Billy Longer

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Richter
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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407027Post Richter »

mad saint guy wrote:
Eastern wrote:I'd suggest that WE hold the whip hand here. Longer is out of contract which means they take what we give them or he walks. Having said that, I think Pelchen & Bains will do what is fair and reasonable so as to NOT burn our bridges for the future !!
Longer's actual value is probably something like pick 10-14. Pick 25 would be a steal, but at the same time I don't want us using a top 20 pick on him because we simply need midfielders more than we need another young ruckman when we already have Hickey, Stanley, Pierce and Holmes. I'd be happy to give up pick 25, but this isn't a trade that we NEED to happen and we should only get a deal done if it favours us.
Yep. It will come down to a few factors...

1. Will we capitulate to Brisbane's demands for a higher pick than #25?
2. If we don't will Brisbane make an example of Longer and force him in to the PSD?
3. What will be the situation with Josh Bruce..? we can't force both Bruce AND Longer in to the PSD as we'd only be in prime position to get one of them with our #3.


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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407043Post gringo »

mad saint guy wrote:
Eastern wrote:I'd suggest that WE hold the whip hand here. Longer is out of contract which means they take what we give them or he walks. Having said that, I think Pelchen & Bains will do what is fair and reasonable so as to NOT burn our bridges for the future !!
Longer's actual value is probably something like pick 10-14. Pick 25 would be a steal, but at the same time I don't want us using a top 20 pick on him because we simply need midfielders more than we need another young ruckman when we already have Hickey, Stanley, Pierce and Holmes. I'd be happy to give up pick 25, but this isn't a trade that we NEED to happen and we should only get a deal done if it favours us.

I am a little sceptical about the need for mids. We need some midfield class but we actually aren't as badly off for mids as suggested.
Steven will play for another 8 years or so
Armo another 6
Ross looks close
Gears could go in there
Newnes is touted as a future mid
Wright could
Saunders will
Murdoch could
Milera could transition in there
Curren looks ready made
We could see Minchington and Markworth as rotations from a forward role.

I'm not sure we are desperate like some suggest. Getting 2 more elite ball carriers will be necessary over the next couple of years as Joey, CJ and lenny are in the twilight of their careers and will need replacing but to pass up Scharenberg who is Goddard like because we need mids is silly. longer looks a really good prospect from what I've seen so far. I didn't think a ruck was a great idea at first either but I'm coming around.

We probably ironically need some backline runners coming through more after having too many for years. Roberton, Wright and murdoch look good options but a Heath Shaw style runner to link with Wrighty would be handy. Also I'm so into the Scharenberg as the Goddard or Harry O type quarterback now.


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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407052Post The Redeemer »

gringo wrote:
mad saint guy wrote:
Eastern wrote:I'd suggest that WE hold the whip hand here. Longer is out of contract which means they take what we give them or he walks. Having said that, I think Pelchen & Bains will do what is fair and reasonable so as to NOT burn our bridges for the future !!
Longer's actual value is probably something like pick 10-14. Pick 25 would be a steal, but at the same time I don't want us using a top 20 pick on him because we simply need midfielders more than we need another young ruckman when we already have Hickey, Stanley, Pierce and Holmes. I'd be happy to give up pick 25, but this isn't a trade that we NEED to happen and we should only get a deal done if it favours us.

I am a little sceptical about the need for mids. We need some midfield class but we actually aren't as badly off for mids as suggested.
Steven will play for another 8 years or so
Armo another 6
Ross looks close
Gears could go in there
Newnes is touted as a future mid
Wright could
Saunders will
Murdoch could
Milera could transition in there
Curren looks ready made
We could see Minchington and Markworth as rotations from a forward role.

I'm not sure we are desperate like some suggest. Getting 2 more elite ball carriers will be necessary over the next couple of years as Joey, CJ and lenny are in the twilight of their careers and will need replacing but to pass up Scharenberg who is Goddard like because we need mids is silly. longer looks a really good prospect from what I've seen so far. I didn't think a ruck was a great idea at first either but I'm coming around.

