Top 5 goal kickers for the Saints in 2024 (Best case scenario)

[NickyDal]

Max King - 75
Jack Higgins - 45
Dan Butler - 40
Tim Membrey - 40
Cooper Sharman - 35

A lot would need to go right for the above to happen.

What would be the odds??

[Sanctorum]

"What would be the odds??"

Astronomical

[Otiman]

Max King - 75
Jack Higgins - 45
Dan Butler - 40
Tim Membrey - 40
Cooper Sharman - 35

A lot would need to go right for the above to happen.

What would be the odds??

The average goals for a side in 2023 is 276. Highest in the comp Adelaide 320.

With 235 from 5 goalkickers, most of them playing lead up/marking roles. We would win the premiership 3 times over with these figures.

If we are going to be any good we need a lot more spread and avenues to goal. For starters, Higgins needs to kick more than 50% of his goals from free play instead of set shots.

I also don't think Sharman and Membrey will play in the same side too often.

[CQ SAINT]

Max King - 75
Jack Higgins - 45
Dan Butler - 40
Tim Membrey - 40
Cooper Sharman - 35

A lot would need to go right for the above to happen.

What would be the odds??

The average goals for a side in 2023 is 276. Highest in the comp Adelaide 320.

With 235 from 5 goalkickers, most of them playing lead up/marking roles. We would win the premiership 3 times over with these figures.

If we are going to be any good we need a lot more spread and avenues to goal. For starters, Higgins needs to kick more than 50% of his goals from free play instead of set shots.

I also don't think Sharman and Membrey will play in the same side too often.

If the plan for and develiver into the 50 works, then kicks from set shots anywhere from 50 - 35 out is exactly what we need.

Both King and Higgins are 2+ a game if they covert at 60%. Both Membrey and Sharman have proven the can do this. Members hashed some yipes but he wasn't alone.

Phillipou Wilson and Owens are the running men. They will be on the move attacking. Butler has a job upfield in rotations and Collard will be the free play wizard.

[Vortex]

then kicks from set shots anywhere from 50 - 35 out is exactly what we need

Around the 30 mark is what most afl game plans focus on which is a direct result of the modern two way game that caters for fatigue. The potential to score beyond 30 reduces dramatically outside of 30 in the modern game.

[B.M]

What the hell is wizard?

Collard will be a small forward at Sandy

[CQ SAINT]

What the hell is wizard?

Collard will be a small forward at Sandy

You might remember Jeff Farmer.

I dont have much n faith in your predictions, your eye tests or you post mortems of past players.

Best you keep whatever credibility you might still have and stop asking me questions.

[CQ SAINT]

then kicks from set shots anywhere from 50 - 35 out is exactly what we need

Around the 30 mark is what most afl game plans focus on which is a direct result of the modern two way game that caters for fatigue. The potential to score beyond 30 reduces dramatically outside of 30 in the modern game.

That's why we employed guys that can hit the zone I mentioned, coming off half back and we will have a big strong forward line that drags the defence out of their zone.

Let's not give away too many secrets though Vort.

[B.M]

Is Jeff Farmer a position now. Or are you talking about Nick Watson.

Post some more pics of Hill in 2020-2022 now

Credibility

Your long pointless incoherent waffle posts are incredible

[CQ SAINT]

Is Jeff Farmer a position now. Or are you talking about Nick Watson.

Post some more pics of Hill in 2020-2022 now

Credibility

Your long pointless incoherent waffle posts are incredible

Free play was a term used by another poster and Wizard was a style of play made famous by Farmer.

I know you have trouble with abstracts, so happy to help you out.

Maybe if you read someone else's posts, other than my incoherent waffle and your own one line assessments, you may get less confused and ask less questions but, I'm here to help, mate.

[CQ SAINT]

A wizard is a man that has magical powers, like you and your eye test goggles.

[Vortex]

That's why we employed guys that can hit the zone

Yep...and the zone is around 30 from goal

[CQ SAINT]

then kicks from set shots anywhere from 50 - 35 out is exactly what we need

Around the 30 mark is what most afl game plans focus on which is a direct result of the modern two way game that caters for fatigue. The potential to score beyond 30 reduces dramatically outside of 30 in the modern game.

The potential to kick goals outside of the 30 is where the good teams exceed the average.

The stats you've discovered show the accuracy rates across roughly 2650 shots at goal

The shots taken inside 30 reflect a better success rate. That is obvious.

