Split round list management meeting

[Solar]

Welcome and thankyou for coming to the split round saintational list management meeing. As we know two new sides are coming in and therefore the drafts will be harder to create young guns for our side.

So the list manager needs as much help as he can to develop this team up to 2013/14 (by then the drafts are back to normal).

So firstly here are a couple of names and numbers

Our current player over 30 are

Baker (30)
Lenny (30)
Gardiner (31)
King (31)
milne (30)

Those that will be over 30 come 2013

Blake (29)
Kosi (27)
joey (26)
peake (26)
Roo (27)

First List mangement rests around 30+ aged players. Currently the AFL is showing that you cannot carry anymore then 3-4 of these senior players on a list at any single time. So my questions are

1) how many more years do the guys 30+ have?

2) which of the older senior players can we carry into the 2013 side.

(note: injury or form could force our hand but lets put a plan in place).

Next I invite people to look at the balance of our list.

So do we have enough
Backs
Mids
Rucks
Forwards

Thus what type of player should we target in the next few drafts? Can we afford to trade a couple of players for draft picks (armo? gilbo to the god coast? etc.?)

Finally what rookies look like they might make the upgrade, second rookie year or cut?

Chips, dips and chocolate is here. Kettle is on for the hot drinks. May the list meeting begin......

[saintly]

Welcome and thankyou for coming to the split round saintational list management meeing. As we know two new sides are coming in and therefore the drafts will be harder to create young guns for our side.

So the list manager needs as much help as he can to develop this team up to 2013/14 (by then the drafts are back to normal).

So firstly here are a couple of names and numbers

Our current player over 30 are

Baker (30)
Lenny (30)
Gardiner (31)
King (31)
milne (30)

Those that will be over 30 come 2013

Blake (28)
Kosi (27)
joey (27)
peake (27)
Roo (27)

First List mangement rests around 30+ aged players. Currently the AFL is showing that you cannot carry anymore then 3-4 of these senior players on a list at any single time. So my questions are

1) how many more years do the guys 30+ have?

2) which of the older senior players can we carry into the 2013 side.

(note: injury or form could force our hand but lets put a plan in place).

Next I invite people to look at the balance of our list.

So do we have enough
Backs
Mids
Rucks
Forwards

Thus what type of player should we target in the next few drafts? Can we afford to trade a couple of players for draft picks (armo? gilbo to the god coast? etc.?)

Finally what rookies look like they might make the upgrade, second rookie year or cut?

Chips, dips and chocolate is here. Kettle is on for the hot drinks. May the list meeting begin......

ok, i am up for the challenge.



the ones that are currently over 30 will not make it to 2013,
and in fact, this will be king's last year.the others probably have 1-2 more years.

kosi, joey, peake and roo will survive for another 5 years. They will go to 2015.

by then you hopefully have stanley, walsh, mcevoy, miles, geartner, steven.

we will have major problems not having groomed a small forwards, more midfielders.

[Legendary]

Those over 30:

- Baker = in his best form for 3 years and always been very fit. I would give him another year definitely, and probably another 2 (takes him to 32).
- Lenny = will play until he's 34/35 like Banger. 4 years left.
- Gardiner = having a better year than last year (more consistent). If we won the flag, I reckon he'd give it away. If not, I reckon he's got 1 more year, takes him to 32.
- King = not part of the planning except as backup and a coach anyway.
- Milne = career best form, got another 2 seasons in him, would take him to 32. Will be the sort of bloke who drops off quickly though once age starts to catch up with him.

So Gardiner maybe 1 more, Bakes and Milney 2 more and Lenny 4 more years.

With those that will be 30 come 2013 (or over):
- Blake probably has another 2-3 years left from where he is now, I'd say 2013 would be his last year.
- Kosi hopefully has another 4 years in him, I actually see Stanley replacing him up forward next year and Kosi finishing his career as a ruck who pushes forward once Gardiner retires.
- Montagna = 5-6 years left, will play until he's 32/33
- Peake = fringe player, can be replaced by another fringe player fairly easily, not important to calculations.
- Riewoldt = "end of an era" type footballer, lose him and it will be like the Lions losing Voss, Bombers losing Hird ... will need to rebuild when this guy goes. Having said that, he's the sort of guy who will play deeper to goal the older he gets, and that will allow him to drag out his career. Should play until he's 32/33, I'd give him another 6 years.