We probably ironically need some backline runners coming through more after having too many for years. Roberton, Wright and murdoch look good options but a Heath Shaw style runner to link with Wrighty would be handy. Also I'm so into the Scharenberg as the Goddard or Harry O type quarterback now.
That is less than a dozen players taken with low picks in drafts and nothing but potential with the majority.

Therefore to assist in our favour, we need high picks and draft more midfielders. By process of elimination we will keep the gooduns and the rest can play other positions and the failures are chopped.


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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407053Post Richter »

The Redeemer wrote:
gringo wrote: I am a little sceptical about the need for mids. We need some midfield class but we actually aren't as badly off for mids as suggested.
Steven will play for another 8 years or so
Armo another 6
Ross looks close
Gears could go in there
Newnes is touted as a future mid
Wright could
Saunders will
Murdoch could
Milera could transition in there
Curren looks ready made
We could see Minchington and Markworth as rotations from a forward role.

I'm not sure we are desperate like some suggest. Getting 2 more elite ball carriers will be necessary over the next couple of years as Joey, CJ and lenny are in the twilight of their careers and will need replacing but to pass up Scharenberg who is Goddard like because we need mids is silly. longer looks a really good prospect from what I've seen so far. I didn't think a ruck was a great idea at first either but I'm coming around.

We probably ironically need some backline runners coming through more after having too many for years. Roberton, Wright and murdoch look good options but a Heath Shaw style runner to link with Wrighty would be handy. Also I'm so into the Scharenberg as the Goddard or Harry O type quarterback now.
That is less than a dozen players taken with low picks in drafts and nothing but potential with the majority.

Therefore to assist in our favour, we need high picks and draft more midfielders. By process of elimination we will keep the gooduns and the rest can play other positions and the failures are chopped.
Agreed TR.

Steven is a potential A grader, Armo a solid B grader. The rest range from Ross, Geary, Newnes, Wright, Curren (probably will make it at AFL level in the midfield but ?standard) to Saunders, Murdoch (50/50) to Milera (not AFL standard).

Now look at, for example, Collingwood. They finished 8th this year and they have a midfield of Swan, Pendlebury, Ball, Beams, Sidebottom... ours doesn't stack up does it?


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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407057Post dragit »

gringo wrote: I am a little sceptical about the need for mids. We need some midfield class but we actually aren't as badly off for mids as suggested.
Steven will play for another 8 years or so
Armo another 6
Ross looks close
Gears could go in there
Newnes is touted as a future mid
Wright could
Saunders will
Murdoch could
Milera could transition in there
Curren looks ready made
We could see Minchington and Markworth as rotations from a forward role.

I'm not sure we are desperate like some suggest.
I reckon that midfield would be slaughtered by 17 other midfields going forward.

We need elite mids, not average ones… Saunders & Murdoch are speculative at best, Milera is just too light and Gears has pretty average disposal.

Curren solid - support, Wright & Newnes look likely…

I think we should be aiming for 3-4 A grade elite mids… we only have one - Jack.


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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407059Post joffaboy »

dragit wrote:
gringo wrote: I am a little sceptical about the need for mids. We need some midfield class but we actually aren't as badly off for mids as suggested.
Steven will play for another 8 years or so
Armo another 6
Ross looks close
Gears could go in there
Newnes is touted as a future mid
Wright could
Saunders will
Murdoch could
Milera could transition in there
Curren looks ready made
We could see Minchington and Markworth as rotations from a forward role.

I'm not sure we are desperate like some suggest.
I reckon that midfield would be slaughtered by 17 other midfields going forward.

We need elite mids, not average ones… Saunders & Murdoch are speculative at best, Milera is just too light and Gears has pretty average disposal.

