The Pelchen Method

[Animal Enclosure]

Apologies for yet another list management thread (that's all we've got until the draft!) but I thought it was interesting (and heartbreaking) to look at where Hawthorn are now & where we are.

I won't rehash what's happened in the last four seasons that's taken us from the up & comer to the also ran. What I want to discuss is how Hawthorn have built this team that is seemingly on the brink of 4-5 years of dominance.

As much as I think Chris Pelchen is a tool of a bloke, he & Clarkson mapped out a plan to build a side systematically & stuck to the plan with grim determination (with the exception of drafting Stuart Dew).

I am firmly of the belief that we need to take a few steps back to have a fair dinkum crack at getting at Hawthorn, Geelong and the up & comers (Carlton, Richmond, Essendon & West Coast).

We have a fantastic core of players that are in the early to mid 20's. What we lack is the absolute guns coming up to support them (due to our finishes in top 9 over the past 4 seasons). While Armo, McEvoy, etc will be solid senior players over the next few years, I believe we need to take some big risks to get the top talent from the draft into our club in significant numbers.

With all the trade talk going around about Dal, Kosi & Joey I must admit that I would not be shattered to see the club take the unpopular route & pull one if not two triggers.

There are a number of clubs with top 5 picks this year that have previously loaded up with kids & believe that they are only an experienced player away from being back in the 8. This is also a strong draft that can set a club up like 2004 did for Hawthorn.

It is an undoubted risk to trade a proven (if underperforming) player for an unproven kid. It is also pretty certain that we are in for some pain if we don't make some serious changes.

We cannot trade our duds for pick. It just won't happen. Hawthorn got very lucky when they gave up Nathan Thompson & Jon Hay. At the time Hawks supporters were spewing. Give up key position players that were damn good players at their best but hadn't reached those heights since. Ring any bells????

We need to be ruthless in pursuit of a flag. No room for sentiment. Thompson played some bloody good footy for North & I'm sure that Hawks supporters were hurting big time as they were getting thrashed at the same time. We may have to sit through Dal carving us up in a red & black jumper. Or Kosi in teal and black kicking a bag. However in 2011 & we're watching Michael Hurley charging out of defence, giving it off to Jack Ziebell who then hits Roo on the chest, we'll feel pretty damn excited.

Build around the core. Get young kids that will follow Roo's outstanding leadership. Systematically fill the needs that we have. Get rid of those who are not prepared to pay the price. Get that cup.

We have lost some huge names in the past that we couldn't have conceived at the time would result in being in the benefit of the club. Who would have thought that Plugger leaving would see the club in a Grand Final three years later? Barry Hall leaving? Spider? All favorites at the club at stages that saw us become a better team.

Would I be sad to see Dal/Kosi/Joey go? You bet. But I'd be pretty excited seeing us add a Hurley/Hartlett/Ziebell, etc to the core.

[FortiusQuoFidelius]

Spot on Animal!

[Sainter_Dad]

We all know how strong Geelong are - is it because they are playing more for the jumper than the paycheck? We need players who believe in the R,W and B and will leave nothing on the field - and unfortunately we are losing the greatest of these in Robert Harvey - who will fill his motivational shoes?

[spert]

Clarkson's game requires players who are good accountable gut-runners and who can use the ball well, and a quite a few of them. He took a couple of years to get it right, but having good targets up forward does help, and he has at least three options in the forward line. We really lacked a good full forward this year, and also lacked midfielders who could break the lines and move deep into the forward line -its OK picking up rubbish possessions as a receiver, but it doesn't do any good in crunch finals where you have to really bust your boiler. I've watched our lead feet midfield get crunched in the recent prelim finals when it counted during the game, and it is definately time to wipe the slate clean and take a new approach.

[Thinline]

I'm hearing you, but personally I'd rather see Armo/Eddy/Jack Steven etc hitting Riewoldt/Kos/Allen or whoever else lace out, 35 from goal, no angle!

And why not? They CAN be good enough.

Although I'm desperate for us to have a more even list, I honestly believe we'll be rewarded for persistence and faith in what we have. Chopping and changing rather than tweaking makes me nervous.

Hawthorn's one thing, (and I'll happily stand corrected) but Lions and Cats showed faith in what they had and were/have been rewarded with long term success were they not?

[Animal Enclosure]

Talent Sainter Dad... that's what it comes down to.

