Luck of the Draw?

[StPeter]

Assuming Richmond beat WC today and take the Saint's place in the eight,
below is a list on how many times each of the top nine teams plays other teams currently out of the eight.
From memory this follows on from very difficult draws in the 2 previous years.
This puts us at a handicap of maybe 2 games against a team like Geelong who gets to play North and West Coast twice.

It is quite apparent that the Saints have copped the worst fixture on top of our eight matches out of Melbourne (7 interstate and 1 in Geelong)

Geel 4
Bris 4
Syd 4
Rich 4
Freo 3
Coll 3
Carl 2
Melb 2
StK 1

[SunnyErnie]

You need to base it on last years 8

[StPeter]

You need to base it on last years 8

I am talking about how it stands at the current position which is the most relevant.
Even based on last year's draw we still got arguably the most difficult.

[SunnyErnie]

As it stands now we got the rough end of the stick I agree. But it was just lady luck laughing at us like she normally does unfortunately

[SunnyErnie]

If only GC had beaten Collingfilth

[The_Dud]

Yeah, if only we got to play more inferior teams not in the 8 like Essendon or Port…

[SaintPav]

I did a ladder predictor.

Freo are not a sure thing.

[cwrcyn]

Based on current standings, our entire season is a about a 50/50 split between playing teams in the 8 and teams outside the 8. Can't complain about that.

[Saintmike65]

If only GC had beaten Collingfilth

They should have..14 points up with 8 minutes to go in a low scoring game!!!

[Saintmike65]

Fascinating climax to the season coming up..brace yourselves!

[Munga]

Yeah, if only we got to play more inferior teams not in the 8 like Essendon or Port…

Top 8 teams lose to other teams outside the top 8, it happens. It's just those teams in the top 8 are receiving more chances to play bottom teams.

Brisbane lost to Hawthorn.
Carlton lost to Gold Coast.
Carlton lost to St Kilda.
Collingwood lost to West Coast.
Collingwood lost to Bulldogs.
Fremantle lost to St Kilda.
Fremantle lost to Gold Coast.
Geelong lost to Hawthorn.
Geelong lost to St Kilda.
Richmond lost to St Kilda.
Richmond lost to Adelaide.
Sydney lost to Bulldogs.
Sydney lost to Gold Coast.
Sydney lost to Port Adelaide.
Sydney lost to Essendon.

We lost to Port by a point, and the Bombers. But we don't have the luxury of making it up with an easier fixture like the rest. Sydney have been the worst and probably deserve the top 8 the least.

[samuraisaint]

Assuming Richmond beat WC today and take the Saint's place in the eight,
below is a list on how many times each of the top nine teams plays other teams currently out of the eight.
From memory this follows on from very difficult draws in the 2 previous years.
This puts us at a handicap of maybe 2 games against a team like Geelong who gets to play North and West Coast twice.

It is quite apparent that the Saints have copped the worst fixture on top of our eight matches out of Melbourne (7 interstate and 1 in Geelong)

Geel 4
Bris 4
Syd 4
Rich 4
Freo 3
Coll 3
Carl 2
Melb 2
StK 1

Swans, Brisbane and Fremantle all should be wins to us at home.
Hawthorn are a bottom team and we play them at home as well.

Plus we play the second bottom team in the Eagles - we play them in Perth but we should still win that.

The Dogs are having a down year as well, so that's 50/50.

I think conservatively we win 5 from last 7.

[samuraisaint]

Yeah, if only we got to play more inferior teams not in the 8 like Essendon or Port…

Top 8 teams lose to other teams outside the top 8, it happens. It's just those teams in the top 8 are receiving more chances to play bottom teams.

Brisbane lost to Hawthorn.
Carlton lost to Gold Coast.
Carlton lost to St Kilda.
Collingwood lost to West Coast.
Collingwood lost to Bulldogs.
Fremantle lost to St Kilda.
Fremantle lost to Gold Coast.
Geelong lost to Hawthorn.
Geelong lost to St Kilda.
Richmond lost to St Kilda.
Richmond lost to Adelaide.
Sydney lost to Bulldogs.
Sydney lost to Gold Coast.
Sydney lost to Port Adelaide.
Sydney lost to Essendon.

We lost to Port by a point, and the Bombers. But we don't have the luxury of making it up with an easier fixture like the rest. Sydney have been the worst and probably deserve the top 8 the least.

Port did finish third last year, and in 2020 as well, and the game was played in a swamp.

We shouldn't have lost to Essendon though.

Our season's alive. We just need to keep winning, that's all.

[chook23]

Assuming Richmond beat WC today and take the Saint's place in the eight,
below is a list on how many times each of the top nine teams plays other teams currently out of the eight.
From memory this follows on from very difficult draws in the 2 previous years.
This puts us at a handicap of maybe 2 games against a team like Geelong who gets to play North and West Coast twice.

It is quite apparent that the Saints have copped the worst fixture on top of our eight matches out of Melbourne (7 interstate and 1 in Geelong)

Geel 4
Bris 4
Syd 4
Rich 4
Freo 3
Coll 3
Carl 2
Melb 2
StK 1

Swans, Brisbane and Fremantle all should be wins to us at home.
Hawthorn are a bottom team and we play them at home as well.