So looking forward for replacements, in the next 6 years we are losing 2 A-grade midfielders (Montagna, Hayes), 1 champion CHF (Riewoldt), 2 B-grade defenders (Baker, Blake), 1 A-grade small forward (Milne), 1 B-grade ruck/forward (Kosi) and 1 B-grade ruckman (Gardiner).

Replacements?
Stanley for the forward. Will be 24/25 when Rooey retires, coming into his peak.
McEvoy for Kosi as the ruck/forward. Will be 25 when Kosi retires, should be at his peak.
Geary for Baker. Gaertner for Blake. Alistair Smith for Montagna. Steven for Hayes?
No-one for Milne. No-one for Gardiner.

[Otiman]

Don't you mean plan to bottom out by 2013/14?

[iwantmeseats]

hmmm, we need to develop midfield goal kickers. Actually, if you have pace to burn you can almost be excused from kicking goals. yes, well maybe not exactly but....

We need pace, and like someone else said, we are going to have a huge hole in the midfield eventually.

[stinger]

oh ffs.... ...stupid thread....

[F_Q_F]

oh ffs.... ...stupid thread....

And you have to post it in because...

[Saintsfan]

It is difficult to put a timeframe on went players will retire cause one has to remember this is a very well paying job first and foremost.

Players do not leave of their own accord unless injury has made it impossible so play on thus securing a new contract. Or the 'retire with dignity' i.e. Russel Robertson were you have a 54246246 minute press conference for an average player.....

[dcstkfc]

oh ffs.... ...stupid thread....

I 100% disaggree. List management is at least in my opinion a critical and intriguing science.

Anyway:

King- definitely last year for the club, but still a chance to play in a flag this year.

Gardi- Second last year, last if we go all the way I'd reckon, the kind of guy who's body is almost shot sadly.

Bakes- Similar to Gardi, still doing his job regularly and well but losing speed and hopefully gets a flag this year or next because he'll be out the door by the end of 2011. Geary being primed to take over small defensive post it seems.

Blake- Playing well, a year younger than Baker, probably out at end of 2012. Ideally one or both of Johnson and Gaertner come on.

Milney- A footy genius, we would be much weaker for losing him, shows no sign of stopping, probably got 2-3 years to come after this one, would see him out until 2012-2013.

Lenny- A champion- still at or near the peak of his powers, will probably end up going until about the 300 game mark- end of 2013.

Roo- Asssuming no long-lasting impact on injury (please no) once in a generation player who quite rightly may end up playing deeper as he loses some pace and ideally can go on until he's at least 33 or so- end of 2015-2017.

Kosi- With the development of Stanley, good chance his future lies in the ruck with Big Mac, and as a resting ruckman up forward. Due to terrible injuries prior to his 25th birthday, he has only played 150 games, so may be able to go on for a fair while yet, say until the end of 2014.

Sam Fisher (people don't realise, he was a mature-age recruit, turns 28 next month )- Going along very well, but just be aware that once you get to 30 things can change quickly.

Gram, Jones, Dal Santo, Montagna (All 26)- All important mids who barring significant injuries can continue to carry us forward for 4 years each at least. Ideally though there is good pressure coming through from the young guys- Armitage, Steven, A. Smith and hopefully another bolter, because this is now the 3rd year of our midfield being pretty much the same bar the inclusion of Ray, and whilst Joey and Dal are guns who should be very good until they are around 31 at least, Jones and Gram are the types who can very quickly through form or injury fall off the scene- especially if the premiership window closes.

Schneider- Kind of guy that you get rid of as soon as your window closes- 2012-2016 depending on how team is going.

