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[perfectionist]

All things being equal, the chances of winning 12 games straight are about one in 4,000. But as we know in sport, all things aren't equal, especially in games where there are lots of players and so many other variables. Aussie rules has more players on the ground at any one time that any other widely played sport. It has more umpires. The ground is bigger. And the game is played over a longer time period than other "contact" sports. These peculiarities, plus others, make predicting a win somewhat perilous.

In round 15, two "out of the eight" teams sort to reignite their seasons at Docklands - it was 9th vs 11th, one with 7 wins and the other with 6. The percentages were both less than 100. At half time, we had taken our chances and led. Trailing by a goal at the final break, we played all over them for the first ten minutes, but unlike in the first half, we did not take our chances. From then on, our opponents did - kicking 6 straight.

Of course, our opponent that day was Richmond, and their win against us was the first of their current streak of 11. Sydney Stack kicked 4 and Mabior Chol kicked 3. It appears that neither will be good enough to play on Saturday.

Both Richmond and GWS have significant injuries and a number of players "under a cloud". They both have marking forwards who can (usually) kick straight. Nine years ago, we had a marking forward who could also (usually) kick straight. Our opponents had a young, tall and fast full back who specialised in negating a marking forward. He played the game of his life - or should I say - two games of his life - especially the second. It is history now that Nathan Brown did his knee in the first 15 minutes of the very next competitive game he played, a pre-season game, and was never the same player again, having lost that bit of pace that made all the difference. What might have happened had this unfortunate accident occurred at the same moment in either of his two previous games, we can only imagine.

It's true to say that every win takes you closer to your next loss. The team that takes its chances and has the most players available to take the field at the last change will win this game. My KOD goes to Richmond.

[fugazi]

Tigers by 6 goals hopefully.

[saynta]

Tigers by 6 goals hopefully.

Why? Stuff 'em I say. I want GWS to win.

No one picked them to win against the filth either.

[kosifantutti]

The probability of winning 12 games in a row, given that you have already won 11 is about 1 in 2.

[asiu]

don’t care

had ‘my’ victory

that’ll keep me smiling all off season

[fugazi]

Tigers by 6 goals hopefully.

Why? Stuff 'em I say. I want GWS to win.

No one picked them to win against the filth either.

Can't stand GWS and quite like Richmond, and they have a Reiwoldt. That's good enough for me.

[Bernard Shakey]

Giants!
I cannot support any of our traditional rivals.

[magnifisaint]

The probability of winning 12 games in a row, given that you have already won 11 is about 1 in 2.

Not about is

[perfectionist]

The probability of winning 12 games in a row, given that you have already won 11 is about 1 in 2.

Actually, that's conditional probability and uses Bayes' Theorem:
Bayes Theorem tells you about the probability of an event A occurring given that you have witnessed an event B.

P(A|B)= ( P(A) X P(B|A) ) / ( P(B))
where:
- P(A|B) means the probability of event A occurring given that we have witnessed event B
- P(A) means the probability of event A occurring
- P(B|A) means the probability of event B occurring given that we have witnessed event A
- P(B) means the probability of event B occurring

This will be significantly greater than 0.5.

[Linton Lodger]

GWS will roll them.

Its Mumford's last game, wouldn't want to be Nankervis or Soldo.

I'm tipping that the Mummy body slams Dusty within the first ten minutes.

[saintspremiers]

I want Richmond to win so GWS aren’t equal on flags with us. Plus it’s nice to see other teams suffer like us - the Freo GF loss was my all time favourite Granny I’ve witnessed. I wasn’t around in clickity clicks.

Mind you, imagine the devo Tigers fans if they lose - after last year’s stuff up!

[SaintPav]

GWS will roll them.

Its Mumford's last game, wouldn't want to be Nankervis or Soldo.

I'm tipping that the Mummy body slams Dusty within the first ten minutes.

You think so?

They're capable but will they have enough petrol in the tank?

[kosifantutti]

The probability of winning 12 games in a row, given that you have already won 11 is about 1 in 2.

Actually, that's conditional probability and uses Bayes' Theorem:
Bayes Theorem tells you about the probability of an event A occurring given that you have witnessed an event B.

P(A|B)= ( P(A) X P(B|A) ) / ( P(B))
where:
- P(A|B) means the probability of event A occurring given that we have witnessed event B
- P(A) means the probability of event A occurring
- P(B|A) means the probability of event B occurring given that we have witnessed event A
- P(B) means the probability of event B occurring

This will be significantly greater than 0.5.

You need to show your working.

[fugazi]

The probability of winning 12 games in a row, given that you have already won 11 is about 1 in 2.

Actually, that's conditional probability and uses Bayes' Theorem:
Bayes Theorem tells you about the probability of an event A occurring given that you have witnessed an event B.