Geelong & Hawthorn have heaps of it & we don't.

Put it this way, say we manage to get pick 5 from ESS for Dal. And say we do get pick 4 from Port for Kosi & Joey. In addition to our pick 13 we now have 3 top 20 picks & end up with three of the best 18 year olds in the country.

Dal, Kosi & Joey have great years in 2009 with their new clubs. We drop out of the eight as we get games into McEvoy, Armitage, Steven, Allen & the 2008 draft crop.

2009 draft is the last uncompromised draft before GC17 (with the exception of the raising of the draft age to 18). We have another crack at adding 4-5 quality kids.

2010 GC17 come in. We now have a hugely different list with Roo, BJ, Bally, Goose (fingers crossed), Gilbo, Raph, etc aged from 25-28. Lenny is the veteran at 30. We also have a crop of exceptionally talented 19-21 year olds to not support but be the equals of our current guns. GC17 are throwing early picks around to attract some experienced players. STK have the luxury of looking at our experienced group & making decisions on whether some blokes are expendable (Will Armo be a top liner by then?, etc).

That draft will be an absolute belter due to the 17 year olds that were not eligible for the 2009 draft being up for grabs in addition to the 2010 group.

We continue to build for the future years & seriously stockpile some talent.

Will we miss Dal, Kosi & Joey then? Maybe...probably.. (I still miss Plugger!) but we may also have some serious depth due to getting as many top 20 picks as possible over the next two seasons.

The more I think about it the more I'm sold on the idea.

[Animal Enclosure]

I'm hearing you, but personally I'd rather see Armo/Eddy/Jack Steven etc hitting Riewoldt/Kos/Allen or whoever else lace out, 35 from goal, no angle!

And why not? They CAN be good enough.

Although I'm desperate for us to have a more even list, I honestly believe we'll be rewarded for persistence and faith in what we have. Chopping and changing rather than tweaking makes me nervous.

Hawthorn's one thing, (and I'll happily stand corrected) but Lions and Cats showed faith in what they had and were/have been rewarded with long term success were they not?

I hear you mate but it's just my opinion. I won't be having a crack at you or any others who think we can maintain the current core & keep quietly adding to the puzzle.

I like Armo's toughness but he's got to get a hell of a lot better at winning the ball & using it cleanly. I like Jacky Steven but I'm not sold on Eddy. Big heart, big engine, average pace & skills.

[Thinline]

Talent Sainter Dad... that's what it comes down to.

Geelong & Hawthorn have heaps of it & we don't.

I'm not trying to be unnecessarily argumentative, but sure people thought of Cats as overly laden with talent two years ago. To the contrary I recall people referring to them as soft, under-achieving, wasteful, disinterested plodders. But they persisted without too much if any significant change...

Hawthorn approached it differently - ruthless trading, drafting etc...

More than one way to get the job done?

Perhaps we need to forge our own path.

[suss]

You can't lose all three AE. You'd be trading away a large part of the club core.

I agree that all three are tradeable - given the right deal - but only one could go, two at most. And it wouldn't be Monti given our desperate lack of midfield runners.

I think the most logical thing to do is to draft three or four new fresh exciting kids. They don't have to be top ten picks - Dal wasn't, Monti wasn't - they just have to have potential.

If the club then wants to experiment with lower picks on Cousins et al then fine. I think we can all agree that the King/Schnieder/Dempster/M Garnider trading was worthwhile but importantly we kept high pick for McEvoy and Armitage.

If an exceptional deal is offered for Kosi or Dal, and I'm thinkg a top ten pick and a player of note, then fine, entertain it. But otherwise we need to aviod the extremes of either topping up or completely bottoming out.

[Animal Enclosure]

Talent Sainter Dad... that's what it comes down to.

Geelong & Hawthorn have heaps of it & we don't.

I'm not trying to be unnecessarily argumentative, but sure people thought of Cats as overly laden with talent two years ago. To the contrary I recall people referring to them as soft, under-achieving, wasteful, disinterested plodders. But they persisted without too much if any significant change...

Hawthorn approached it differently - ruthless trading, drafting etc...

More than one way to get the job done?

Perhaps we need to forge our own path.

You're right but Geelong pillaged the 2001 draft, got lucky with father/sun selections, traded popular players (Mahoney was very popular when they traded him in the Ottens deal) and also were very close to imploding at the end of 2006 (only very smart operators in Brian Cook and Frank Costa saw the benefit in maintaining the faith).

