Have we been 'worked out'?

[Johnny Member]

I touched on this in another thread, but thought it was worthy of discussion on its own.


Coaches and in turn teams sometimes burst onto the scene with a style of play that catches everyone off guard. In some cases, so much so that they pinch the flag before other clubs work out firstly WTF they're actually doing, then secondly how to stop it.

I still maintain that under Lyon, this is what we did. We were nigh on unstoppable when his plan first hit the shelves. Unfortunately for us though, by about round 18 or so, teams knew what we were doing and had already found ways to counter it. By the finals, they'd well and truly worked it out.

By 2010, Collingwood had gone one better and taken what we did, plus added a bit of their own twist on it and suddenly it was them who couldn't be beaten. Within a year that style was done and dusted too.

Clarkson did the same thing in 2008 but actually pinched the flag before everyone worked out 'Clarkson's cluster'.

A few years earlier, Roos pinched one with a shitty game plan that only lasted in the AFL for 2 seasons before it became redundant. Fortunately for him and the Swans, he had a freak list that all managed to stay on the park for two straight years together.

We now see Port having to reinvent themselves under Hinkley after his ballistic style of play which nearly pinched them a flag has been found out. Can he actually do it though? Time will tell.

West Coast's 'web' was dismantled on GF day last year, which clearly other clubs took notice of, and instantly the West Coast are pretty much back with the pack.

Out of all the above, Clarkson is the only one who was able to adjust and reload with a new style. He identified that the 'cluster' was done, and altered the list and game style and successfully and made it back to the top.


Last week's game against North had me thinking about this whilst watching it.

I was concerned prior to the game about the media spotlight finally being shone on the Hickey and Stevens combination. For some reason, most likely because no one really cares about a bottom 6 team, the fact that nearly all of our clearances come from these two was never really being spoken about publicly.
When these two get the pill and combine, we have either won or been very competitive. Dunstan's entire game seems to revolve around setting up so that Stevens' gets the pill from Hickey in the clearances.

So naturally when the media jumped all over it after we beat the Dogs, we knew North would be acutely aware of it too. And clearly, they were. I was worried about how we were actually going to win the pill if they shut this combination down - and sure enough - they did, and we didn't!


The other one was the switch out of defence. North clearly were aware (as the entire Saints supporter base that watches us play each week is), that we really only score from three scenarios:

1) From a Hickey-Stevens centre clearance
2) From a turnover and 'slingshot' attack over the back
3) From switching from defence until we free someone up up the ground

North shut down the switch which combined with their shutdown of our clearances, rendered us useless unless we were able to force a turnover. To our credit, we did bring some pretty serious intensity and did force turnovers. But as we saw, that didn't generate enough opportunity given we wasted so many shots at goal.


So, the question is - given that Carlton will almost certainly attempt to do exactly what North did last week, do we have a 'Plan B'?

If they shutdown the switch, which they will, and if they put all their efforts into stopping Jack and Hickey combining, which they will, how will we then generate enough scoring opportunities to win?


I have no doubt that over the next pre-season as our list changes a bit, the game plan will evolve and will be closer to, if not right where Richardson wants it to be. But currently, and for the rest of the year, have we been found out??

[thejiggingsaint]

"found out"? With great respect for your right to an opinion, I'd ask; "what"? is there about us and our style in 2016 that other clubs would say they'd "found out" about us? As I see it in 2016, we are a team very much in transition, a 'work in progress" so to speak; inconsistent, prone to fatal turnovers at crucial stages of a game, slow starters, non-existent as a competitor interstate, on the other hand youthful energy and high intensity in spades, a good blend of youth and experience. The point about Port under Hinkley is well made, but WHO did Hinkley have in the coaches box with him? Richo, (IMHO) will continue to concentrate on building a winning style for us, at the moment its still being formulated.

[St Chris]

I'd suggest whenever a coach comes up with a game-plan, they'd be fully aware of how teams will attempt to shut it down. Because you need have to have practised and tested the plan.