Curren solid - support, Wright & Newnes look likely…

I think we should be aiming for 3-4 A grade elite mids… we only have one - Jack.
At the moment yes, but development takes quite a while.

Thought Swan ad Pendlebury were just GOP's in 08, and 09. But by 10 they were exceptional.

Going back thought Paul kelly was ordinary. Ended up a tough and exceptional midfielder.

Going back even further, I heard Leny Hayse would only ever be a GOP and Goddard was the worst No.1 ever taken in the draft. Both developed into exceptional mids.

We have blokes chock full of potential - Newnes, Wright, Murdoch, Ross, Curran.

We have blokes still to reach their potential - Jack Steven, Jarryn Geary

And we will get three top 20 mids, with No.3 probably elite.

So ATM we would get flogged, but we have a huge amount of young players who can only improve. How many can improve like a Swan, or Hayes is anyones guess ATM.


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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407065Post mad saint guy »

gringo wrote:I am a little sceptical about the need for mids. We need some midfield class but we actually aren't as badly off for mids as suggested.
Steven will play for another 8 years or so
Armo another 6
Ross looks close
Gears could go in there
Newnes is touted as a future mid
Wright could
Saunders will
Murdoch could
Milera could transition in there
Curren looks ready made
We could see Minchington and Markworth as rotations from a forward role.
Steven is the only young player currently at St Kilda who is anywhere near the level of a starting midfielder in a top four team. Armo is a solid 4th-5th in line rotation and Geary can play a role when required but he's not going to win us games. Newnes strikes me as a competent player who will be about as good as Farren Ray. Wright is one that I have high hopes for - I believe there's a good chance he'll become a gun wingman. Saunders is a long shot and I don't see Murdoch ever being a 20+ disposal player. Milera isn't AFL standard, though I do think Curren could become a very handy run-with player. Ross is a tricky one, it is too early to make a call although I see him eventually becoming about as good as Armo. He badly lacks pace but with more experience, fitness and aggression he could be useful.

So with an eye on the future I think we currently have one elite mid (Steven), one established support mid (Armo), a few who should be handy (Curren, Ross, Newnes) and one who could become elite (Wright). We need at least two-three more elite prospects. Significant progression from Saunders/Murdoch/Minchington should be considered a bonus, not something we're counting on. Just because they were given games this year doesn't mean that they're any better than those before them who didn't get picked in stronger teams.


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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407068Post dragit »

joffaboy wrote:At the moment yes, but development takes quite a while.

Thought Swan ad Pendlebury were just GOP's in 08, and 09. But by 10 they were exceptional.

Going back thought Paul kelly was ordinary. Ended up a tough and exceptional midfielder.

Going back even further, I heard Leny Hayse would only ever be a GOP and Goddard was the worst No.1 ever taken in the draft. Both developed into exceptional mids.

We have blokes chock full of potential - Newnes, Wright, Murdoch, Ross, Curran.

We have blokes still to reach their potential - Jack Steven, Jarryn Geary

And we will get three top 20 mids, with No.3 probably elite.

So ATM we would get flogged, but we have a huge amount of young players who can only improve. How many can improve like a Swan, or Hayes is anyones guess ATM.
Agree but… we can't rely on Curren, Murdoch, Saunders, Wright, Newnes, Ross etc all becoming very good players…

History suggests that we'll be lucky if half become more than GOP's, so we have to keep stockpiling with the hope that we end up with 8 - 10 quality mids.

I'm sure Collingwood took plenty of blokes along the way that never lived up their potential… Beames, Pendlebury, Thomas, Sidebottom all taken early in the draft - Swan is one of those freaks that popped out from no-where.

Gringo is suggesting that we don't necessarily need to take mids with our early picks… I think we definitely do.


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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407074Post saintsRrising »

dragit wrote:

Gringo is suggesting that we don't necessarily need to take mids with our early picks… I think we definitely do.
I a with you.

If you do not have an elite midfield these days, then you cannot become an elite team. The midfield now more than ever decides who wins (there are exceptions of course in individual games).