I would love to see Dal & Kosi raising the cup at St Kilda premiership players but I currently see them as a means to an end (ie Roo holding the Premiership Cup in Red White & Black!).

[St. Luke]

The trouble with us is we're hot and cold. Or confidence isn’t there, and quite clearly it wasn’t there on Saturday night.

We lack scoring ability form the midfield and our forward line doesn’t honestly scare many of the teams out there. The real reason Rewoildt will poll strongly in the Brownlow tonight is because he tries to do EVERYTHING and carry a great whack of passengers over the line each week!

Why we didn’t go into this season with MORE confidence is beyond me! We touched up a few good teams earlier on, won the pr-season cup, but were never at any point taken too seriously by anyone. Even a weakly looking Collingwood was feeling ANYTHING but worried at getting over the top of us during the finals.

Perhaps if we bulk up with some serious muscle and brawn, and get a more physical aspect to our game (something similar to Brisbane during their heyday) we might suddenly get some of that arrogance and flair about how we play. I’d love to see an arrogant and cocky St Kilda with the ability to belt teams from pillar to post and leave them knowing exactly who they’ve played. But then you wake up and remember that slap Birss put on an opponent a little while back – absolutely laughable! It certainly wasn’t the case when Aaron Hamill was playing! I dare say Lyon would have noticed this. Our core group is far too easily intimidated!

Whilst we have a few potentially good and upcoming young players coming up through the ranks, it’s going to take time for them to develop. I agree with not chopping and changing the list too much as it creates instability and uncertainty.

Our depth via Casey seems to be a serious issue. Especially when you are limited with bringing in a player like Fiora to replace someone like Ball, it’s a bit of a joke. But also at the end of the day I suppose we played a few kids this season. I honestly believe Clinton Jones has a stack to offer. Armitage and Gilbert have some flair about them also. We have some stars in the mix with these guys!

I’m a bit lost as far as where we go from here. Our injuries have been kept to a minimum this season and that’s brilliant, perhaps because of this it’ll help with players competing for a place in the side and give us the depth we so desperately need. Cousins would give us some mongrel and additional midfield pace, but I don’t like our chances of securing his services. The addition of another straight kicking forward option would be of massive benefit, and when saying that, it’s such a shame we can’t get any genuine on-field action out of Kosi! I suppose the bit I find the most disappointing is seeing Carlton rising up from the ashes. There seems to be an annoying buzz coming from that place. I must say, I feel a bit flat today.

[BigMart]

I am not a fan of copying others.......more a fan of being proactive...

Trading/Drafting/list-management.....there are NO secrets.....

If XXXXX player is going to be better for the organisation for YYYYY player.....make the swap....

Improving the list means

Bringing in fresh talent (best available)
Releasing players going backwards
Trading for structure

[kaos theory]

Would I be sad to see Dal/Kosi/Joey go? You bet. But I'd be pretty excited seeing us add a Hurley/Hartlett/Ziebell, etc to the core

So you want to trade 1, 2 or 3 proven, quality players, who have had one indifferent season, for kids with 'potential'. Yep that makes sense...

The ONLY way a trade of quality proven players works, if you can get a significant NET benefit. These players want to stay and succeed, they are not trying to get out, they all have significant upside.

We don't need a replacement of existing quality with potential, we need to ADD more quality.

[St. Luke]

It'll be interesting to see what Lyon brings to the table next season. He certainly seemed to be able to make some severe in-roads this season compared to last. 09 will be a telling season as to where we're going.

[Animal Enclosure]

Would I be sad to see Dal/Kosi/Joey go? You bet. But I'd be pretty excited seeing us add a Hurley/Hartlett/Ziebell, etc to the core

So you want to trade 1, 2 or 3 proven, quality players, who have had one indifferent season, for kids with 'potential'. Yep that makes sense...

The ONLY way a trade of quality proven players works, if you can get a significant NET benefit. These players want to stay and succeed, they are not trying to get out, they all have significant upside.

We don't need a replacement of existing quality with potential, we need to ADD more quality.

And that is my point Kaos... IMO opinion we won't add the absolute top quality without giving something up.

Whenever you trade a player for a draft pick it's a risk. It can have a huge payoff (WC trading Gehrig for pick 18 who happened to turn into Daniel Kerr) or it can blow up in your face.

