The run home...

[Saints7]

historically clubs need 12 wins to make the 8....

my thoughts:

10 wins to round 10..

r.11 - deafeat North = 11 wins
r.12 - deafeat Blues = 12 wins
r.13 - defeat Tiges = 13 wins
r.14 - lose to Cats = 13 wins
r.15 - defeat WCE = 14 wins
r.16 - defeat Crows = 15 wins
r.17 - lose to Dogs = 15 wins
r.18 - defeat Swans = 16 wins
r.19 = lose to Hawks = 16 wins
r.20 = defeat Dons = 17 wins
r.21 = defeat North = 18 wins
r.22 = defeat Dees = 19 wins

thats how I see it = top 2 finish.

thoughts?

[Spinner]

Looking good.

Second has the same rights as first....Without the pressure.

Only difference is you get to play the third team instead of fourth.

[saint3d]

thoughts?

I think you've taken the 'we have to lose some time' logic and tried to find a few losses before the finals in order to avoid a perceived increase in pressure that a huge winning streak might bring. What's your rationale for us losing the games you've chosen?

How about a different angle: in each of the last ten years, 17 wins would lock in a top two spot. 15 or 16 wins have been enough some years, but 17 makes a certainty of it. Given that, can the Saints win 7 of their 12 remaining games? I would like to think so.

[saintsRrising]

thoughts?

I don't think that we will lose to all of Hawks, Cats and Dogs.

[saint3d]

Looking good.

Second has the same rights as first....Without the pressure.

Only difference is you get to play the third team instead of fourth.

You're fooling yourself if you think there's no pressure on second.

[SainterX]

I don't think we will lose to the Dogs, and Hawthorn seem like Port Adelaide in 04, content with 1 premiership.

First or second though there is pressure as Adelaide found out in '05

[Spinner]

Looking good.

Second has the same rights as first....Without the pressure.

Only difference is you get to play the third team instead of fourth.

You're fooling yourself if you think there's no pressure on second.

Absolutely no pressure on second.....Exactly what I meant.

One would be stupid, and as you stated 'fooling' oneself to think that there would be less pressure, even by the smallest of margins on the second placed team comparative to first. Now that would be a foolish thought.

[Spinner]

thoughts?

I think you've taken the 'we have to lose some time' logic and tried to find a few losses before the finals in order to avoid a perceived increase in pressure that a huge winning streak might bring. What's your rationale for us losing the games you've chosen?

How about a different angle: in each of the last ten years, 17 wins would lock in a top two spot. 15 or 16 wins have been enough some years, but 17 makes a certainty of it. Given that, can the Saints win 7 of their 12 remaining games? I would like to think so.

Doesn't the original post have us winning 19 games....

The first paragraph disagrees, depicting the the poster 'found' losses....while the second paragraph has you predicting we will win at least 17....

Im not sure even you know what your trying to say.

[starsign]

The run home .......
lets just take it OWAAT!

and if we can't make 1 or 2 with that draw then the Flag is pretty much out of the question!

[saint3d]

Looking good.

Second has the same rights as first....Without the pressure.

Only difference is you get to play the third team instead of fourth.

You're fooling yourself if you think there's no pressure on second.

Absolutely no pressure on second.....Exactly what I meant.

One would be stupid, and as you stated 'fooling' oneself to think that there would be less pressure, even by the smallest of margins on the second placed team comparative to first. Now that would be a foolish thought.

You're going to have to help me out because I don't know how else to interpret the words 'without the pressure'.

[matrix]

historically clubs need 12 wins to make the 8....

my thoughts:

10 wins to round 10..

r.11 - deafeat North = 11 wins
r.12 - deafeat Blues = 12 wins
r.13 - defeat Tiges = 13 wins
r.14 - lose to Cats = 13 wins
r.15 - defeat WCE = 14 wins
r.16 - defeat Crows = 15 wins
r.17 - lose to Dogs = 15 wins
r.18 - defeat Swans = 16 wins
r.19 = lose to Hawks = 16 wins
r.20 = defeat Dons = 17 wins
r.21 = defeat North = 18 wins
r.22 = defeat Dees = 19 wins

thats how I see it = top 2 finish.

thoughts?

why the dogs and hawks losses?
are they better than us??
i certainly dont think either will knock us over.
what i do think is that if we play trhe way we played the last three weeks against geelong then they will demolish us lol
the boyz have dropped intensity over the last few games....which is to be expected

[bigred]

Could drop ANY of those games.

[matrix]

yup
just as likley to lose against richmond as well as the dogs or the hawks

neither will happen tho

[saint3d]

thoughts?

