Pick Swaps

[damienc]

We might not be done on the pick swap front.

There are reports we are negotiating with Brisbane for their first two picks in exchange for our pick 9 and Josh Battle.

I have no idea if any of this true. I guess this might help if one of our academy guys creeps into the top 20 or into a position where we have no hope of having enough points to bid for him.

[damienc]

Each NGA player will cost St Kilda 197 points

If we have to match prior to pick 41. From the trading done it looks like they're expecting our NGAs to go after 41 so they're only costing us next single pick rather than 2 picks combined, but the points of those combined are still enough should one of them get picked earlier. Plus we get an extra pick next year on top. Good trading if that's how it ends up happening.

So we either get:
NGA1, 2 and 3 for our 3 late picks
Or
NGA 1 for 2 picks, NGA 2 for last pick, and NGA 3 as a rookie.

It only really breaks down if 1 & 2 are both selected prior to pick 41

Cal Twomey had Windhager at 25 and has said he would have placed Owens at 31.
But wait what compensation will we get for Dunstan.
If that is end of 3rd round/start 4th = pick59 = 158 points, other late picks slip one place to become 63, 65 & 68
NGA1 cost picks picks 59 + 63
NGA2 costs picks 65 + 68 but that is 48 points short of 197 each of picks 65 + 68 would need to move forward on the night by 3 places.
Given one of those is 63 dropping out and multiple picks being used for Daicos & Darcy that should cover Windhager & Owens.
Now if Dustan gets mid 4th round that would add pick68
The 62 + 64 is 224 that gets NGA1
Then picks 67 + 68 is 128 points, 69 points short but advance them 4 places and NGA 2 is covered.
If NGA3 falls outside of the top 40 then pick 85 can be used if activated.

We will get nothing for Dunstan. He is an unrestricted free agent so he can go to the club of his choice.

[ace]

Only activated picks can be used at the draft so St Kilda needs 6 vacancies on the senior list to collect 4 players.
Carlisle, Dunstan, Frawley, McKernan, Roberton are gone from the senior list.
Wilkie will take one of those vacancies - he must be promoted off the Rookie list to retain.
But St Kilda was short 2 senior list players even before Roberton retired, so there is already 6 vacancies.
That is before decisions ae made on Kent and Lonie.

[ace]

Each NGA player will cost St Kilda 197 points

If we have to match prior to pick 41. From the trading done it looks like they're expecting our NGAs to go after 41 so they're only costing us next single pick rather than 2 picks combined, but the points of those combined are still enough should one of them get picked earlier. Plus we get an extra pick next year on top. Good trading if that's how it ends up happening.

So we either get:
NGA1, 2 and 3 for our 3 late picks
Or
NGA 1 for 2 picks, NGA 2 for last pick, and NGA 3 as a rookie.

It only really breaks down if 1 & 2 are both selected prior to pick 41

Cal Twomey had Windhager at 25 and has said he would have placed Owens at 31.
But wait what compensation will we get for Dunstan.
If that is end of 3rd round/start 4th = pick59 = 158 points, other late picks slip one place to become 63, 65 & 68
NGA1 cost picks picks 59 + 63
NGA2 costs picks 65 + 68 but that is 48 points short of 197 each of picks 65 + 68 would need to move forward on the night by 3 places.
Given one of those is 63 dropping out and multiple picks being used for Daicos & Darcy that should cover Windhager & Owens.
Now if Dustan gets mid 4th round that would add pick68
The 62 + 64 is 224 that gets NGA1
Then picks 67 + 68 is 128 points, 69 points short but advance them 4 places and NGA 2 is covered.
If NGA3 falls outside of the top 40 then pick 85 can be used if activated.

We will get nothing for Dunstan. He is an unrestricted free agent so he can go to the club of his choice.

But the AFL can award free agent compensation but that must be mid 4th round at worst.
They can't give nothing for a guy who got double digit Brownlow votes from only a handful of games.

[therabbitinthehat]

But the AFL can award free agent compensation but that must be mid 4th round at worst.
They can't give nothing for a guy who got double digit Brownlow votes from only a handful of games.

Pretty sure the compensation is based on what deal he is on at Melbourne (years + salary). If they're paying him very little (as a lot are predicting) we may end up getting nothing.

[ace]

We might not be done on the pick swap front.

There are reports we are negotiating with Brisbane for their first two picks in exchange for our pick 9 and Josh Battle.