What isn't so obvious is the number of shots, either snaps or set shots, which don't vary in accuracy, are easier so, there is considerably less of them available.

This is also the logic behind defensive zones. The focus is to minimise shots from this area. Which our team does better than most

Of the 2650 attempts kicked only 622 were taken inside 30 metres.

The shot compared to goals shows very different data

00 - 15m = 122 @ 97.7%
15 - 30m = 382 @ 78%
30 - 40m = 355 @ 59.2%
40 - 50m = 478 @ 46.6%
50m + = 138 @ 34.8%

So what do you want to see?

Running backs with accurate, booming kicks - Bonner and Shoey to take shots from 50+ out. Marshall Caminiti and Keeler also come to mind,
Attacking mid/fwds s with great speed and agility and accurate kicking working 40 - 50 metres out - Wilson Steele Henry Hill Bonner again, Sinclair. Philipou Owens look handy.
And finally 30 to 40m out guys like Higgins and King who win 1:1's kicking at around the 60% mark.

Threading all this together will be players like Butler Henry, Wilson and Collard getting onto the 0-30m zone where it's clearly the hardest to get either set shots or snaps on goal.

I'm not going to track it but I'll bet we are hoping to exceed the averages from 30 - 50m out and reduce fatigue by cutting the ground off before the ball gets too far from our attacking half.

We don't want to be average or predictable, we've done plenty of that in terms of attack, since Riewolft retired and Bruce left.

The science the Hawks boys brought over was based on much better players than what we had.

That is being addressed, not goal kicking likelyhood.

Accurate goal kicking starts with a mindset and most players can't get the ball and kick accurately between 0 and 35m. That's in the stats.

Mostly only key forwards and talented people like Membrey and Higgins can do that regularly over more than 100 games.

Longevity in the game isn't relative either

[Vortex]

then kicks from set shots anywhere from 50 - 35 out is exactly what we need

Around the 30 mark is what most afl game plans focus on which is a direct result of the modern two way game that caters for fatigue. The potential to score beyond 30 reduces dramatically outside of 30 in the modern game.

The potential to kick goals outside of the 30 is where the good teams exceed the average.

The stats you've discovered show the accuracy rates across roughly 2650 shots at goal

The shots taken inside 30 reflect a better success rate. That is obvious.

What isn't so obvious is the number of shots, either snaps or set shots, which don't vary in accuracy, are easier so, there is considerably less of them available.

This is also the logic behind defensive zones. The focus is to minimise shots from this area. Which our team does better than most

Of the 2650 attempts kicked only 622 were taken inside 30 metres.

The shot compared to goals shows very different data

00 - 15m = 122 @ 97.7%
15 - 30m = 382 @ 78%
30 - 40m = 355 @ 59.2%
40 - 50m = 478 @ 46.6%
50m + = 138 @ 34.8%

So what do you want to see?

Running backs with accurate, booming kicks - Bonner and Shoey to take shots from 50+ out. Marshall Caminiti and Keeler also come to mind,
Attacking mid/fwds s with great speed and agility and accurate kicking working 40 - 50 metres out - Wilson Steele Henry Hill Bonner again, Sinclair. Philipou Owens look handy.
And finally 30 to 40m out guys like Higgins and King who win 1:1's kicking at around the 60% mark.

Threading all this together will be players like Butler Henry, Wilson and Collard getting onto the 0-30m zone where it's clearly the hardest to get either set shots or snaps on goal.

I'm not going to track it but I'll bet we are hoping to exceed the averages from 30 - 50m out and reduce fatigue by cutting the ground off before the ball gets too far from our attacking half.

We don't want to be average or predictable, we've done plenty of that in terms of attack, since Riewolft retired and Bruce left.

The science the Hawks boys brought over was based on much better players than what we had.

That is being addressed, not goal kicking likelyhood.

Accurate goal kicking starts with a mindset and most players can't get the ball and kick accurately between 0 and 35m. That's in the stats.

Mostly only key forwards and talented people like Membrey and Higgins can do that regularly over more than 100 games.

Longevity in the game isn't relative either

DOS and his cohort wrote the handbook on potential to score.

30m is the focus.

[darylcowie]

A wizard is a man that has magical powers, like you and your eye test goggles.

He is not wizard, he is sleeve of wizard according to Borat!

[CQ SAINT]

then kicks from set shots anywhere from 50 - 35 out is exactly what we need

Around the 30 mark is what most afl game plans focus on which is a direct result of the modern two way game that caters for fatigue. The potential to score beyond 30 reduces dramatically outside of 30 in the modern game.