I think you've taken the 'we have to lose some time' logic and tried to find a few losses before the finals in order to avoid a perceived increase in pressure that a huge winning streak might bring. What's your rationale for us losing the games you've chosen?

How about a different angle: in each of the last ten years, 17 wins would lock in a top two spot. 15 or 16 wins have been enough some years, but 17 makes a certainty of it. Given that, can the Saints win 7 of their 12 remaining games? I would like to think so.

Doesn't the original post have us winning 19 games....

The first paragraph disagrees, depicting the the poster 'found' losses....while the second paragraph has you predicting we will win at least 17....

Im not sure even you know what your trying to say.

If you insist, I'll simplify it as much as I can.

To make the top two, a team needs to win 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 or 22 games during the home and away season. The lowest of these numbers is 17, more commonly known as the 'minimum' number of wins required for a top two spot.

Since we are on ten wins already, another seven wins will ensure a top two spot. It's unnecessary to speculate on where those wins will come, except to say that I think we can win at least seven of the next twelve. Again I will clarify that 'at least' does not preclude the possibility of 'more than'.

I was implying that arbitrarily selecting last year's top three for our losses is a pessimistic method of determining our chances of a top two spot.

[Ghost Like]

The way this season is shaping, 15 or 16 wins will secure Top 2. 13 or 14 will get Top 4 and 11 may be enough to secure a final.

[InkerSaint]

Another way to look at it is this. By round 10 the top 4 is usually settled, as is the top 8. Barring 2005, in the last 5 years there has only been a one team difference in the makeup of the top 4 and a one team difference in the makeup of the top 8. In 2006 one team changed in the top 4 but the top 8 was made of the same teams from R10 to R22. In 2007 two teams changed in the top 4. Otherwise the above is the rule.

[marksnsparks]

Remember one thing, under RL we always have a better 2nd half to the season than 1st.

By that logic, the future is looking good!

22-0 here we come...

[Superboot]

The magical 17 wins shouldn't apply this year.

All teams currently below 4th position who can win 17 have to win every game from now on to do so.

Lions and Dogs would have to win 11 of the remaining 12 games.

Both have to play Geelong, the Dogs play us again, and they play each other in Round 20.

It's looking to me like 15 wins might do it.

[Milton66]

Apart from maybe having to play Geelong twice in the finals, if there's no interstate team in the top 4, does it really matter where you finish - 1st or 4th?

[Winmar7Fan]

Apart from maybe having to play Geelong twice in the finals, if there's no interstate team in the top 4, does it really matter where you finish - 1st or 4th?

Psychologically for confidence I'd say It would.

[Milton66]

Apart from maybe having to play Geelong twice in the finals, if there's no interstate team in the top 4, does it really matter where you finish - 1st or 4th?

Psychologically for confidence I'd say It would.

Maybe, maybe not. Given that the stated goal is to make the 8, then secure a top 4 spot.

Missing out on a top 2 spot because you've lost an extra game or 2 shouldn't impact you above the head.

Once the finals start, it's a whole new ball game.

[Spinner]

Looking good.

Second has the same rights as first....Without the pressure.

Only difference is you get to play the third team instead of fourth.

You're fooling yourself if you think there's no pressure on second.

Absolutely no pressure on second.....Exactly what I meant.

One would be stupid, and as you stated 'fooling' oneself to think that there would be less pressure, even by the smallest of margins on the second placed team comparative to first. Now that would be a foolish thought.

You're going to have to help me out because I don't know how else to interpret the words 'without the pressure'.

Without the pressure of first. Comparative.

I will no doubt minimize any 'interpretation' you will have to conduct for the future....Clearly this was too much for you to process, but keep debating this insignificant point if you want. Ill keep persisting to explain what I meant, and you'll continue pleading ignorance on your dismal interpretation. Round and round in circles we go.

[nathan000]

Looking good.

Second has the same rights as first....Without the pressure.

Only difference is you get to play the third team instead of fourth.

I think that would be a better result. Would rather face the Doggies then Hawthorn.

[3rd generation saint]

Right now I would say we would beat Hawthorn easily. The only thing that makes that game iffy is that it is played in launceston where we have never played well.
Plus with a 19-3 record what makes you think we will finish 2nd, who do Geelong play in the run home, you never know they may drop 3 too.

[Harvey To Hayes]

Apart from maybe having to play Geelong twice in the finals, if there's no interstate team in the top 4, does it really matter where you finish - 1st or 4th?

Ummm, yes....