Collingwood & Buckey (until this year).

Being a great player and leader doesn’t make a great coach.

Jeans, Hafey, Clarkson, Berveridge were not great players.

And this whole saints thing, how about someone experienced who has been involved in a premiership?

Clarkson didn’t play for the Hawks.

Sorry Bruce nothing personal, I just tire of these bring saints back to the club threads. How about we bring in people who know how to win a bloody premiership.

[SaintPav]

The more i read here the more I am convinced that they need to get Roo back as an assistant coach then the real coach.
Every player on our list would respect and play for him.

Like Essendon with Hird, Brisbane & Voss, Collingwood & Buckey (until this year).

Being a great player and leader doesn’t make a great coach.

Jeans, Hafey, Clarkson, Berveridge were not great players.

And this whole saints thing, how about someone experienced who has been involved in a premiership?

Clarkson didn’t play for the Hawks.

Sorry Bruce nothing personal, I just tire of these bring saints back to the club threads. How about we bring in people who know how to win a bloody premiership.

It’s not like the club has never tried it:

Jezza, Watson (not as a coach), Blight.

[Yorkeys]

Mentally graph this set:
2014 win % 18
2015 win % 27
2016 win % 55
2017 win % 50
2018 win % 23; last five games % = 20 we lose the last 2 games the 5 game trend will be 0%.
You need a 60% win ratio to even make the finals. Richo has never got us there even in his best years. His range is 18 - 55 % and declining at the top end, which doesn't cut it. You can see why Finnis extended him he thought 2018 was going to be at least 60% (why? where was improvement coming from?) and was dazzled by the Tigers result. But that was based on false assumptions (no elite footy playing/coaching background, just general industry admin you see). Now they are stuck in freefall and don't seem smart enough to cut their losses, just doubling down: lawyer brinkmanship not economist or accountant hard nosed analysis. You also need to factor in player fatigue with a coach as EPL clubs do when results are bad; they reboot when result go deep south over two years, nothing personal you just don't fit anymore. Going to the cellar is a bigger problem for them than a small chance of success with someone that has not delivered in 5 years. At the moment the downside of moving Richo on is pretty small - he has no credits like a finals game or any stars that he has developed to fall back on. Engineers, Scientists and Accountants make the best managers because they can analyse data and industry best practice not just indulge in moot court rhetoric (make him the best he can be! join the marines, eh). Are there any management units in a law degree? We are run by lawyers aren't we? We are in freefall aren't we? The argument will be with a fit full list we will make the finals in 2019. Well I hope so, but that assumes the coach is a gun and I'd like to hear that argued in court and cross examined.

[Bruce G McAbee]

I rate Reiwoldt in the Barassi mold. He was a great player because of his work rate, not that he was an overly gifted player. He just worked his butt off.
Personally, I think Brisbane made an error in sacking Voss because he was starting to be a good coach.
He should come back as an assistant 1st though. By the way Jezza did win a premiership as a coach.

[Enrico_Misso]

I rate Reiwoldt in the Barassi mold. He was a great player because of his work rate, not that he was an overly gifted player. He just worked his butt off.

[Cairnsman]

A good run with injuries in 2016/17 would have been very helpful as it is for all of the 18 teams however isn't it even more important for a very young and developing team. Especially a team that lacks depth and is short 2 or 3 established players let alone A graders or elite players.

Have we been a victim of our own success during 16/17?

Just gotta keep plugging away at recruitment and development. Who the head coach is while the club is trying to tick these boxes over the next 2 to 3 years may be less important.

[CURLY]

A good run with injuries in 2016/17 would have been very helpful as it is for all of the 18 teams however isn't it even more important for a very young and developing team. Especially a team that lacks depth and is short 2 or 3 established players let alone A graders or elite players.

Have we been a victim of our own success during 16/17?

Just gotta keep plugging away at recruitment and development. Who the head coach is while the club is trying to tick these boxes over the next 2 to 3 years may be less important.

You could argue the above about a victim of overachieving. Collingwood finished behind us only on percentage but there draw was far easier.

[Saintmatt]

Mentally graph this set:
2014 win % 18
2015 win % 27
2016 win % 55
2017 win % 50
2018 win % 23; last five games % = 20 we lose the last 2 games the 5 game trend will be 0%.
You need a 60% win ratio to even make the finals. Richo has never got us there even in his best years. His range is 18 - 55 % and declining at the top end, which doesn't cut it. You can see why Finnis extended him he thought 2018 was going to be at least 60% (why? where was improvement coming from?) and was dazzled by the Tigers result. But that was based on false assumptions (no elite footy playing/coaching background, just general industry admin you see). Now they are stuck in freefall and don't seem smart enough to cut their losses, just doubling down: lawyer brinkmanship not economist or accountant hard nosed analysis. You also need to factor in player fatigue with a coach as EPL clubs do when results are bad; they reboot when result go deep south over two years, nothing personal you just don't fit anymore. Going to the cellar is a bigger problem for them than a small chance of success with someone that has not delivered in 5 years. At the moment the downside of moving Richo on is pretty small - he has no credits like a finals game or any stars that he has developed to fall back on. Engineers, Scientists and Accountants make the best managers because they can analyse data and industry best practice not just indulge in moot court rhetoric (make him the best he can be! join the marines, eh). Are there any management units in a law degree? We are run by lawyers aren't we? We are in freefall aren't we? The argument will be with a fit full list we will make the finals in 2019. Well I hope so, but that assumes the coach is a gun and I'd like to hear that argued in court and cross examined.

Summers is an Accountant; Finnis a Lawyer

[spert]

I think the Roo, Monty thing is over rated. We didn't get to any finals and just had a good patch against some under-performing teams. It's up to the coach to get the winning team ethic happening, but we have become lazy and under-performing. The club know bloody well that Richo is no good, but are too weak to take the next step to solve that particular problem.

[one point]

The more i read here the more I am convinced that they need to get Roo back as an assistant coach then the real coach.
Every player on our list would respect and play for him.

I agree he could make a real contribution to the club but l would prefer to see him join the Board as the Director of football.

[saintadamski]

Roo and Monty coached us from the field, it is as simple as that. Now they're gone we are finding that the Emporer has no clothes.

Pretty much true....

Roo & Monty came from a culture of hard work, game plans, and 'non-negotiables' in your performance and attitude on the field. They, along with the few others remaining from that successful 09-10 era were a strong presence on the field and training track to drive the younger players.

Once they left, there was a vacuum on the field and training track, which was only matched by the vacuum between the ears of our coach Richo.

Their leaving has exposed the coach as the fraud that he his. Incredibly, our stupid Management and Admin, asleep at the wheel, gave this guy a 2 year extension, when there were many clear warning signs that this coach was not up to the task.

Hey why do you need Rooey and Joey as leaders when you have Captain Geary?!
.........HAHAHAHHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA