Is recycled working?

[St Ick]

This has been bugging me for some time and I'm really not all that sure that our gamble on our recycled players is working. I've compiled a bit of a list since the 2000 drafts so we can see what has happened over the past 10 years (I haven't included players we've redrafted or elevated):

2000 - Callaghan, Capuano, Gehrig, Hamill, Lawrence, Gale, Powell (R), Voss.
2001 - Black, Knobel
2002 - Brooks, Penny, Powell (S)
2003 - Gram, Guerra, Murray
2004 - Fiora, Ackland, McGough, Stone
2005 - Watts
2006 - Birss, Gardiner (M), Clarke, Attard
2007 - Schneider, Dempster, King, Gardiner (C), Gehrig,
2008 - Ray, Begley, Dawson
2009 - Lovett, Peake, Smith, Pattison.

I'll break it down a little more with some of the choices I am satisfied with:
Gehrig/Hamill - both were big time players before their move and gave good service to the club (talking about first time we got Gehrig) - we did know what we were getting already though
Voss - did his job but retired prematurely
Black - was good for us while he was with us but could've gotten a 10 year 200 game player instead of him.
Gram - big tick for this choice, a bloke with next to no AFL experience from Brissie, we did well with this one
Gardiner (M) - gamble payed off for him
Schneider - been good, I suppose Dempster was just the sweetener but he still took a kids spot
Ray - happy with his output
Dawson - jury still out
09 draftees - too early to tell but Peake is onesided, poor decisions, Lovett, don't go there, Pattison, not good enough for Richmond (should I go on!), Smith - could be anything but comes with a question mark over durability.

We've given up a fair bit in the form of draft picks for these players (see Watts, Brooks, Lovett etc), so over the past 10 drafts, we've picked up 37 players from other clubs, I know you win some/lose some but looking at these lists, but there are many many misses compared to only a small handful of wins here.

What does everyone think?

[bigred]

I was a fan of Dewey Voss.

[Griggsy]

Last year would suggest otherwise with an outstanding regular season. Yes we lost when it mattered but through no fault of recruiting.

[St Ick]

Last year would suggest otherwise with an outstanding regular season. Yes we lost when it mattered but through no fault of recruiting.

Correct we had a wonderful season last year and are promising the same this year (despite a couple of hiccups) - but my point was that we have missed the mark a lot. In no way am I saying we lost the grand final because of the recruits who played - obviously I've missed the mark on my point if thats how it came across.

A big emphasis is made on the success of St Kilda recycling players but I just wanted to point out that maybe we haven't been so successful with only 25% of recycled players making it to the point where you'd say they had an impact for our club.

Oh, and I was a massive fan of Vossy also - a bit sad the way his career ended I thought.

[Mr Magic]

Last year would suggest otherwise with an outstanding regular season. Yes we lost when it mattered but through no fault of recruiting.

Correct we had a wonderful season last year and are promising the same this year (despite a couple of hiccups) - but my point was that we have missed the mark a lot. In no way am I saying we lost the grand final because of the recruits who played - obviously I've missed the mark on my point if thats how it came across.

A big emphasis is made on the success of St Kilda recycling players but I just wanted to point out that maybe we haven't been so successful with only 25% of recycled players making it to the point where you'd say they had an impact for our club.

Oh, and I was a massive fan of Vossy also - a bit sad the way his career ended I thought.

Is the percentage of drafted kids that make it any better/worse than the above 25%?

[St Ick]

Not sure of figures but surely you'd know what to expect from a 23 year old from another list rather than a 17/18 year old kid so you'd expect a much higher percentage (or at least I do). And thats 25% who were serviceable, not world beaters.

[SainterK]

[bergholt]

Is the percentage of drafted kids that make it any better/worse than the above 25%?