Peake- Looks OK but the kind of guy that unless he lifts dramatically is eminently expendable, could be gone by end of 2012, but by same token could be there in 2016.

Leigh Fisher- Kept on list due to contractual reasons- last year.

These are all our guys 26 and over.

We have A LOT OF THEM. It is scary. We have the kind of average age that could fall over at the end of the season, but because most of the core are still around 26-27, we probably have 2 years as a genuine flag threat.

I would have said that it'd be longer, but the young guys aren't coming on at all really.

We might be able to extend the window for a couple of years beyone 2012, with the core of Roo, Joey, Dal, Gilbo, Chips, BJ, Gram, Jones, Ray, Raph, Gwilt but in order to do this, we need to be recruiting well and developing well.

This doesn't seem to be the case at the moment. Our last definitely really good draft pick was Gilbo. In order for us to still be a flag threat and to avoid the re-build in 2013-2017 (yes seriously that soon and that long), we need dramatic improvement from at least half of:

-Armitage
-McEvoy
-Steven
-Geary
-Heyne
-Lynch
-A. Smith
-Gaertner
-Johnson
-Winmar
-Cahill
-Simpkin
-McGrath
-WALSH

In all honesty, I do fear for our future if we don't bag a flag by 2012, I feel that this golden generation will have run its race. Then again, we re-invigorated ourselves in 2006-2007 when it looked bad on the back of surprising improvement from Montagna, Fisher, Gilbert and Jones, and the good recruiting of Dawson, Ray, Schneider and Gardiner.

We have some hope of a bright 2013-2017, it could go either way.

The main thing though is that we bag one this year or next, because teams can usurp you quickly.

As for the types of players to be recruitng, well I'd say it really depends on how Stanley and Walsh come on. Always worth looking at key position forward prospects though. Mid-sized forwards seem to be OK with Lynch and Heyne.

I'd definitely be on the lookout for another small forwarf, it was a good move having a crack at choo-choo last year, keep looking for these guys in the rookie draft- but don't waste 1st round picks on them- e.g. Tambling.

Big Mac is developing so ruck isn't a huge concern yet, and you can always recycle one from another club as some teams always have surplus ruckmen.

Inside mids seem an issue. Armitage and Steven have to develop, they need to keep on playing both I reckon.

Pace is still a concern for us, but very few premierships teams win because of speed, it is most imperative we draft guys who can win it- e.g. Lenny, and guys who can use it- e.g. Dal and BJ.

As for the defence, I am actually very confident going forward. Ideally we should find a genuine gun negating full-back (Walsh could be this man) but with Ross's excellent defensive zone, and a sokid young group of Gilbo, Gwilty, Ray, Raph, Zac and Geary, I am not too worried. Hopefully one of Walsh, Gaertnet or Johnson can really come on.

So in terms of priorities: 1. Inside Mids
2. Small forwards
3. Key forwards
4. Outside mids
5. Defenders
6. Ruckmen

I think one thing we do have as an advantage is an excellent coach. I have so much faith from what occurred against Hawthorn in Tassie last year, this was an extremely inexperienced side that coped easily with the reigning premier due to an excellent gameplan.

Paul Roos managed to keep Sydney in the 8 from 2003-2008, and Ross is most similar to Roos as a coach.

As a final point of warning though: 1. If we win this flag, the club should not be afraid to start moving guys on to keep the hunger amongst the younger group.
2. If tragically we cannot win one by the end of 2012, it's time to do a Freo and start the re-build hastily.

In Round 1 2008 the Dockers team included Peter Bell, Heath Black, Josh Carr, Matthew Carr, Jeff Farmer, Mark Johnson, Shaun McManus and Dean Solomon.

They soon realised these guys weren't going to deliver a flag, and now a young side with guys like Ibbotson, Hill, Palmer, Barlow, Ballantyne, van berlo, Morabito, Fyfe, Mayne, Suban and Broughton have got games under their belt and quickly become a good side.

The worst thing a team can do is try and top up when they are not good enough, the kind of thing Essendon did around 2004 when they got Justin Murphy, Matthew Allan, Richard Cole, Damian Cupido, Mark Alvey etc.

