Seb Ross and patience

[BigMart]

I think Seb (23) or James Sicily for that matter should have taught us a thing or two about patience.
He was written off

Eli (21) is now written off, Minchinton (22) written off, Membrey (22) has been written off, Wright (22), Murdoch (22) at different times, Hickey (25 - by me)
Now Lonie (19) has been questioned. Dunstan (20) not improving, Acres has a ?? Longer (23) Mac (19 being ?) Goddard (19)

Basically anyone not getting a regular game...

It must be remembered that any players play their best footy 23->28
If they are inconsistent, it could be for a variety of reasons
1/ ability... Not up to it (yet)
2/ size/strength/athletic ability .... Still not strong enough, a big factor in talls
3/ fitness ... Still getting there
4/ injury .... Can't play at full potential
5/ opportunity ... Can't get a look in

Another player as an example would be Mark Hutchins. All players develop at different rates ... It's their projection at 23-25yo that is important.

I have written off many players early(ish)
4 for attitude (Sweeney, White, Cahill, Lovett)
1 for courage (something that is innate) Cripps
A few for ability (Howard, Pattison)
Some for athletic weaknesses
Sipposs, Hickey, Dunstan, Connors,

But at the end of the day - the question is can they play footy
And the best indicator of that is...

At the level below, a young player should find it quite easy to use his ability to influence a game consistently and be a damaging player (not just handy). At the top level they just need to show glimpses, and with experience become a little more consistent and the odd very good performance. By 21/22 they should be looking towards dominating the twos and looking to cement a spot.

Armitage, Tom Lynch, Ross were clearly standouts at Sandy early in there careers, as is Eli, Minchington, Acres

Some players I've overrated
McQualter, Raph, Miles, Eddy, Watts, Brooks
They never really dominated the twos consistently or cemented a spot for a long period.
At the moment I really rate MacKezie and White.

On the other hand

We are far too quick to proclaim future champions in Year 1. Often kids start impressively and wane for s bit.
Stanley, Siposs, Whote, Wright, Templeton, Dunstan, Lonie, Sinclair, Goddard
Pumped up way too much during their first year or two. Sometimes game or two...
I'll tell you know, Gresham will have a poor patch in the next 18 months. His straight line speed, endurance and size will be questioned. But at 22/23 he'll probably be in the top 5 of the B&F

Sometimes we need to hold our horses a bit with over the top proclamations or condemnations

point?

We shouldn't write off Eli, Wright, Murdoch and others, they'll likely do a Seb Ross

[Darth Vader]

Very sensible post. We have quite a few that are better than VFL standard but not quite ready for AFL. Expect them to be ready with time and patience after a good apprenticeship in 2s.

[To the top]

Agree.

If we can support and educate so that they are performing at AFL level in the VFL the benefits are immense.

How many Seconds games did Michael Tuck of Hawthorn play?

Not saying all should be retained because the demographics of system and injection of talent requirements do not allow that BUT you do give those on your List every opportunity to display the reasons they were Drafted at the top level in the first place - and if that takes time then so be it.

We have cast off some (particularly younger) players too early in my view - but we have the List we have now and where our top 22 (including Carlisle and Freeman) is pretty competitive.

Not to say we can not and should not improve tho!!!

Because we have to catch the best - and then improve more so we are not caught.

So it never ends!!!

[Legendary]

Great post, fully agree

People bagged RL for saying that "kids take 4 years to be AFL ready", but if anything he was under stating it - you really can't judge a footballer until 23/24, which is 4-6 years in the system.

Of course, they need opportunities in that time. Minchington is a good example- highly rated for his training/VFL performances but injuries and form of others kept him out of the team for a couple of years, so he didn't get the opportunity to show what he could do.

For this reason, it's important to have a strong development structure with coaches who aren't too quick to write-off players and are capable of judging when a kid needs more time or work - Richo so far seems to have a good handle on this, along with Hudson, Gilbee, McPhee and others

[BigMart]

It never does end

But unless there is a dire need, once you've put together a top 4-6 list... You need to stay there for many a year to contend, not try and steal a one off flag.

Syd, Geel, Hawthorn have stayed at the top for a decade and it will continue

Once you are up there, you continually massage the list/team
One trade per year (needs) always use a first round selection (unless traded for an u23)
Never trade two of your first three picks in one year
Always replace fringe or older players with young talented players every year.

[CURLY]

It never does end

But unless there is a dire need, once you've put together a top 4-6 list... You need to stay there for many a year to contend, not try and steal a one off flag.

Syd, Geel, Hawthorn have stayed at the top for a decade and it will continue

Once you are up there, you continually massage the list/team
One trade per year (needs) always use a first round selection (unless traded for an u23)
Never trade two of your first three picks in one year
Always replace fringe or older players with young talented players every year.