The potential to kick goals outside of the 30 is where the good teams exceed the average.

The stats you've discovered show the accuracy rates across roughly 2650 shots at goal

The shots taken inside 30 reflect a better success rate. That is obvious.

What isn't so obvious is the number of shots, either snaps or set shots, which don't vary in accuracy, are easier so, there is considerably less of them available.

This is also the logic behind defensive zones. The focus is to minimise shots from this area. Which our team does better than most

Of the 2650 attempts kicked only 622 were taken inside 30 metres.

The shot compared to goals shows very different data

00 - 15m = 122 @ 97.7%
15 - 30m = 382 @ 78%
30 - 40m = 355 @ 59.2%
40 - 50m = 478 @ 46.6%
50m + = 138 @ 34.8%

So what do you want to see?

Running backs with accurate, booming kicks - Bonner and Shoey to take shots from 50+ out. Marshall Caminiti and Keeler also come to mind,
Attacking mid/fwds s with great speed and agility and accurate kicking working 40 - 50 metres out - Wilson Steele Henry Hill Bonner again, Sinclair. Philipou Owens look handy.
And finally 30 to 40m out guys like Higgins and King who win 1:1's kicking at around the 60% mark.

Threading all this together will be players like Butler Henry, Wilson and Collard getting onto the 0-30m zone where it's clearly the hardest to get either set shots or snaps on goal.

I'm not going to track it but I'll bet we are hoping to exceed the averages from 30 - 50m out and reduce fatigue by cutting the ground off before the ball gets too far from our attacking half.

We don't want to be average or predictable, we've done plenty of that in terms of attack, since Riewolft retired and Bruce left.

The science the Hawks boys brought over was based on much better players than what we had.

That is being addressed, not goal kicking likelyhood.

Accurate goal kicking starts with a mindset and most players can't get the ball and kick accurately between 0 and 35m. That's in the stats.

Mostly only key forwards and talented people like Membrey and Higgins can do that regularly over more than 100 games.

Longevity in the game isn't relative either

DOS and his cohort wrote the handbook on potential to score.

30m is the focus.

Clearly its not a smart one.

[Vortex]

then kicks from set shots anywhere from 50 - 35 out is exactly what we need

Around the 30 mark is what most afl game plans focus on which is a direct result of the modern two way game that caters for fatigue. The potential to score beyond 30 reduces dramatically outside of 30 in the modern game.

The potential to kick goals outside of the 30 is where the good teams exceed the average.

The stats you've discovered show the accuracy rates across roughly 2650 shots at goal

The shots taken inside 30 reflect a better success rate. That is obvious.

What isn't so obvious is the number of shots, either snaps or set shots, which don't vary in accuracy, are easier so, there is considerably less of them available.

This is also the logic behind defensive zones. The focus is to minimise shots from this area. Which our team does better than most

Of the 2650 attempts kicked only 622 were taken inside 30 metres.

The shot compared to goals shows very different data

00 - 15m = 122 @ 97.7%
15 - 30m = 382 @ 78%
30 - 40m = 355 @ 59.2%
40 - 50m = 478 @ 46.6%
50m + = 138 @ 34.8%

So what do you want to see?

Running backs with accurate, booming kicks - Bonner and Shoey to take shots from 50+ out. Marshall Caminiti and Keeler also come to mind,
Attacking mid/fwds s with great speed and agility and accurate kicking working 40 - 50 metres out - Wilson Steele Henry Hill Bonner again, Sinclair. Philipou Owens look handy.
And finally 30 to 40m out guys like Higgins and King who win 1:1's kicking at around the 60% mark.

Threading all this together will be players like Butler Henry, Wilson and Collard getting onto the 0-30m zone where it's clearly the hardest to get either set shots or snaps on goal.

I'm not going to track it but I'll bet we are hoping to exceed the averages from 30 - 50m out and reduce fatigue by cutting the ground off before the ball gets too far from our attacking half.

We don't want to be average or predictable, we've done plenty of that in terms of attack, since Riewolft retired and Bruce left.

The science the Hawks boys brought over was based on much better players than what we had.

That is being addressed, not goal kicking likelyhood.

Accurate goal kicking starts with a mindset and most players can't get the ball and kick accurately between 0 and 35m. That's in the stats.

Mostly only key forwards and talented people like Membrey and Higgins can do that regularly over more than 100 games.

