An interesting year ahead

[Vazelos]

With the last 3 years seeing our great team decline & reshape after the 2 Grand Finals I see 2014 as the year we stop declining & start the slow & steady rise with a new list & generation of footballers.

2014 for me will be a year when we learn how to become an extremely tough & competitive football team again.

Personnel & depth in defence may become the strength & cornerstone of our side as our mid field starts building towards matching the elite mid fields in the league.

Pressing & tactical discipline will ensure few heavy defeats in 2014 where I believe we will be in most contests & our improvement may not show in wins & losses.

I am looking forward to seeing the new St Kilda under our new coach.

New players, new coaching staff, 2nd & 3rd year players taking the next step.

Its exciting.

[BackFromUSA]

Brilliant post. Great contribution. The basis of some meaningful footy discussion. This is what the FAN FORUM is all about. Feel free to agree or disagree with Vazelos ... that is your right.

[PADDLEPOP1001]

+1

[Dave McNamara]

Brilliant post. Great contribution. The basis of some meaningful footy discussion. This is what the FAN FORUM is all about. Feel free to agree or disagree with Vazelos ... that is your right.

I wish to exercise my right to agree:

Plus 2!

Two great posts that hit the nail(s) on the head!

[citywest]

I still think that 2014 will see us bottom out even further. IMHO, we may only win 2 games in a repeat of 2000. Our steady rise will commence in 2015 with 2018 the earliest we get back into the finals. It will be 2020 at the very earliest before we play a Grand Final again. My worry is that will be smack bang when the 2 Super Teams, Gold Coast and Western Sydney will be hitting their peak.

[saintspremiers]

I can't see us being really competitive this year. I'm sure we'll try our guts out but do we have the cattle to match many sides for lomg enough in games to win many?

I'm not fussed if we only win 5 or so games this year.

I'm looking at 2015 to see the beginnings of the upset wins.

[Vazelos]

I don't believe any of us will be too fussed with the wins & losses ratio this year or the next as long as we see improvement & the list taking shape for future successes.
I am optimistic we will be in most games as we learn our new game plan, some experience is coming back this year as I stated before.

[spert]

Looking forward to a new era developing with Saints. No reason to do any worse than 2013- we should pick up a couple more wins if the senior players can get plenty of game time, and we get more consistency from Steven, Armo, Newnes, Curren and a few other younger players who have a season or two under their belts..that's the test for Richo.

[magnifisaint]

I cannot see any reason why the Saints can't win 8 games this season. I don't see any parallels to 2000/2001.

[joffaboy]

BigMart made an interesting observation in another thread.

Stated his thoughts were that we may improve this year but with the loss of some of our alltime greats (first bj now Dal to other clubs, Milney retirement)) and the retirement of Riewoldt, Lenny, Joey, Fisher, will probably dip again in 2015 and even 2016 before going up again in 2017.

This may be a pretty fair observation. Optimistically I hope he is not correct, however the holes those players leave will take a lot of filling.

On the flip side, I am looking forward to seeing Longer, Bruce, Savage and Billings from the new recruits, Newness, Ross, Saunders, Wright, Webster, Hickey, Lee kick on. Will watch with interest to see the likes of Wight develop, and hope the likes of Roberton, Armo, Jack, and Geary keep gettign better, still plenty of upside with those lads.

[Armoooo]

Don't think we've fully bottomed out yet, I think there's more pain to come before we start seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.

[bergholt]

Good post, though I respectfully disagree.

We have some good players most of whom are old. And we have some young players most of whom are not (yet) good.

If we're seriously competitive this year then that's a great sign, because it means some of our kids are showing something ahead of schedule. But that would be unexpected.

We just don't have a solid core. Here's how it looks at the moment:

Ray, Gwilt, Gilbert, Armitage, Geary, Steven, Savage, Roberton

Hoping to join them this season or likely be moved on: Maister, Milera, Dennis-Lane, Delaney, Stanley, Simpkin, Weller.