Not that it matters but Ferguss Watts was a gun in the SANFL the season before we traded for him and was a very good VFL player before injury. The kid was a gun.

[Griggsy]

Good post.

I'm hoping we pursue acres for a long time, he definitely looks like a slow burn at top level.
Lonie and templeton, they have what it takes but currently lack the stength (imo) to do what the game plan requires, a couple of preseasons should remedy that. Whether these two and minchinton and Sinclair can all play in the same team i dunno, but I think we may have to play a couple in Vfl in the future to make room for players not yet at the club.

[Goose is king]

Great post agreed. The problem with not writing people off like Curren, Saunders and Shenton (guys I've written off) is you have to delist someone otherwise guys like Fisher and Dempster would have to go.
I'd hate to be a list manager as good guys who give 100 percent need to be tapped on the shoulder

[BigMart]

Fergus was promising.

Possibly not as much as Jarryd Allen was in 2007/08 in the VFL

Alas

Both done at 21

[saintsRrising]

Good OP... some players burst onto the seen. Most take a while to bloom, and at different rates. Some seize there chance latter, and sometimes even afrer swapping clubs.

But BigMart I think you often confuse fans getting excited about a player, and particularly a young player, with them having "proclaimed them as a future champion".

One might have watched say Dunstan or Lonie and think yes that they will be a long-term first 22 player. It does not mean that that they are proclaiming them as future champions, even if one or two do.

[saintspremiers]

The mafia man (Sicily) was picked at number 56 by the Hawks. Freddie Mecury's cousin (Puopolo) was a late pick also. They do it so regularly, no wonder the term "Fourthorn" has evolved.

[skeptic]

I don't remember Armitage really dominating consistently the the VFL the way some of those other names you mentioned have. Don't get me wrong he had his share of good games and some great ones to but guys like Curren... Eli the way he's playing this season and several others over the last few seasons have had more prolific VFL careers then Armo did.

My point is that player progression often does not occur in a linear fashion. It doesn't go gradually get better in the VFL, be consistently great, get promoted to AFL then gradually cement their spots.

Some players need to play in the AFL, adjust to pace... Force themselves to work harder because they have to to keep up etc and after patches here and there then take back what they've learnt to the VFL and start stepping up there more consistently.

I don't ever remember James Gwilt being a consistently great VFL player either... He served a long apprenticeship up and down from AFL to VFL before he suddenly found his knack... 3rd defender, often handed the ball so that he could hit team mates on the chest 50m away.

Others all of a sudden have a break out game and don't look back. Could be what's happening with Membrey

Patience is important... Players need chances too though. They need the opportunity to both succeed and fail... Learn, try again and given every opportunity to improve.

[BigMart]

Maybe I should go back and look for some old posts on

Rhys 'the next big thing' Stanley
Arryn 'BJ' Siposs
Luke 'Lenny Hayes' Dunstan
Last week someone suggest Billings is better than NDS ever was...

Last year after a game Paddy was even compared to Tony Lockett

Just this week
Gresham is the next
Boomer, Sam Michell, even I called him Milney after that goal.

We are ridiculous when we forecast a 5 game kid as the next ... Who ever

[BigMart]

Armitage was Third in Caseys B&F in his first Year

Runner Up in Sandringhams B&F in 2009 (third year) in 13 of 18 games.

He was probably the most dominant VFL player of that lot!

[felix]

Gresham = star ...yep I know I've gone early.lol

[terry smith rules]

interesting discussion

I believe you need to turn over 6-8 a year, so it is difficult to hang on to all the slow burners

On the way though players must be meeting some kpi's, Eli is probably doing that in the VFL now

I still believe we have too many smallish players and just maybe some of the slow burners have gone past the fast out of the gates. Which is great because it means a guy like Sinclair or Lonie is going to have to really do something in the next couple of months to push up on the slow burners.

In a round about way what I am trying to say is you need some imagination when looking at a player, however in trade value it might be hard for another club to see that

[Con Gorozidis]

Interesting discussion and I think it generally (on average) takes longer to get up to AFL standard these days. 5 pre-seasons is now the norm. Sure there are some exceptions but i am talking averages. I dont think Seb was actuallly written off by many. The coach always loved him and I remember that he dominated games during the 2015 pre-season and then got injured (bad hamstring) which set him back.

I also think Eli is showing excellent progress. 3 pre-seasons and now consistently dominating at VFL level. Eli is one who I think will make it.
I think we should really only write guys off after say 5-6 pre-seasons. Tommy Curren is probably now a write-off (5 pre-seasons).

But good OP because sometimes we forget some of these blokes have only had 3 or 4 pre-seasons. Some only 1 or 2.