Longevity in the game isn't relative either

DOS and his cohort wrote the handbook on potential to score.

30m is the focus.

Clearly its not a smart one.

Clearly' only every coach uses the data to manage their game plan so can't be that smart...pretty sure his data helped Hawthorn win their recent threepeat so cant be that good huh.

[CQ SAINT]

then kicks from set shots anywhere from 50 - 35 out is exactly what we need

Around the 30 mark is what most afl game plans focus on which is a direct result of the modern two way game that caters for fatigue. The potential to score beyond 30 reduces dramatically outside of 30 in the modern game.

The potential to kick goals outside of the 30 is where the good teams exceed the average.

The stats you've discovered show the accuracy rates across roughly 2650 shots at goal

The shots taken inside 30 reflect a better success rate. That is obvious.

What isn't so obvious is the number of shots, either snaps or set shots, which don't vary in accuracy, are easier so, there is considerably less of them available.

This is also the logic behind defensive zones. The focus is to minimise shots from this area. Which our team does better than most

Of the 2650 attempts kicked only 622 were taken inside 30 metres.

The shot compared to goals shows very different data

00 - 15m = 122 @ 97.7%
15 - 30m = 382 @ 78%
30 - 40m = 355 @ 59.2%
40 - 50m = 478 @ 46.6%
50m + = 138 @ 34.8%

So what do you want to see?

Running backs with accurate, booming kicks - Bonner and Shoey to take shots from 50+ out. Marshall Caminiti and Keeler also come to mind,
Attacking mid/fwds s with great speed and agility and accurate kicking working 40 - 50 metres out - Wilson Steele Henry Hill Bonner again, Sinclair. Philipou Owens look handy.
And finally 30 to 40m out guys like Higgins and King who win 1:1's kicking at around the 60% mark.

Threading all this together will be players like Butler Henry, Wilson and Collard getting onto the 0-30m zone where it's clearly the hardest to get either set shots or snaps on goal.

I'm not going to track it but I'll bet we are hoping to exceed the averages from 30 - 50m out and reduce fatigue by cutting the ground off before the ball gets too far from our attacking half.

We don't want to be average or predictable, we've done plenty of that in terms of attack, since Riewolft retired and Bruce left.

The science the Hawks boys brought over was based on much better players than what we had.

That is being addressed, not goal kicking likelyhood.

Accurate goal kicking starts with a mindset and most players can't get the ball and kick accurately between 0 and 35m. That's in the stats.

Mostly only key forwards and talented people like Membrey and Higgins can do that regularly over more than 100 games.

Longevity in the game isn't relative either

DOS and his cohort wrote the handbook on potential to score.

30m is the focus.

Clearly its not a smart one.

Clearly' only every coach uses the data to manage their game plan so can't be that smart...pretty sure his data helped Hawthorn win their recent threepeat so cant be that good huh.

The 30m hotspot was quoted by DOS in 2004.

I think Buddy, Rioli, Roughead, Gunston and about 10 others player who regularly kicked goals, smashed that theory.

The hotspot was developed in an era when guys like Lockett Dunstan Ablett Salmon and Brown dominated contested marking in their forward 50.

Pagan designed his paddock for Carey.

Hawthorn and Dos proved my point.

Richmond ran a man on man rolling defence and also had multiple goal kickers capped off by dead eye dick Riewoldt and the shear strength of the very expensive recruit from GWS. How both those teams stayed under the cap was incredible.

I think you need to go have a look at the new goal kicking data (2012) I showed you from 2650 shots at goal and think about the running power of Buddy Franklin and Roughead and the number of half backs and lead up medium forwards kicking goals from the 3.5 - 4.0 point zone with ridiculous regularity.

You'll have to lift your data reading game if you wanna get that PhD.

This ain't chess, the board has free movement and the method of calculating estimated equity combined with the 2012 goal kicking data describes what Rath, DOS and the Gold Coast coach did.

It's a game of attrition and in a fast paced rebounding game of possession vs position, possession wil win everytime unless yoir forward has been as useless as ours has been.

Kent Billings Parker Marsh, the bloke with the hundred metre run up, Lonie etc, I could probably find a dozen.

Most of them were getting soft kicks running hard of half back.

I we had 11 half backs at one stage.

The influence of Paddy Jones and Butler was only dampened by injury and of course the tragic circumstances around McCartin and Hanna's.

I'm afraid you misread the analysis.

[CQ SAINT]

Its nice to have an interesting knowledge-base to discuss though.