At present with our next midfield, Jack is the only gun. And one gun, does not an elite midfield make.

Now maybe, just maybe one or two of the others may radically improve. But that is a big maybe.

We desperately need more players that can become elite mids. Desperately.

I think we have the makings already for some good depth mids, but we need some more real cream.


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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407077Post Saint 58 »

I wish this Longer deal would just get done !! as well as the others

Saw a post on Bigfoot last week:
"... now I understand Heroin addiction ... can't stay away from footy forums ... need to see updates ..." :shock:

I hope we go Scharenberg assuming that GWS go Boyd & Kelly, unless they bypass Boyd - unlikely but stranger
things have happened.
Maybe we should offer Fisher for pick 90+ with a guarantee from GWS that they will bypass Boyd :wink: ??


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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407078Post plugger66 »

gringo wrote:
mad saint guy wrote:
Eastern wrote:I'd suggest that WE hold the whip hand here. Longer is out of contract which means they take what we give them or he walks. Having said that, I think Pelchen & Bains will do what is fair and reasonable so as to NOT burn our bridges for the future !!
Longer's actual value is probably something like pick 10-14. Pick 25 would be a steal, but at the same time I don't want us using a top 20 pick on him because we simply need midfielders more than we need another young ruckman when we already have Hickey, Stanley, Pierce and Holmes. I'd be happy to give up pick 25, but this isn't a trade that we NEED to happen and we should only get a deal done if it favours us.

I am a little sceptical about the need for mids. We need some midfield class but we actually aren't as badly off for mids as suggested.
Steven will play for another 8 years or so
Armo another 6
Ross looks close
Gears could go in there
Newnes is touted as a future mid
Wright could
Saunders will
Murdoch could
Milera could transition in there
Curren looks ready made
We could see Minchington and Markworth as rotations from a forward role.

I'm not sure we are desperate like some suggest. Getting 2 more elite ball carriers will be necessary over the next couple of years as Joey, CJ and lenny are in the twilight of their careers and will need replacing but to pass up Scharenberg who is Goddard like because we need mids is silly. longer looks a really good prospect from what I've seen so far. I didn't think a ruck was a great idea at first either but I'm coming around.

We probably ironically need some backline runners coming through more after having too many for years. Roberton, Wright and murdoch look good options but a Heath Shaw style runner to link with Wrighty would be handy. Also I'm so into the Scharenberg as the Goddard or Harry O type quarterback now.

The problem you have Gringo is looking through rose coloured glasses. its a good problem but makes it hard to really look at players ability. At the moment baring the old mids it is likely that Jack will be elite. There will be the Armo types in ability but there will also be the LJ conners types in ability. Maybe not as weak as he was but 3 or 4 on that list will never be mids of any note at all. names I will give you are Milera, Murdoch and saunders. They may make it elsewhere and I have pretty high hopes for saunders but not as mids. Even Wright and newnes may not end up as real mids. The only real mids on that list are Curren, Ross, Armo and Steven with Geary doing a tagging role if needed but again he is better elsewhere. We are 5 class mids short and that is why the 2 years is going to be very painful.


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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407091Post duckduckduckgoose »

No such thing as too much midfield depth.


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'A' Grade MID playmakers thanx!

Post: # 1407099Post Megamaguire »

I think of Harvey and Hayes as my guide on this one. Yes I appreciate we have Jack Steve. but having him alongside a young Roberto Harvey is what this club needs. I believe depth in midfield is more than simply numbers of mids. Harvey had a fair range of abilities - putting the sherrin down plugger's throat; a sidestep and baulk that gained hiim space on countless occasions for years; elite endurance; great reading of the play & apparent extra time to decision make. Lenny kept developing his own rugged inside game over the years and produced heroics regularly.
If top-shelf mid options are there St.Kilda must scoop them up!
Some of the young guys no doubt look promising but we should be drafting to increase our probability of success.
If the young guys listed above are going to be that good they will stay in the picture. If some don't become better than average then our added depth in recruiting gives the club a 2nd. bite @ the cherry.