I disagree that it's only one bad season for Kosi & Dal. Kosi's probs are all clearly related to injury. It's harsh I know but I don't believe he has recovered 100% from the Giansiracusa hit. Dal has had a number of lean periods over his career. There's no doubt that he is a very good player when he is 'on'. Why he can't be more consistently on is the issue.

Joey is the most frustrating IMO. He threatens to be a top liner but is like Dal. Just rarely performs when the pressure is on. Kicks the ball away too often, is he rated so highly because he is one of the few that can run with the ball??

If you look at the top 5 picks over the past 3 years the possibility of getting a dud player is quite unlikely.

I wasn't advocating trading all three by the way. My example was just to present what is potentially on offer.

As said, it's just my opinion, it won't happen anyway because clubs in general are quite conservative.

It would greatly surprise me if any of the 3 mentioned are traded. It's nice to dream & predict what if however.

[seano1]

No one has mentioned how our guys were constantly losing our feet during all finals played . Also no one has mentioned that C.Jones has no right foot and has a terrible left foot.and was playing on the wrong wing in some games for a lefty....at least Dal can get on his left and deliver beautiful kicks.

If you got kids teach them how to use both feet .

[rexy]

IMO Hawthorn have done nothing yet. Just like us in 04 05 they are the up and coming media buzz team who have the best young list yad yada yada. If they dont win the flag this year or next they will look at why, in that time they will have someone who wants to go back to their original state, one or two who will lose form or not come on like they appear to be currently, someone retire prematurely and also some salary cap preassure, they will possibly take a chance on a couple of recycled players to fill a hole Ie key defender as they continue on their quest for a flag.

If they do win a flag in the next 2 years they will look like heroes.

All comes down to If. IMO

[Otiman]

IMO Hawthorn have done nothing yet. Just like us in 04 05

They have made a grand final.

[Spinner]

Notice how nearly every single Hawthorn player can kick a footy.

Coupled with targeting certain 'used' players such as Guerra and Dew....


Pelchan is a legend!

[Con Gorozidis]

Talent Sainter Dad... that's what it comes down to.

Geelong & Hawthorn have heaps of it & we don't.

Put it this way, say we manage to get pick 5 from ESS for Dal. And say we do get pick 4 from Port for Kosi & Joey. In addition to our pick 13 we now have 3 top 20 picks & end up with three of the best 18 year olds in the country.

Dal, Kosi & Joey have great years in 2009 with their new clubs. We drop out of the eight as we get games into McEvoy, Armitage, Steven, Allen & the 2008 draft crop.

2009 draft is the last uncompromised draft before GC17 (with the exception of the raising of the draft age to 18). We have another crack at adding 4-5 quality kids.

2010 GC17 come in. We now have a hugely different list with Roo, BJ, Bally, Goose (fingers crossed), Gilbo, Raph, etc aged from 25-28. Lenny is the veteran at 30. We also have a crop of exceptionally talented 19-21 year olds to not support but be the equals of our current guns. GC17 are throwing early picks around to attract some experienced players. STK have the luxury of looking at our experienced group & making decisions on whether some blokes are expendable (Will Armo be a top liner by then?, etc).

That draft will be an absolute belter due to the 17 year olds that were not eligible for the 2009 draft being up for grabs in addition to the 2010 group.

We continue to build for the future years & seriously stockpile some talent.

Will we miss Dal, Kosi & Joey then? Maybe...probably.. (I still miss Plugger!) but we may also have some serious depth due to getting as many top 20 picks as possible over the next two seasons.

The more I think about it the more I'm sold on the idea.

agree. and dal is too slow. and kosi is a nothing player. not agile to be a KPP and too short to be a ruckmen. say goodbye.

[Con Gorozidis]

IMO Hawthorn have done nothing yet. Just like us in 04 05 they are the up and coming media buzz team who have the best young list yad yada yada. If they dont win the flag this year or next they will look at why, in that time they will have someone who wants to go back to their original state, one or two who will lose form or not come on like they appear to be currently, someone retire prematurely and also some salary cap preassure, they will possibly take a chance on a couple of recycled players to fill a hole Ie key defender as they continue on their quest for a flag.

If they do win a flag in the next 2 years they will look like heroes.

All comes down to If. IMO

u are an idot rexy. did the media get them to the gf?? they are the real deal. make no mistake.
they are also hawthorn. and they know how to win flags. not sure what u basing your cynicism on.