Round 1 Gold Coast Suns

[samuraisaint]

Unbelievably the Suns have been able to add Jack Lukosias, Izak Rankine and Ben King (the brother who didn't injure his knee last year) during the off-season. This is a real coup for them - 3 picks inside the top 7 in a super draft. If they manage this right this could be their history changing draft year.
Can you imagine the optimism if we'd managed to land these three guys in one draft?
I know they lost Lynch in the off-season to Richmond but they still have 2-metre Peter. I think we will win because it is played in Melbourne, but last year's narrow win against them when they were on their knees doesn't fill me with confidence, to be honest, particularly if Jake doesn't recover for round 1 (he sat out of the match simulation yesterday due to his back issue). If Jake is out we don't have anyone who I am confident of being able to hold him, particularly if he gets good supply which he might if our midfield is missing Hannebury due to his hamstring.

[Joffa Burns]

Unbelievably the Suns have been able to add Jack Lukosias, Izak Rankine and Ben King (the brother who didn't injure his knee last year) during the off-season. This is a real coup for them - 3 picks inside the top 7 in a super draft. If they manage this right this could be their history changing draft year.
Can you imagine the optimism if we'd managed to land these three guys in one draft?
I know they lost Lynch in the off-season to Richmond but they still have 2-metre Peter. I think we will win because it is played in Melbourne, but last year's narrow win against them when they were on their knees doesn't fill me with confidence, to be honest, particularly if Jake doesn't recover for round 1 (he sat out of the match simulation yesterday due to his back issue). If Jake is out we don't have anyone who I am confident of being able to hold him, particularly if he gets good supply which he might if our midfield is missing Hannebury due to his hamstring.

Lynch, May, Kolodjasnij, Lyons & Hall gone, their best two players and arguably the other 3 in their top ten.

They also traded Scrimshaw who one forumite wanted us to give our #4 to them in exchange.

Topped up with a stack of VFL quality mature players who have had little impact at AFL level over many seasons.

Yes the 3 kids drafted could be superstars but that will take 4 - 5 years if they can retain them.

GCS will be lucky to win 2-3 games IMO.

If we loose this one all hell will break loose at the Saints.
If we lose could Richo face the axe after 1 game?

Saints by 60 points, purely on how ordinary GCS will be.

[degruch]

Certainly not a game to go into with a poor attitude, but as pointed out, the Suns have been absolutely gutted and are pretty much rebuilding from scratch. 2M Peter hasn't set the world alight thus far given ample opportunity, I'd love to see Sexton completely blanketed though, he seems to perform quite well against us from memory.

[tedtheodorelogan2018]

Saints by 40-60 points.

[SaintPav]

Can’t see us losing this one with the crack team of Cho in the box and Danny Sexton coaching from the bench.

[samuraisaint]

I thought we'd account for both Brisbane and the Gold Coast comfortably before our respective matches last season, and both those sides led us deep into the final quarter. If not for some absolute Jack Steven magic against the Lions, and a freakish, miraculous goal by Gresham at the death against the Suns, both sides would've done us like a proverbial dinner.
I hope the coaching staff and players don't go into round 1 with the same (lack of) preparation and attitude like they did last year or we will be absolutely gawn. G.A.W.N. gawn.

[Joffa Burns]

I thought we'd account for both Brisbane and the Gold Coast comfortably before our respective matches last season, and both those sides led us deep into the final quarter. If not for some absolute Jack Steven magic against the Lions, and a freakish, miraculous goal by Gresham at the death against the Suns, both sides would've done us like a proverbial dinner.
I hope the coaching staff and players don't go into round 1 with the same (lack of) preparation and attitude like they did last year or we will be absolutely gawn. G.A.W.N. gawn.

Brisbane is a totally different kettle of fish to GCS.
Young talent to burn and developing nicely.

Might beat them at home but expect them to touch us up big time this year when we play them away.

[WellardSaint]

We'll lose because of 3 factors combining to make it tough for us.
1. We kick too many points.
2. Teams easily score a goal after they kick-in after our points (we're #18 for defending against kick-in)
3. New kick-in rule means oppo gonna get jump on us.

Verdict: Suns to be in front from the start, Suns win by 5 goals

[The_Dud]

Could be the first nail in the coffin...

[Cairnsman]

We'll lose because of 3 factors combining to make it tough for us.
1. We kick too many points.
2. Teams easily score a goal after they kick-in after our points (we're #18 for defending against kick-in)
3. New kick-in rule means oppo gonna get jump on us.

Verdict: Suns to be in front from the start, Suns win by 5 goals

This is crazy idea but what would happen if the team turns itself around, crazy notion I know and we certainly wouldn't be breaking new ground here but just saying.

[skeptic]

This is crazy idea but what would happen if the team turns itself around, crazy notion I know and we certainly wouldn't be breaking new ground here but just saying.

We all know my degree of faith in the current coaching regime but to be honest I’d be utterly stunned if we didn’t beat this mob by at least 5 goals if not 7-8.

If we lost... place will melt down

[DJ Higgins]

I am nervous about this game. Forget suns weaknesses for a second and focus on ours from last year
One quality outside mid. Hasn't changed so Jack Steven has to carry the team again in this area.
Terrible terrible rucking. Our best ruck (arguably) has gone and no replacement so now we play two below average ruckman or worse make Bruce or acres ruck
Poor conversion rate. Only change here is playing battle as a defender. My views on this are well known
Poor coach. Long bombs into F50 and no plan b. Has this changed?

Suns are not very good andt have 3 ready to play draftees coming in that are great on paper but big step up to AFL level. I think either team can lose this game

[Cairnsman]

This is crazy idea but what would happen if the team turns itself around, crazy notion I know and we certainly wouldn't be breaking new ground here but just saying.