DOS and Lyon must have gotten past the honeymoon and its clear that Lyon's old boss from Sydney was a believer. DOS probably has a very well educated opinion and can translate the data in situ.

DOS will be finding data that supports the promotion of the youngsters, with an immediate function they can express.

That will be what Ross wants. We've done nothing but chase the players who can kick to and from the big zone depicted in the forward 50 scoring potential map I will post soon.

Combined with DOS's 2004 presentation, it looks alot like the Hawthorn play book and we already have Hill, Sinclair, NWM and now Bonner delivering into the reliable 3.5 - 4.0 point zone to leading contested ball winners such as Membrey Higgins Hammer and King.

Wilson and Collard quick, agile and accurate.
Pou Owens and Sharman great relievers of clearance and capable of running both ways, then there is Steele and Wood attacking the 40 to 50 zone via the high % possesion retention flanks.

Windy attacking game deficiency had him sent to half back.

Sharman got developed as a dangerous tall forward (the way he came) utility.

Keeler is going to develop.intercept skills at Sandy and Wilson small forward/mid now since Butler opened the door.

Its clear the DOS thinks most coaches must misinterpret his data analysis because he doesn't extrapolate in his papers, into theory on best practice, like the 30m hotspot.

He just measures all the hotspot and the likelyhood of siccess from line to line down the field, that's what the data reports.

Team defence strategies want us kicking into the middle of their zone in the hotspot.

King is 45/55 chance from their and Higgins limit is probably 40-60 goals.

[CQ SAINT]

Top 15 goal kickers would be better
70 King
45 Snags
20 Membrey
20 Owens
15 Butler
15 Wilson
15 Marshall
15 Hammer
12 Sharman
12 Steele
12 Pou
12 Wood
10 Bonner
10 Henry
10 Collard

Provided injury doesn't reduce our flexibilities and force us play all our kids again, we could kick 300+ goals, an min average of 12.7 goals 10.3 behinds from the 30-50 range and we're a 55% chance from moderately difficult shots meaning we'd match the GWS attack and be highly competitive and share the load alone the way. We could finish in the top 6 easily.

If King goes down we make some one else the focus and hit the moderate percentage goal probability harder.

If we can model our game on this

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articl ... re/fig003/

[CQ SAINT]

Here's the set shots goal kicking accuracy data from 2012.

This was not DOS's work but he clearly inspired it and Hawthorn exploited it with a very accurate, tough and long kicking list.

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Set ... successful.

Check out their list of goalkickers during the 3 peat. They caused the lock down zone in the white section of the figure 3 from DOS's work above and just went around it and half way through the started pin poi ting the right spots when Buddy was leaving.

[Vortex]

You are on fire Willy Wonka.

But sometimes it's best to say nothing and not remove all doubt though.

[CQ SAINT]

You are on fire Willy Wonka.

But sometimes it's best to say nothing and not remove all doubt though.

If there's any doubt it about when we can achieve it.

We need 2 more goals a week to remove the doubt and 12 months and a big fish CHB to install an undeniable level of condfidence.

[Yorkeys]

Max King - 75
Jack Higgins - 45
Dan Butler - 40
Tim Membrey - 40
Cooper Sharman - 35

Feels uncomfortable to refer to comments by Hardwick in his early stages with Richmond, but I hazily recall him saying if one player, i.e. Reiwoldt the cousin in this instance, kicked 70 plus he might win the Colman but the side could not go top.

I interpreted that as meaning there had to be a large spread of goal kickers. (yes, doh!).
I think our reality is Max won't kick 70 because he receives so much physical punishment he will miss 25% of the season injured. Budget 50.
Higgins is not getting faster, smarter or more accurate under pressure and when tired, budget 30;
Dan might not even play, budget 20;
Tim is problematic for several reasons e.g. will he play as a first choice, getting older more prone to injuries, can get the yips, how's his confidence. Budget 30.
Cooper, played as a regular forward could average 2 a game, but budget 30.
So there needs to be a stack of goals from some unusual suspects: Owens, obviously, mids need to get more goal strikes: Clark can score others need to work on it; Wood is very good, Byrnes shows he can given opportunity, Steele is a reliable scorer when fit, Henry? Dow?
How's this for 2 bob each way, we have the talent to make the 4, but a lot has to go right.

[Otiman]

The Ideal is that King is the match winner.

Go to other targets for entries until the game is on the line then hit up King when they least expect it.

He might only kick 40 goals, but 20 match winning goals.