The difference between winners and losers is usually the quality to still execute the game plan under duress.

You say we had been worked out by Round 18 in 2009, but in reality we were probably worked out by around Round 6. We just had the quality to maintain the game plan despite the opposition knowing exactly what they had to do against it. The change in the last month of that year was probably down to fatigue more than anything. Not sure if teams still do it know, but those were the days teams who were looking to go deep in September were ramping up training loads in July and August, to be primed when it counted. We just never got going again - we broke the spirit of a young 'Pies outfit in the qualifying final (on the back of possibly Roo's best game ever), then just scraped past the Dogs. We never really got our manic defensive game back to it's best. At 3qtr time at the big dance, i knew we were done, because we had probably 12 blokes getting rub downs, and Geelong had none. They'd smashed Collingwood in the prelim and were just fresher when it counted. But I digress.....

So to Carlton for this week, they probably know exactly what we are going to do, and we know what they will do. The difference on the day will be who executes better. It's one thing to find out a way to break down a game plan, but the best teams wont let you do it regardless.

[thejiggingsaint]

Nailed it St Chris!

[Stephen Theodore]

Nailed it St Chris!

+ 1

[Dis Believer]

I'd suggest whenever a coach comes up with a game-plan, they'd be fully aware of how teams will attempt to shut it down. Because you need have to have practised and tested the plan.

The difference between winners and losers is usually the quality to still execute the game plan under duress.

You say we had been worked out by Round 18 in 2009, but in reality we were probably worked out by around Round 6. We just had the quality to maintain the game plan despite the opposition knowing exactly what they had to do against it. The change in the last month of that year was probably down to fatigue more than anything. Not sure if teams still do it know, but those were the days teams who were looking to go deep in September were ramping up training loads in July and August, to be primed when it counted. We just never got going again - we broke the spirit of a young 'Pies outfit in the qualifying final (on the back of possibly Roo's best game ever), then just scraped past the Dogs. We never really got our manic defensive game back to it's best. At 3qtr time at the big dance, i knew we were done, because we had probably 12 blokes getting rub downs, and Geelong had none. They'd smashed Collingwood in the prelim and were just fresher when it counted. But I digress.....

So to Carlton for this week, they probably know exactly what we are going to do, and we know what they will do. The difference on the day will be who executes better. It's one thing to find out a way to break down a game plan, but the best teams wont let you do it regardless.

Very well put. Not only that, the ability to execute plans and counter measures is partially dependent upon pressure from the opposition. North were never under any real pressure from us because of our atrocious goal kicking, so they were relaxed and able to execute their counter measures to our game plan. Would they have been as effective in shutting us down if they had been three goals down at half time - I seriously doubt it........

[Johnny Member]

I'd suggest whenever a coach comes up with a game-plan, they'd be fully aware of how teams will attempt to shut it down. Because you need have to have practised and tested the plan.

The difference between winners and losers is usually the quality to still execute the game plan under duress.

You say we had been worked out by Round 18 in 2009, but in reality we were probably worked out by around Round 6. We just had the quality to maintain the game plan despite the opposition knowing exactly what they had to do against it. The change in the last month of that year was probably down to fatigue more than anything. Not sure if teams still do it know, but those were the days teams who were looking to go deep in September were ramping up training loads in July and August, to be primed when it counted. We just never got going again - we broke the spirit of a young 'Pies outfit in the qualifying final (on the back of possibly Roo's best game ever), then just scraped past the Dogs. We never really got our manic defensive game back to it's best. At 3qtr time at the big dance, i knew we were done, because we had probably 12 blokes getting rub downs, and Geelong had none. They'd smashed Collingwood in the prelim and were just fresher when it counted. But I digress.....

So to Carlton for this week, they probably know exactly what we are going to do, and we know what they will do. The difference on the day will be who executes better. It's one thing to find out a way to break down a game plan, but the best teams wont let you do it regardless.

I don't agree.