I have no idea if any of this true. I guess this might help if one of our academy guys creeps into the top 20 or into a position where we have no hope of having enough points to bid for him.

That would be StKilda's pick 11 on the night for Brisbane's 16 + 20 on the night
Brisbane' s 1067 + 912 points for St Kilda' s 1329 points so values Battle at 417 points = pick41.

I would hate this.
St Kilda does not need multiple players they need the best player available at pick 11 on the night.

[ace]

But the AFL can award free agent compensation but that must be mid 4th round at worst.
They can't give nothing for a guy who got double digit Brownlow votes from only a handful of games.

Pretty sure the compensation is based on what deal he is on at Melbourne (years + salary). If they're paying him very little (as a lot are predicting) we may end up getting nothing.

We will know early tomorrow.

[saintly]

Each NGA player will cost St Kilda 197 points

If we have to match prior to pick 41. From the trading done it looks like they're expecting our NGAs to go after 41 so they're only costing us next single pick rather than 2 picks combined, but the points of those combined are still enough should one of them get picked earlier. Plus we get an extra pick next year on top. Good trading if that's how it ends up happening.

So we either get:
NGA1, 2 and 3 for our 3 late picks
Or
NGA 1 for 2 picks, NGA 2 for last pick, and NGA 3 as a rookie.

It only really breaks down if 1 & 2 are both selected prior to pick 41

Cal Twomey had Windhager at 25 and has said he would have placed Owens at 31.
But wait what compensation will we get for Dunstan.
If that is end of 3rd round/start 4th = pick59 = 158 points, other late picks slip one place to become 63, 65 & 68
NGA1 cost picks picks 59 + 63
NGA2 costs picks 65 + 68 but that is 48 points short of 197 each of picks 65 + 68 would need to move forward on the night by 3 places.
Given one of those is 63 dropping out and multiple picks being used for Daicos & Darcy that should cover Windhager & Owens.
Now if Dustan gets mid 4th round that would add pick68
The 62 + 64 is 224 that gets NGA1
Then picks 67 + 68 is 128 points, 69 points short but advance them 4 places and NGA 2 is covered.
If NGA3 falls outside of the top 40 then pick 85 can be used if activated.

We will get nothing for Dunstan. He is an unrestricted free agent so he can go to the club of his choice.

But the AFL can award free agent compensation but that must be mid 4th round at worst.
They can't give nothing for a guy who got double digit Brownlow votes from only a handful of games.

Compensation only goes to round 3. Probably we won't get compensation due his probable low salary

[Munga]

We might not be done on the pick swap front.

There are reports we are negotiating with Brisbane for their first two picks in exchange for our pick 9 and Josh Battle.

I have no idea if any of this true. I guess this might help if one of our academy guys creeps into the top 20 or into a position where we have no hope of having enough points to bid for him.

That would be StKilda's pick 11 on the night for Brisbane's 16 + 20 on the night
Brisbane' s 1067 + 912 points for St Kilda' s 1329 points so values Battle at 417 points = pick41.

I would hate this.
St Kilda does not need multiple players they need the best player available at pick 11 on the night.

I use this site for draft calculations, it puts Battle at pick 28-30:

https://www.draftguru.com.au/pick-value-calculator

Maybe the Lions will throw in a later pick as well. If they add pick 60, that would value Battle at pick 24, which seems ok, plus that pick 60 will become an early 50s pick on draft night and we can use that on NGA kids in the 3rd round.

[Banger9798]

We might not be done on the pick swap front.

There are reports we are negotiating with Brisbane for their first two picks in exchange for our pick 9 and Josh Battle.

I have no idea if any of this true. I guess this might help if one of our academy guys creeps into the top 20 or into a position where we have no hope of having enough points to bid for him.

That would be StKilda's pick 11 on the night for Brisbane's 16 + 20 on the night
Brisbane' s 1067 + 912 points for St Kilda' s 1329 points so values Battle at 417 points = pick41.

I would hate this.
St Kilda does not need multiple players they need the best player available at pick 11 on the night.

I use this site for draft calculations, it puts Battle at pick 28-30:

https://www.draftguru.com.au/pick-value-calculator

Maybe the Lions will throw in a later pick as well. If they add pick 60, that would value Battle at pick 24, which seems ok, plus that pick 60 will become an early 50s pick on draft night and we can use that on NGA kids in the 3rd round.

We are addicted by trying to get 2 for 1

[avid]

I'm glad we've got someone here who can do the arithmetic.
Thank you Ace (+ others). Hope you're right..