[BigMart]

If you have a healthy list
3-5 players
If you have a poor list
6-8

Maybe a rookie upgrade if warranted

Back to back premiership team will always be a touch different

I think one trade per year
Definitely 3 from the draft. Minimum

Drastic changes every year cause instability

I think a coach needs about 4 years at a club. If successful another 2/3
Assistant coaches 2 or maybe 3 years before new intell

Just my opinion

Always need 1 or 2 new talented players out of all that.

Slow burners too keep
Are the ones who give you reason to keep them
2 rookies

[To the top]

I know for a fact that Adelaide were most annoyed to lose Watts - and that Port Adelaide were disappointed to lose Brooks.

But both were subsequently restricted by injury altho I was of the view that Brooks would have been an asset as a forward taking the ruck contests in that area of the ground.

He only got one go at it - in the final round of the Minor Round and did very well but was then dropped for the final the following week (did we lose and that was the end of Thomas?)

Siposs was chosen in the VFL side, defeated by the SANFL recently but did not play due to injury. So his VFL form must be reasonable.

Spencer White would have been a "cream on the cake X factor" floating around the forward line - but now we have Bruce, McCartin and Membrey who is currently showing that he should be there - apart from that miss from directly in front last weekend.

[st.byron]

Emma Quayle in 'The Age', April 23 this year :

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/r ... odhsg.html

"It's early on a Thursday morning and Seb Ross is sitting in a corner of the common room at St Kilda, as teammates turn up to work and staff members fill their coffee cups at the kitchenette a few metres away. He's talking about what it was like to get to the club five years ago, thinking he knew how to work hard, only to realise on his very first day of training that he was nowhere near fit enough to play the one position he knew how to play, or even any other one."

[BigMart]

Siposs and Spencer were enigmatic at VFL level... But never dominant consistently.. Both had tools, both had weaknesses... Injury hurt Siposs a bit

The VFL rep team would probably not beat Sandringham at full strength IMO

On any given weekend 25 of the best 30 in the comp are AFL aligned players.

the VFL team is just a conglomerate of VFL boys, often recently delisted guys get a gig because they are fitter and just out of the system and have some talent. Others were guys not quite up to the level.

Brooks never realised his talent... Couple of reasons

Watts broke his ankle so bad at Port (I was 15 metres away from it) he basically couldn't run on it three years later... He still played at collegians and kicked some goals, but was only a 'bear in the square'

[supersaints]

Interesting discussion and I think it generally (on average) takes longer to get up to AFL standard these days. 5 pre-seasons is now the norm. Sure there are some exceptions but i am talking averages. I dont think Seb was actuallly written off by many. The coach always loved him and I remember that he dominated games during the 2015 pre-season and then got injured (bad hamstring) which set him back.

I also think Eli is showing excellent progress. 3 pre-seasons and now consistently dominating at VFL level. Eli is one who I think will make it.
I think we should really only write guys off after say 5-6 pre-seasons. Tommy Curren is probably now a write-off (5 pre-seasons).

But good OP because sometimes we forget some of these blokes have only had 3 or 4 pre-seasons. Some only 1 or 2.

Agree....the five pre seasons usually equates to the 23 year old window that then usually peaks around 26.... Then usually drop off from about 28. But it's also got a lot to do with injuries (like Seb as you mentioned) opportunities and starting age.
IMO we have a very, very good group to work with at present , we don't need to get rid of players like Eli (for example) just like the calls to get rid of Seb were way too early.
We just need to keep recruiting the way we are, let natural progression take care of our aging stars We are already showing signs that the forward line will be more than capable once Roo hangs up the boots.
I also think that our midfield is going to be a lot stronger than what most think once Gresh, Billings and co have another two pre seasons

[The Fireman]

I remember watching Robert Harvey in his early days and thinking the kid just won't make it.

[bigcarl]

I remember watching Robert Harvey in his early days and thinking the kid just won't make it.

I thought the same on BJ early days. Fact is they take time to grow in the job and sometimes the transformation is astonishing.

[saynta]

Agree.

If we can support and educate so that they are performing at AFL level in the VFL the benefits are immense.

How many Seconds games did Michael Tuck of Hawthorn play?

Not saying all should be retained because the demographics of system and injection of talent requirements do not allow that BUT you do give those on your List every opportunity to display the reasons they were Drafted at the top level in the first place - and if that takes time then so be it.

We have cast off some (particularly younger) players too early in my view - but we have the List we have now and where our top 22 (including Carlisle and Freeman) is pretty competitive.

Not to say we can not and should not improve tho!!!

Because we have to catch the best - and then improve more so we are not caught.

So it never ends!!!

I wouldn't be including a boy, yet to play a game, in our top 22. How do you do that?