Good teams, really good teams, these days have more than one plan. In years gone by, the great teams had a plan and their rise up the ladder coincided with their ability to stick to their plan for longer and whenunder pressure. Those days are gone.

Teams need more than one string to their bow. As per the OP, the teams listed didn't have that. And as a result, are now back with the pack.


The OP makes it pretty clear that I was referring to this year and what remains of it. As per the OP I fully expect that Richardson won't have fully bedded down the style of play that he wants us to execute until probably 2018.

But for this year, it looks as though we really only have 3 avenues to goal, and two of them have shown to be reasonably easy to shutdown.

Often top teams will not focus too heavily on what the bottom teams want to do, and instead back themselves to play their own game. But when a team starts to show the ability to stitch teams up if left to play their way - the top teams will start to focus more on shutting them down.

Like Essendon and guys like the little Torres Strait Island guy. Early on, opposition clubs let them do as they please, and instead focussed on their own game. As the season wire on, they saw that Essendon actually did need some attention otherwise they might cause an upset - so they started putting some defensive focus into guys like him. And sure enough, his impact dropped off.


I highly doubt anyone would simply back themselves against us from now on without looking to shut us down.

[saintsRrising]

Found out?

No. But we only have one genuinely elite mid in Steven, and just like the Cats have struggled this year when Dangerworth is held, we struggle if Steven does not have a great game if we are against a good opponent. I have thought all year that we nee 2 more elite mids if we want to become a top 4 team.

As for the North game. Saints had opportunities BUT we kicked way too many points from relatively easy shots on goal. Even Membrey missed a sitter and at a time where he had of kicked he would have made he margin very narrow. I just think they let the pressure of the occasion (ie last chance to achieve a good chance of making finals) get to us and we wilted. It will have been a good learning experience.

Tall backs. The North big forwards went ok and so Carlisle and/or Fisher would have made some difference. Carlisles will a handy asset next year.

[spert]

I would say the opposition probably wonder "are The Saints going to be switched on from the first bounce- in that case we might struggle, or will their midfield do the slow start and hardly touch the ball- in that case we will probably win"

[supersaints]

Good post JM...
(Just don't tell BM what Dunstans main role is because he apparently does not get enough of his own possessions..and needs to be dropped every week. Sssshhhh !!!)

I do think however that we have a few more tricks up our sleeve, every side is analyzed to the nth degree, we do need more speed and options other than what we currently in the middle but , but I am vey confident in the brains trust going forward.
It's a bit of a compliment let's face it , in the past it was jump all over Roo and we got beat because of lack of other avenues. Our forward line looks far less predictable
We are quite a lot less predictable all over the ground than we have been in the past. Add all this to a possible strong spine and we a bunch of young hungry players and I think we look ok.

[BigMart]

Seriously.

Main role... Haha ...

Who are some of the other mids in the comp that have a 'main role' of getting someone else getting a kick...

Jacks been getting a kick for a few years now, and gets them through hard running and just being a good footballer.

[Johnny Member]

Seriously.

Main role... Haha ...

Who are some of the other mids in the comp that have a 'main role' of getting someone else getting a kick...

Jacks been getting a kick for a few years now, and gets them through hard running and just being a good footballer.

Fyfe said in his Brownlow speech that Suban and another guy had the job to get Fyfe space so he could get the ball. He said that that was their role.

[BigMart]

Suban generally plays off HB... He doesn't even play midfield now... In a decimated team

Pretty sure their centre square set up included Barlow, Mundy and Fyfe the majority of the time.

[Johnny Member]

Suban generally plays off HB... He doesn't even play midfield now... In a decimated team

Pretty sure their centre square set up included Barlow, Mundy and Fyfe the majority of the time.

You'll have to take that up with Lyon and Fyfe. Don't shoot the messenger!

[SaintPav]

So media wags the dog on opposition analysis?

Interesting..

[Johnny Member]

So media wags the dog on opposition analysis?

Interesting..

Of course not.

What a stupid thing to say.