I believe that contemplating a regular top 4 finish annd beyond means having a few exceptional mids.

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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407106Post cwrcyn »

We have suffered in the past of having 16 really good players and then between players 17 and 22 not having sufficient talent (Eddy, McQualter,etc). Many of the young players we currently have on our list will fill the bottom 6 places in the senior team over the next few years, but will be far better quality than what we've been used to in that bracket. With the next two or three drafts we have to bring in the cream, essentially topping up with star quality rather than has beens. This time we are doing it in reverse, so that when the new group of 2013/14/15 draftees hit their straps, they'll have a core of experienced and solid players in their mid 20s, rather than a bunch of players n the 29 to 32 age bracket. Once this pattern is set, it can be repeated, using the same method, meaning that we won't have the demographic black hole in that 24 to 27 age group that has been a problem in recent times.


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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407113Post gringo »

plugger66 wrote:
The problem you have Gringo is looking through rose coloured glasses. its a good problem but makes it hard to really look at players ability. At the moment baring the old mids it is likely that Jack will be elite. There will be the Armo types in ability but there will also be the LJ conners types in ability. Maybe not as weak as he was but 3 or 4 on that list will never be mids of any note at all. names I will give you are Milera, Murdoch and saunders. They may make it elsewhere and I have pretty high hopes for saunders but not as mids. Even Wright and newnes may not end up as real mids. The only real mids on that list are Curren, Ross, Armo and Steven with Geary doing a tagging role if needed but again he is better elsewhere. We are 5 class mids short and that is why the 2 years is going to be very painful.

I think we need mids of quality but if you look back over the drafts a lot of the elite mids are taken between 8 and 25 in the draft. Ball and Judd were an exceptional pair of highly rated mids but using your number one to five pick on a mid can often bring a Bryce Gibbs, Scully, Trengove etc.

Fyfe was pick 20 something from memory in 2009. I think the only other close to elite mid from that year was Dusty and he went at 3 but still is a fair way from elite. I don't over rate all our players and I said we need some but you can keep getting them in and sending them out but you need to play the ones you rate.

To get 5 very high quality mids you need to get them in and develop them. They obviously think those above are worth trying to develop because they are being given every chance. I didn't say we don't need them I just said it's over stated. If Longer was taken he is not a bad recruiting decision because he isn't a mid fielder.

There are some very good mids that should slide to the late teen early twenties. Dumont, Dunstan, Hartung, Tsitas, Kennedy Harris etc.

You have no idea who will become elite out of the guys currently on our list. I think Armo will improve again and was starting to show some real dominance, Jack obviously made the biggest leap forward, Newnes has been earmarked to be fast tracked, Saunders has some special traits as does Wright who could easily transition into a fast outside mid, Curren looks like he's player for 4 years already and should get better as he adapts to the pace of AFL, Ross was starting to show plenty to suggest he could make it remembering it usually takes about 4 to 5 years to step up to an elite level for most mids.

i just hope we get the best player available not some one who is picked just because he dominates as an outside mid in the TAC cup.


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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407122Post plugger66 »

gringo wrote:
plugger66 wrote:
The problem you have Gringo is looking through rose coloured glasses. its a good problem but makes it hard to really look at players ability. At the moment baring the old mids it is likely that Jack will be elite. There will be the Armo types in ability but there will also be the LJ conners types in ability. Maybe not as weak as he was but 3 or 4 on that list will never be mids of any note at all. names I will give you are Milera, Murdoch and saunders. They may make it elsewhere and I have pretty high hopes for saunders but not as mids. Even Wright and newnes may not end up as real mids. The only real mids on that list are Curren, Ross, Armo and Steven with Geary doing a tagging role if needed but again he is better elsewhere. We are 5 class mids short and that is why the 2 years is going to be very painful.