Non-recycled draftees:

2000 (2/5): Riewoldt, Koschitzke, Wulf, Oliver (r), Berry (r)
2001 (4/9): Ball, Clarke X, Dal Santo, Maguire, Montagna, Houlihan, Dicketts (r), Schwarze B (r), Jones (r)
2002 (1/4): Goddard, Ferguson, Fisher L, Barham (r)
2003 (1/3): Clarke R, Fisher S, Pfitzner (r)
2004 (0/3): McQualter, Gwilt, McDonnell (r)
2005 (1/5): Gilbert, Rix, Raymond, Sweeney, Corr (r)
2006 (1/9): Armitage, Howard, Allen, Jones (r), Van Rheenen (r), Eddy (r), Wall (r), Geary (r), Attard (r)
2007 (0/6): McEvoy, Steven, Connors, Chivers (r), Miles (r), Haretuku (r)
2008 (0/10): Lynch, Stanley, Heyne, Smith A, Cahill, Simpkin (r), Gaertner (r), Tungatalum (r), McGarry (r), McGrath (r)
2009 (0/5): Winmar, Johnson, Hutchings (r), Archer (r), Walsh (r)

Up to this point we've got 10 out of 59 as unqualified successes. 17%. If we be a bit more lenient and include R Clarke, McQualter, Gwilt then we're up to 13 out of 59 which is 22%, maybe also X Clarke, L Fisher and McEvoy gives us 16 of 59 - 27%, pretty close to the same as recycled players.

Of course, that includes 26 rookies of which only one has been an unqualified success (CJ) and only three others (Eddy, Geary, Attard) played more than a handful of games. But the original recycled list included a few rookies as well.

So from this data recycled players are no worse than draftees. But obviously you get fewer games out of a 24 year old recycled player than a draftee. (Maybe that should be the next way to measure it.)

[WinnersOnly]

Drafting of marginal recycled players is OK when the club doesn't give away early draft selections.... eg Gardiner, Dawson, Smith. Otherwise history tells us it has been disastrous.

The only real sucess of a 2nd round trade has been Farren RAY and Jason GRAM who have provided a higher return than traded. The other two were Gehrig & Hamill.

All other early trades of 1st or 2nd round trades have been diabolical for the SAINTS.

Fergus WATTS (Unlucky)
Barry BROOKS (Lost two draft selection on this champ - PORT are still laughing)
Luke PENNY (Dogs traded him due to his knees)
Andrew LOVETT (say no more)

Thats just the more recent failures....

[Moods]

Where not the only club though. Blues picked up ACKLAND off us.

Many of the blokes who were recruited we got for nothing and were only there to fill a void. ie Clarke from Adelaide. Did his job and then retired.

Bit harsh on Voss - I thought he was a star in 04 and 05 when we were flying. Toughest most courageous bloke in the team.

[ThePunter]

2000 - Callaghan, Capuano, Gehrig, Hamill, Lawrence, Gale, Powell (R), Voss.

We got one quality year out of Callaghan, nothing out of Capuano, Gale and Powell were cleaned out by Thomas, and Lawrence did himself in, but otherwise his 2002 was very good. Gehrig and Hamill clear wins.

2001 - Black, Knobel

Black was very good at his time at St Kilda, especially in 2004, and Knobel was no more than servicable.

2002 - Brooks, Penny, Powell (S)

Powell was a win, Penny was good for our win loss record when he played, and Brooks was finished mentally once he did his knee.

2003 - Gram, Guerra, Murray

Gram a clear win, Murray was OK for a rookie pick, and Guerra should not have been let go, but reinvented like at Hawthorn.

2004 - Fiora, Ackland, McGough, Stone

We got one good season out of Fiora (coincidentally the only year we missed the finals in his time), Ackland was very good until he hurt his knee in late 2005, Stone (wasn't he 2003?) wasn't much and McGough had the game pass him by.

2005 - Watts

Watts was ruined by a freak spiral fracture of his lower leg.
2006 - Birss, Gardiner (M), Clarke, Attard

Doc Clarke was a short term rental, Attard was going OK until he did his ACL, Birss probably didn't get a fair go, and Micky G continues to impress - a win considering the chances he would come good.

2007 - Schneider, Dempster, King, Gardiner (C), Gehrig,

Schneider/Dempster a win, and King too, and we didn't give up to much for Charlie Gardiner.

2008 - Ray, Begley, Dawson

Ray a win, Dawson probably a win (considering he was a rookie pick), Begley got homesick and was probably insurance anyway.

2009 - Lovett, Peake, Smith, Pattison.

Lovett the biggest disaster on the list, Peake so far so good, Pattison is insurance, and Jesse Smith TBD.