We all know my degree of faith in the current coaching regime but to be honest I’d be utterly stunned if we didn’t beat this mob by at least 5 goals if not 7-8.

If we lost... place will melt down

If it happens I will personaly donate an industrial quantity of Valium for SS members to access free of charge.

[stevie]

We only play the Lions once this year and it’s at home

[WellardSaint]

We only play the Lions once this year and it’s at home

Irrelevant. Thread is GCS

[Joffa Burns]

We only play the Lions once this year and it’s at home

Irrelevant. Thread is GCS

I’d referenced the Lions as home and away fixtures so Stevie was probably correcting that

[stonecold]

We'll lose because of 3 factors combining to make it tough for us.
1. We kick too many points.
2. Teams easily score a goal after they kick-in after our points (we're #18 for defending against kick-in)
3. New kick-in rule means oppo gonna get jump on us.

Verdict: Suns to be in front from the start, Suns win by 5 goals

Next stop please!!!!!

[Devilhead]

We will be 1 and zip and top of the ladder at the end of Round 1 and we will not relinquish this position for the rest of the year

[WellardSaint]

We'll lose because of 3 factors combining to make it tough for us.
1. We kick too many points.
2. Teams easily score a goal after they kick-in after our points (we're #18 for defending against kick-in)
3. New kick-in rule means oppo gonna get jump on us.

Verdict: Suns to be in front from the start, Suns win by 5 goals

Next stop please!!!!!

Brought in Ben Dixon to help our goal kicking.
Result? Even worse than previous 3 years.
Even Skunk, the most accurate, was spraying them terribly.

Club said 'Skunk wasn't a Dixon pupil' cos they didn't want a mob to march down to training with pitchforks.

You think we'll get more accurate by magic, before Rd 1?
Is Harry Potter or Prof Snape taking skills sessions?

Explain how we'll be kicking 15 goals 9, rather than 9 goals 15.

[Linton Lodger]

Round 1 games are always tough, no matter who you play. Even if you play the team that's going to be the worst in the comp that season, they generally put their best foot forward Round 1.

I think Gold Coast rightfully start the season spoon favorites, however, I think they'll be better & more competitive than last year. They'll be better for a second preseason under Dew, they've added big bodies to their midfield and despite them not been stars, it means they won't be physically overpowered in the middle as they were last year.

As I said Round 1 is always tricky and I'll be happy if we just take the 4 points. A loss would be of concern, but not necessarily catastrophic.

[shanegrambeau]

Seven Sundays until the Suns hand the sun to the Saints.
This review is totally off the rails, but how else can you predict what will happen?

1) Gold Coast have started the season pretty well over the past five years, winning three of five and losing one by less than a kick. Last year, after Round Five they were only percentage outside the the four. What happened from there was flameout all engines free fall, but anyway... Saints start poorly straight out of the box year on year. What’s worse, is our response to the poor start, go into shells.
2) St Kilda is on a hiding to nothing. Win = nothing less than expected, Lose = good luck Richo and co. (But lest we forget Nathan Buckley and his trusty team on media death row)
3) Botn teams have an unsettled or yet to be determined set up in so far as personnel are concerned and none of us can predict who will be our key forwards? Can the Gold Coast’s brain trust? And even if they could, what are they, (what can they) do about it?
4) It could be a pressure cooker type of game where good fitness, poor skills and green game plans all clash turning it into a low scoring spit roast until...
5) and then, all of a sudden, the new roof opens in the third quarter and the sun lights up the stadium, only the black on the backs of St Kilda’s jumpers will be discernible in the confusion. Suns look up to worship their namesake who will start kicking high towards the sun instead of the goals, from whence Paddy McCartin will get a shoulder ride from Jake Carlisle and pull down the first screamer. A flood of goals ensures, Saints by ten goals.

[samuraisaint]

Looks like we are likely to be without Carlisle, Longer, Hannebury, and Brown for Round 1, with a very rusty Josh Bruce and Dylan Roberton to come in. If 2 Metre Peter gets on the end of a few we'll be chasing our tails all day.
Pressure will be well and truly on.

[Crossy66]

Over simplification maybe, but if the only improvement we make over last year is to kick straight, we will win 1/2 dozen games alone.
Kicking for goal will be the major barometer in round 1 for me.

[Yorkeys]

Sportsbet can add a few tidbits into its odds algorithm to balance the huge off field changes Saints have made in the months between seasons horribilis and new dawn. Suns finished below Saints in yr horribilis so are clearly starting from an inferior position, yes? but it was crucified by the disruptive impact of the C'wealth Games. Even so in a head to head match they outplayed the Saints only to choke late and suffer that rare sequence of events, Longer to advantage of Gresham, snap, goal!. Saints have significant injury related issues, current and players returning after long lay offs. Suns Coach is quite good, so are its ruck stocks. Apparently in a novel approach its off season recruits are actually going to play. Saints team that runs out will feel the pressure to perform, there will be enormous expectations of a runaway win. Coach will be under enormous pressure. CEO will be under enormous pressure. Director of Football will be under enormous pressure. If Saints lose round one it will mean wholesale changes have to be made for the club to be viable. Suns will have no such pressure. Saints have been known to fold under pressure, score board and other sorts. The Suns' odds might shorten with every injury update. Then again Suns don't travel well, do they.

[The_Dud]

Looks like we are likely to be without Carlisle, Longer, Hannebury, and Brown for Round 1, with a very rusty Josh Bruce and Dylan Roberton to come in. If 2 Metre Peter gets on the end of a few we'll be chasing our tails all day.
Pressure will be well and truly on.

I think the negative of being without Carlisle and Hannebery will be outweighed by the positive of being without Longer and Brown!