Plus we play the second bottom team in the Eagles - we play them in Perth but we should still win that.

The Dogs are having a down year as well, so that's 50/50.

I think conservatively we win 5 from last 7.

Very very optimistic

[CURLY]

Our fixture is a pile of s***. Games in Geelong which Carlton and Collingwood never have to worry about.

[The Fireman]

If we were a good team would it matter?

[SaintPav]

The Essendon loss was inexcusable and will hurt us.

I think it suits them to have their backs to wall.

[SaintPav]

If we were a good team would it matter?

Who knows, but that is beside the point.

Like all things these days, the fixture is rigged.

So much for “equity”.

[Sainter_Dad]

Assuming Richmond beat WC today and take the Saint's place in the eight,
below is a list on how many times each of the top nine teams plays other teams currently out of the eight.
From memory this follows on from very difficult draws in the 2 previous years.
This puts us at a handicap of maybe 2 games against a team like Geelong who gets to play North and West Coast twice.

It is quite apparent that the Saints have copped the worst fixture on top of our eight matches out of Melbourne (7 interstate and 1 in Geelong)

Geel 4
Bris 4
Syd 4
Rich 4
Freo 3
Coll 3
Carl 2
Melb 2
StK 1

I think you have miscalculated - for instance - we play Hawthorn, Bulldogs and Eagles - so that is 3 (and would be 4 if we had beaten Sydney as they would now be 9th)

I have:
Geelong Cats 5
Richmond 5
Brisbane Lions 4
Fremantle 4
Collingwood 4
Carlton 3
St Kilda 3
Melbourne 2

And if we won the game against Port:
Collingwood 5
Richmond 5
Geelong Cats 4
Fremantle 4
St Kilda 4
Sydney Swans 4
Brisbane Lions 3
Carlton 3
Melbourne 2

So I would think Melbourne is the worst in terms of playing outside of the 8 - but by far the better starting point

[Toy Saint]

It's technically not Luck of the Draw.

That would imply that the games were decided by drawing the teams from a hat, like they decide the barrier draw for the Melbourne Cup. If there was a draw, then luck plays an important part.

But the AFL schedule is not decided by a draw, perhaps calling it a fixture is more relevant. This means the schedule is arbitrarily fixed by the AFL.

The criteria for the fixture is not necessarily based on fairness or equality, but rather on optimizing or maximizing the commercial benefits for the AFL and their TV ratings.

So luck has nothing to do with it, the schedule un-apologetically fixed, and typically this favors the high rating teams.

[SaintWiki]

Our 2022 fixture looked difficult from the start, but we have only ourselves to blame for our current position out on the ladder because we lost winnable games and failed to build percentage when we had the opportunities.

[bangaulegend]

Our 2022 fixture looked difficult from the start, but we have only ourselves to blame for our current position out on the ladder because we lost winnable games and failed to build percentage when we had the opportunities.

Absolutely the loss to Port was just typical St.Kilda snatched defeat from the jaws of victory . Should have beaten North by 100 points but didn't , Essendon owned us ,Sydney owned us hence our % took a big hit so now we are a game down on percentage against teams challenging for 8 . Yeah it's a tough draw but we are our own worst enemy IMO anyway

[Devilhead]

No game going forward is a guaranteed win ... even Hawks and Eagles

[samuraisaint]

Our fixture is a pile of s***. Games in Geelong which Carlton and Collingwood never have to worry about.

Calton beat Geelong at Geelong in 2020 by 2 points. No excuses.

[samuraisaint]

Assuming Richmond beat WC today and take the Saint's place in the eight,
below is a list on how many times each of the top nine teams plays other teams currently out of the eight.
From memory this follows on from very difficult draws in the 2 previous years.
This puts us at a handicap of maybe 2 games against a team like Geelong who gets to play North and West Coast twice.

It is quite apparent that the Saints have copped the worst fixture on top of our eight matches out of Melbourne (7 interstate and 1 in Geelong)

Geel 4
Bris 4
Syd 4
Rich 4
Freo 3
Coll 3
Carl 2
Melb 2
StK 1

Swans, Brisbane and Fremantle all should be wins to us at home.
Hawthorn are a bottom team and we play them at home as well.

Plus we play the second bottom team in the Eagles - we play them in Perth but we should still win that.

The Dogs are having a down year as well, so that's 50/50.

I think conservatively we win 5 from last 7.

Very very optimistic

Not really - just going by the data. Empirically based prediction.
This week we play the Dockers here - v good recent record against them - won 7 of 11 - and 2 of those four losses were by 6 points or less.
Week after - Bulldogs at Docklands - won 3 out of last 4 including a final.
Then Eagles in Perth - currently sitting second last with two wins and a % of 55.
Hawks back at Docklands again - won our last 4 against them, and 5 out of 7. Three of those wins was by well over 10 goals.
Geelong at Geelong - okay, loss.
Brisbane at Dockands - probably lose that one, although winnable here.
Swans - here in Melbourne - beaten them easily the last two seasons, of course they have beaten us too, but it is our last home game of the season and I like us here combined with their recent inconsistency turns the game in our favour.

5 out of 7 simples.