P(A|B)= ( P(A) X P(B|A) ) / ( P(B))
where:
- P(A|B) means the probability of event A occurring given that we have witnessed event B
- P(A) means the probability of event A occurring
- P(B|A) means the probability of event B occurring given that we have witnessed event A
- P(B) means the probability of event B occurring

This will be significantly greater than 0.5.

You have to love a mention of Bayes' Theorem on a footy forum.
Good work

[fugazi]

The probability of winning 12 games in a row, given that you have already won 11 is about 1 in 2.

Actually, that's conditional probability and uses Bayes' Theorem:
Bayes Theorem tells you about the probability of an event A occurring given that you have witnessed an event B.

P(A|B)= ( P(A) X P(B|A) ) / ( P(B))
where:
- P(A|B) means the probability of event A occurring given that we have witnessed event B
- P(A) means the probability of event A occurring
- P(B|A) means the probability of event B occurring given that we have witnessed event A
- P(B) means the probability of event B occurring

This will be significantly greater than 0.5.

You have to love a mention of Bayes' Theorem on a footy forum.
Good work

[st.byron]

Tigers for me. Plenty of mates who are lifelong Richmond fans. Don’t care if GWS are equal to us on flags. Hope it’s a good game.

[older saint]

Tigers by 32, GWS hang close for a while but Richmond push away and 4 games in a row 2 taxing (Brisbane heat the heavy track last start ) will take its toll.

Norm Smith : Basha - Should have won it in 2017 but everyone was Dusty blind.

Highlight ( Hope_ Tom Lynch Stands on Toby Greenes head taking a speckie and he is forced bleeding with stud marks to the cranium...hahaha

[Saintly66]

Richmond every day of the week

[mr six o'clock]

The tigers will win easy
At least 10 goals

[Spinner]

GWS have monstered the midfield the last 3 weeks against probably the best 3 midfields in the business.

Hopefully this is closer than what everyone expects.

[freely]

It's not conditional - that's why the probs are 1:2 just like a coin toss that already came up heads 12 times. That said, I'm pretty sure Bayes will win it!

[terry smith rules]

Tigers by 6 goals hopefully.

Why? Stuff 'em I say. I want GWS to win.

No one picked them to win against the filth either.

Can't stand GWS and quite like Richmond, and they have a Reiwoldt. That's good enough for me.

But GWS have a Hayes and a Schneider good enough for me

[saintspremiers]

GWS will roll them.

Its Mumford's last game, wouldn't want to be Nankervis or Soldo.

I'm tipping that the Mummy body slams Dusty within the first ten minutes.

You think so?

They're capable but will they have enough petrol in the tank?

Petrol in the tank eh??

They’ve got Lenny advising them. He knows what it takes mentally and has somehow instilled it into them this September.

Then there is the Toby factor. I’m sure he’ll watch Silence of the Lambs on Friday night and come out hungry.

I don’t think it will be enough to get GWS the flag, but I’m expecting a brutal, bloodied and bruising game.

[ace]

All things being equal, the chances of winning 12 games straight are about one in 4,000. But as we know in sport, all things aren't equal, especially in games where there are lots of players and so many other variables. Aussie rules has more players on the ground at any one time that any other widely played sport. It has more umpires. The ground is bigger. And the game is played over a longer time period than other "contact" sports. These peculiarities, plus others, make predicting a win somewhat perilous.

In round 15, two "out of the eight" teams sort to reignite their seasons at Docklands - it was 9th vs 11th, one with 7 wins and the other with 6. The percentages were both less than 100. At half time, we had taken our chances and led. Trailing by a goal at the final break, we played all over them for the first ten minutes, but unlike in the first half, we did not take our chances. From then on, our opponents did - kicking 6 straight.

Of course, our opponent that day was Richmond, and their win against us was the first of their current streak of 11. Sydney Stack kicked 4 and Mabior Chol kicked 3. It appears that neither will be good enough to play on Saturday.

Both Richmond and GWS have significant injuries and a number of players "under a cloud". They both have marking forwards who can (usually) kick straight. Nine years ago, we had a marking forward who could also (usually) kick straight. Our opponents had a young, tall and fast full back who specialised in negating a marking forward. He played the game of his life - or should I say - two games of his life - especially the second. It is history now that Nathan Brown did his knee in the first 15 minutes of the very next competitive game he played, a pre-season game, and was never the same player again, having lost that bit of pace that made all the difference. What might have happened had this unfortunate accident occurred at the same moment in either of his two previous games, we can only imagine.

It's true to say that every win takes you closer to your next loss. The team that takes its chances and has the most players available to take the field at the last change will win this game. My KOD goes to Richmond.

"Every win takes you closer to your next loss"
Any one half literate in mathematics will say cobblers based on each game being an independent event.
But games are not independent events
Players confidence and over confidence leading to laziness do have an effect.
Also winning past games can cause injuries and other physical handicaps impacting on future games.
But based on my knowledge of these two teams I say COBBLERS, Richmond will win

[magnifisaint]

1 in 4096

Anyone heard of Castilagno's theorem?