[Johnny Member]

I would say the opposition probably wonder "are The Saints going to be switched on from the first bounce- in that case we might struggle, or will their midfield do the slow start and hardly touch the ball- in that case we will probably win"

I think that up until we beat Geelong and then the Bulldogs, opposition would approach is with a 'let's play the game on our terms' mentality and wouldn't have been too worried about anything we brought to the table.

But knocking off the Dogs and sitting 2 games off 8th and suddenly you get taken seriously and teams look for ways to dismantle your game. The same reason that the media stood up and took notice. Up until last week, anything we were doing wasn't worth worrying about as we hadn't beaten anyone except Geelong - and that was just put down to Geelong having a bad day and us bringing pressure.

[SaintPav]

So media wags the dog on opposition analysis?

Interesting..

Of course not.

What a stupid thing to say.

You implied it in your post.

[Johnny Member]

So media wags the dog on opposition analysis?

Interesting..

Of course not.

What a stupid thing to say.

You implied it in your post.

I did nothing of the sort.



Do you think Richmond have come out firing tonight just because the media started writing about them? Or do you think they realised they needed to show something tonight after a 100 point thrashing last week, and that the media saw the same game and came to the same conclusion??

[SaintPav]

So media wags the dog on opposition analysis?

Interesting..

Of course not.

What a stupid thing to say.

You implied it in your post.

I did nothing of the sort.



Do you think Richmond have come out firing tonight just because the media started writing about them? Or do you think they realised they needed to show something tonight after a 100 point thrashing last week, and that the media saw the same game and came to the same conclusion??

No idea.

You suggested that the opposition started to focus on us when we got some media attention after the North win.

My point is that the opposition would be on to it weeks before or at least should be and wouldn't be getting their intel from Robbo and the like..

[Johnny Member]

So media wags the dog on opposition analysis?

Interesting..

Of course not.

What a stupid thing to say.

You implied it in your post.

I did nothing of the sort.



Do you think Richmond have come out firing tonight just because the media started writing about them? Or do you think they realised they needed to show something tonight after a 100 point thrashing last week, and that the media saw the same game and came to the same conclusion??

No idea.

You suggested that the opposition started to focus on us when we got some media attention after the North win.

My point is that the opposition would be on to it weeks before or at least should be and wouldn't be getting their intel from Robbo and the like..

That wasn't my suggestion.

As per above.

[SaintPav]

Cool

[samuraisaint]

As soon as Carlisle was suspended for the year, I knew it would be a long season. I saw 7 wins as very likely given that we play Essendon with a VFL side twice at Etihad, Carlton, who was everybody's favourite for wooden spoon with the tag of the 'worst side ever', twice, Melbourne twice (at Etihad!), and Brisbane Lions at Etihad in the final round. We have already beaten that, and still have two very winnable games left, which, if we won them both, I would be over the moon.
When Goddard went down in his first game for us at senior level for the year, and then losing Fisher, Dempster, and even Webster, for a large chunk of the year, I would have thought a bottom five finish was in the tea leaves, but we have actually done very well, with what we've had at our disposal.
We are never going to beat side a with three tall forwards this year, with our backline as it is; I'm referring to teams such as Port, North or Richmond, but next year I think we will.
For what it's worth I thought we did a good job last week in what was always going to be a testimonial match for North's hero with all the trimmings, a large opposition turnout with the requisite dodgy umpiring decisions and even the gift goal at the finish.
It will be interesting to see how we go tomorrow with Fisher coming back in and playing a side with a short forward line and forwards with poor conversion, in a game played in cold, probably wet and blustery conditions at the MCG.

[The Fireman]

get the ball and kick it

[Sainternist]

I found this to be an odd sort of thread started by OP. I don't think even Richo has fully figured out a game plan for the team to stick to himself, let alone other teams cottoning on. This year has been all about tweaking and testing the waters in terms of what game plan suits the team best. Looks as though Richo may have found some very effective strategies for his young chargers for the season beyond.