Not a huge amount of quality there - Steven probably the only one likely to get a game at every other side in the comp - which is why we rely on the old guys and the kids to make us competitive. And we have quality old guys, but they're a year older again:

Hayes, Fisher, Riewoldt, Montagna, Dempster, Jones, Schneider

At some point that gift stops giving and they have to pass the baton to some of this huge bunch of kids - 22 of them:

Newnes, Siposs, Hickey, Bruce, Ross, Webster, Lee, Saunders, Dunell, Longer, Murdoch, Wright, Curren, Minchington, Shenton, Holmes, Markworth, White, Pierce, Billings, Templeton, Acres

But at the moment only three of them have played more than 20 games, none more than 25. Most have played 10 or fewer. Not many players - unless they're Joel Selwood - start playing well until they've got a few preseasons and 30-50 games under their belts. Our own Jack Steven started looking good at about 20 games (midway through his fourth season) and really hit his straps last year at 51 games. Most of those kids above have two full years until they're close to either of those marks.

So I reckon we'll be doing well to win more than a handful of games both this year and next. The real thing to watch for in the next couple of years is whether any of those 22 kids above are going to be A graders - because that's what will determine when we're a contender again.


Here's one last list:

Andrew McQualter, Justin Sweeney, Brad Howard, Jarryd Allen, Matty Ferguson, Robert Eddy, Ben McEvoy, Luke Miles, Tom Lynch, Nick Heyne, Ali Smith, Nick Winmar, Jamie Cripps, Tom Ledger

As BigMart points out frequently, we drafted poorly for the majority of the period from 2004 to 2010. The guys above were drafted during that period and played games but are no longer at the club. They should be making up our core, or the younger ones at least approaching that point. They're not. That's why we're down and will be for a while yet.

Let's hope the 2011 draft ends up OK - we've got 7 legitimate AFL possibilities there. If some of Ross, Markworth, Newnes, Webster, Dunell, Shenton and Minchington don't come through then we'll be down even longer.

[Dave McNamara]

BigMart made an interesting observation in another thread.

Stated his thoughts were that we may improve this year but with the loss of some of our alltime greats (first bj now Dal to other clubs, Milney retirement)) and the retirement of Riewoldt, Lenny, Joey, Fisher, will probably dip again in 2015 and even 2016 before going up again in 2017.

This may be a pretty fair observation. Optimistically I hope he is not correct, however the holes those players leave will take a lot of filling.

On the flip side, I am looking forward to seeing Longer, Bruce, Savage and Billings from the new recruits, Newness, Ross, Saunders, Wright, Webster, Hickey, Lee kick on. Will watch with interest to see the likes of Wight develop, and hope the likes of Roberton, Armo, Jack, and Geary keep gettign better, still plenty of upside with those lads.

BM and yourself make a good point JB.

But remember, we are comparing our 2013 side with future sides. In 2013 Sam F and Lennys' contributions were minimal due to injury, Dal's likewise due to... uhmmm... circa 2012 BJ cruise-control footy, and the little champ Milney was well down on his 2012 All-Aussie effort.

So c/f 2013, that mainly only leaves...
- Joey to replace, though maybe not for a couple of years. Looking at our young 'uns, I'm confident we will be able to do this.
- Roo will be the really hard act to replace. But again, when...? With his knee this could easily be his last season, or he could play up to five more... just don't know...?
However, when that time comes, I'm confident that, though one man probably can't replace Roo..., several combined can.
I have high hopes for (at the very least some of) Lee, Spenc-aarrhh, Rhys Lightning, Sippa, and Jono Patton, with more than able help from BBBBeau, Markworth, Longer and Bruce.

In summary, our rucks and mid field will improve, our forwardline will improve as Roo gets some more help... and our backline will be exponentially better than in 2013.

I'm with the optimists... (with the standard 'cruelled by injuies aside' caveat) I'm tipping a mid-table finish, not too far short of the eight.

[busso mick]

Good post, though I respectfully disagree.

We have some good players most of whom are old. And we have some young players most of whom are not (yet) good.

If we're seriously competitive this year then that's a great sign, because it means some of our kids are showing something ahead of schedule. But that would be unexpected.