I think we need mids of quality but if you look back over the drafts a lot of the elite mids are taken between 8 and 25 in the draft. Ball and Judd were an exceptional pair of highly rated mids but using your number one to five pick on a mid can often bring a Bryce Gibbs, Scully, Trengove etc.

Fyfe was pick 20 something from memory in 2009. I think the only other close to elite mid from that year was Dusty and he went at 3 but still is a fair way from elite. I don't over rate all our players and I said we need some but you can keep getting them in and sending them out but you need to play the ones you rate.

To get 5 very high quality mids you need to get them in and develop them. They obviously think those above are worth trying to develop because they are being given every chance. I didn't say we don't need them I just said it's over stated. If Longer was taken he is not a bad recruiting decision because he isn't a mid fielder.

There are some very good mids that should slide to the late teen early twenties. Dumont, Dunstan, Hartung, Tsitas, Kennedy Harris etc.

You have no idea who will become elite out of the guys currently on our list. I think Armo will improve again and was starting to show some real dominance, Jack obviously made the biggest leap forward, Newnes has been earmarked to be fast tracked, Saunders has some special traits as does Wright who could easily transition into a fast outside mid, Curren looks like he's player for 4 years already and should get better as he adapts to the pace of AFL, Ross was starting to show plenty to suggest he could make it remembering it usually takes about 4 to 5 years to step up to an elite level for most mids.

i just hope we get the best player available not some one who is picked just because he dominates as an outside mid in the TAC cup.

Of course i have no idea who will become elite and neither do you so we are guessing but i do know that they all wont make it and most wont be elite. We can already say Armo will never be elite. he will just be a hard working honest mid at best.


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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407126Post Rutts »

Longer for #25
Jolly comes as Free Agent for 1 year playing as assistance for young guys and second year as ruck coach/insurance


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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407141Post BigMart »

Jolly, Longer, Stanley, Hickey, Pierce, Holmes

6 on the list 200+

Team needs 1 Ruckman, 1 Ruck/Fwd
2 Back ups....


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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407144Post karnaby »

& 2 projects


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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407145Post satchmo »

According to MMM Jolly in limbo. No certainty to be picked up.


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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407149Post dragit »

BigMart wrote:Jolly, Longer, Stanley, Hickey, Pierce, Holmes

6 on the list 200+

Team needs 1 Ruckman, 1 Ruck/Fwd
2 Back ups....
You should give Geelong a bell… They have 4 ruckmen & 4 forwards who can ruck.

Their list must be all messed up.


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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407151Post BigMart »

Who are the 8.... Name them

McIntosh.... Ruck
Simpson..... Ruck
West.......... Ruck
Blicvas....... Ruck
Vardy......... Fwd Ruck

That's 5

They will like trade one out one IMO


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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407153Post dragit »

BigMart wrote:Who are the 8.... Name them

McIntosh.... Ruck
Simpson..... Ruck
West.......... Ruck
Blicvas....... Ruck
Vardy......... Fwd Ruck

That's 5

They will like trade one out one IMO
Pods, Hawkins, Brown, Walker - ruck fwds

That makes 9.


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dragit
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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407154Post dragit »

dragit wrote:
BigMart wrote:Who are the 8.... Name them

McIntosh.... Ruck
Simpson..... Ruck
West.......... Ruck
Blicvas....... Ruck
Vardy......... Fwd Ruck

That's 5

They will like trade one out one IMO
Pods, Hawkins, Brown, Walker - ruck fwds

That makes 9.
Also Ryan Bathie…

But Mitch Brown I'll take back - NINE.


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saintsRrising
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Re: Billy Longer

Post: # 1407155Post saintsRrising »

Holmes will be on the rookie list.

If we gain Longer, I would assume that we will not take Jolly.

The club will interview a lot of players, and only take a few.

Interviewing Jolly is just part of this. If Longer falls through they may or may not take him.


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