We just don't have a solid core. Here's how it looks at the moment:

Ray, Gwilt, Gilbert, Armitage, Geary, Steven, Savage, Roberton

Hoping to join them this season or likely be moved on: Maister, Milera, Dennis-Lane, Delaney, Stanley, Simpkin, Weller.

Not a huge amount of quality there - Steven probably the only one likely to get a game at every other side in the comp - which is why we rely on the old guys and the kids to make us competitive. And we have quality old guys, but they're a year older again:

Hayes, Fisher, Riewoldt, Montagna, Dempster, Jones, Schneider

At some point that gift stops giving and they have to pass the baton to some of this huge bunch of kids - 22 of them:

Newnes, Siposs, Hickey, Bruce, Ross, Webster, Lee, Saunders, Dunell, Longer, Murdoch, Wright, Curren, Minchington, Shenton, Holmes, Markworth, White, Pierce, Billings, Templeton, Acres

But at the moment only three of them have played more than 20 games, none more than 25. Most have played 10 or fewer. Not many players - unless they're Joel Selwood - start playing well until they've got a few preseasons and 30-50 games under their belts. Our own Jack Steven started looking good at about 20 games (midway through his fourth season) and really hit his straps last year at 51 games. Most of those kids above have two full years until they're close to either of those marks.

So I reckon we'll be doing well to win more than a handful of games both this year and next. The real thing to watch for in the next couple of years is whether any of those 22 kids above are going to be A graders - because that's what will determine when we're a contender again.


Here's one last list:

Andrew McQualter, Justin Sweeney, Brad Howard, Jarryd Allen, Matty Ferguson, Robert Eddy, Ben McEvoy, Luke Miles, Tom Lynch, Nick Heyne, Ali Smith, Nick Winmar, Jamie Cripps, Tom Ledger

As BigMart points out frequently, we drafted poorly for the majority of the period from 2004 to 2010. The guys above were drafted during that period and played games but are no longer at the club. They should be making up our core, or the younger ones at least approaching that point. They're not. That's why we're down and will be for a while yet.

Let's hope the 2011 draft ends up OK - we've got 7 legitimate AFL possibilities there. If some of Ross, Markworth, Newnes, Webster, Dunell, Shenton and Minchington don't come through then we'll be down even longer.

That is a well thought out and constructed analysis of where we are at the moment as a footy club. What excites me is the potential development of our young blokes and a snapshot or glimpse of what awaits us in the next few seasons.

[gringo]

I agree, I don't think we will necessarily win many games but I think we should remain competitive in most matches. defence should be the cornerstone too. Fisher, Gwilt, Dempster, Gilbert, Simpkin, Roberton, Newnes and Wright were all injured last season. Gears is the only defender I can think of that was available all year.

Our forward line might be the most suspect area with out Milney and Kosi. We will need big seasons from Lee and Stanley and hope that Shnides and who ever else plays forward gets a good run.

[noob]

We might have depth and talent in the backline now but it won't help if we keep losing the clearances. Our midfield is weaker I believe than last year so there won't be that added support. If Steven were to get injured I feel we cop some big losses in my view.

[Teflon]

Agree with all Bergholt states

The BIG interest I have is what "A" grade talent do we have cause that's the key

I'm actually more confident we will over time reduce the gap from our A graders to rank and file (we don't need another St Kilda with a super top '6', awesome FF/CHF but shyte to support it)

I think Pelchen and co are really focussing on improving skill levels which I think will hold us in good stead in future in pressure games

Plus side ....... bottom out with less compromised drafts!!!

[WinnersOnly]

Great post Vazelos!

I think people are seriously under estimating the affect the ousting of Watters will have on the playing group. It was obvious the core of the team didnt respect Watters and were not playing any where near their full capacities.

Richardson appears to have the group fitter than past years and if he can hit the mark with his game plan and motivation, this team will be surprise plenty!

The only short term negative I see is our rucking stocks will take a season to get to the level McEvoy was at but have far greater potential to be match winners than McEvoy will get too!

[Buckets]

It's really hard to guess what is in store for the club this year.

On the pessimistic side you could say that the club is in for a worst year than last, younger list with new players fitting in to the team with some massive experience leaving. It could possibly be the worst year Win/Loss wise since 2001.

But with optimism you could say that there is room for improvement in a number of key positions which could have us winning some of those close games that we lost last year. Especially with a depleted defence.

My hope is not about Wins/Losses but effort and improvement from the kids. I want to see the likes of Steven, Curren, Hickey, Stanley, Roberton, Saunders, Wright, Newnes and Ross to improve. I want to see the likes of Savage, Bruce, Delaney and Longer to fit into the team and feel a part of it. I want to see Billings, Acre, Dunstan, Markworth and White grab the bull by the horns and prove that they belong in the 22. And whilst all this is happening we need Roo Lenny Joey Fisher Gwilt Schneider Gilbert and co to teach all of them what it means to wear the RWB with pride and to never give anything less than 110% on the field!

[gringo]

Great post Vazelos!

I think people are seriously under estimating the affect the ousting of Watters will have on the playing group. It was obvious the core of the team didnt respect Watters and were not playing any where near their full capacities.

Richardson appears to have the group fitter than past years and if he can hit the mark with his game plan and motivation, this team will be surprise plenty!

The only short term negative I see is our rucking stocks will take a season to get to the level McEvoy was at but have far greater potential to be match winners than McEvoy will get too!

I'm not too fussed by big mac, he had a pretty poor season. Hickey wasn't far off his output and we have Longer, Pierce and Holmes as back up. Stanley will play ruck forward for most games too.

[Con Gorozidis]

Im not super fussed on the w:l this year but I'm very fussed on how we go about it.

Totally interesting year as we just have so many new personnel (some look extremely promising).

Im excited regardless - and just looking fwd to seeing some guys progress!

Exciting times IMO.

[Johnny Favier]

Im not super fussed on the w:l this year but I'm very fussed on how we go about it.

Totally interesting year as we just have so many new personnel (some look extremely promising).

Im excited regardless - and just looking fwd to seeing some guys progress!

Exciting times IMO.

That's pretty much how I'm looking at this year too.

If we can win respect for not chucking in the towel and taking the game right up to much more fancied opponents while bringing the young blokes on, that'll be good enough for me - win or lose.

It's a bit bizarre, but I'm actually looking forward to the start of this season more than I have since probably 2010 - I think a lot of us were pretty jaded after the 2nd GF loss.

Fresh adventures await and I'm looking forward to it!

[spert]

Watched the replay on cable of the Saints v Carlton match from last season and although we played pretty well as a team, the forward line was the obvious weakness over every other aspect- apart from Roo firing, there wasn't a lot of system and the lack of defensive game from the forwards was very obvious. I hope Richo sorts that one out.

[Vazelos]

Some strong arguments either way, whether you are optimistic or pessimistic about our short term possibilities we are all in agreement the fact there are so many questions to be answered by young &/or new players & the new era under a new coach the unknown makes it extremely interesting in my view.

I cannot think of a time where I looked at our football club & had so many new players to assess & so many questions.
Is he an A grader or close ?
Will he step up?
Can he become an AFL regular?
Is this new guy going to challenge the old guy? etc etc

What is our game plan?
How will the players respond to Richardson after Watters?

We really are walking into the unknown as members this year & I see it as Stage 1 of the start of our rise again.
Next years draft will be crucial to target Key Forwards & further strengthen our mid field.

First 2 games are winnable, we could be 2 and 0 after 2 rounds, I cant wait for Round 1 to be honest.

[WellardSaint]

I know my memory's cactus; but I recall the Roos & Tigers midfields giving us a bath last year.
Another year on, and their mids will have improved again, making an even bigger gap to make up.
Do we have the talent, fitness and strategy to minimise the bleeding at the clearances?
If the boys get towelled up again by those 2 sides, its a template for other teams to copy.
Imagine the Suns with GAblett & friends, with another preseason up their sleeves, will they feast on our midfield weakness?
Richo will not be the saviour;
remember, at the Power, they had a well developed mid group that was built, not born overnight.

I know they were young, but they were WAY ahead of us as we are now.
It took them time, so we can't expect an instant fix just cos we have him.
Imagine if Bernard Tomic grabbed Nadal's coach. Will that magically elevate him into the top 10?