We are seeing the perils of Brisbane's recruiting policy of getting Fev, Raines, Staker, Goose, X, Buchanan already.

Richmond did the same in 2002 when they brought in Stafford, Sziller, Paul Hudson, Adam Houlihan, and they haven't made the finals since.

We are in the business of winning flags, and Geelong, Hawthorn and West Coast have all shown the best way of doing that is getting a young, talented core together and letting them grow.

We have done the same, and we may or may not reap the desired result. If we don't we can blame wastefulness in 2004 and 2009, injuries in 2005, and perhaps the greatest team of all time in 2010.

But things can turn back quickly provided the right choices are made, and soon we will have to realise that we are in the race no more.

[borderbarry]

Recruited in 2009 we have, Winmar, and the rookies Walsh, Hutchins, and Archer. Also gained Peake Patterson and J.Smith through trades. Of these I would say Peake is serviceable, Winmar could make it on the wing or as a defender but has not had enough games to be sure, Hutchins and Walsh are both looking good, Hutchins for the midfield, Walsh defender or forward. J.Smith could be anything as a defender. Patterson looks good at VFL level. Archer is a big forward, but is only young yet. Not a great years recruiting really,but not that bad considering our No.1 pick was thrown away.

[Solar]

oh ffs.... ...stupid thread....

explain why it's a stupid thread? Most clubs would be planning this far out and we all discuss past drafting why not have a look at future drafting. If you would rather post crap then do it in another thread.

[Solar]

Great posts so far

I'm glad I'm not the only one who see's the golden generation running out around 2013, just in time for a decient draft.

I agree that a macca/kosi combo going forward with perhaps a mature back up (anyone in the VFL playing well as a ruckman?) would be viable. This relies on stanley and perhaps a cahill coming on (has improved for sandy). We have a couple of talls developing via the rookie list and it will be interesting what happens with gaertner, johnson, walsh etc. come seasons end.

Totally agree about developing a pure small forward but we have a couple of years grace to do this before one of schneids or milne goes IMO.

Inside midfielders are a worry and will take some good development from lower picks to do this. I would not use a high draft pick in the next few years on them, would rather focus on someone with good foot skills.

Do we keep trading in the next two years before the bubble bursts? Or are we gun shy after the lovett stuff up.

[saintly]

Great posts so far

I'm glad I'm not the only one who see's the golden generation running out around 2013, just in time for a decient draft.

I agree that a macca/kosi combo going forward with perhaps a mature back up (anyone in the VFL playing well as a ruckman?) would be viable. This relies on stanley and perhaps a cahill coming on (has improved for sandy). We have a couple of talls developing via the rookie list and it will be interesting what happens with gaertner, johnson, walsh etc. come seasons end.

Totally agree about developing a pure small forward but we have a couple of years grace to do this before one of schneids or milne goes IMO.

Inside midfielders are a worry and will take some good development from lower picks to do this. I would not use a high draft pick in the next few years on them, would rather focus on someone with good foot skills.

Do we keep trading in the next two years before the bubble bursts? Or are we gun shy after the lovett stuff up.

i think we should keep trading, especially over the next 2 years. Just do more due dilligence on the type of guys that have backgrounds that are .... well you know what i mean.

there will be a desparate need for small forwards in the the next 2-3 years. They tried with Ross T. but have not treid again in last years draft. How wonderful if the saints had picked one of the Davey's a Jetta, or a Brad Dick,. they must continue with the rookie system maybe not with just one aboriginal kid, but 2 from the same area to help each other out.

I hope Simpkin gets elevated next year, and Cahill.

inside Mids will be a great issue if Armitage goes to the gold coast or if he does not develop.

gee wouldn't it have been great to see lovett running through the lines during this year. We will need some fast running type of players very soon. Unless we trade for them.

[stinger]

oh ffs.... ...stupid thread....

explain why it's a stupid thread? Most clubs would be planning this far out and we all discuss past drafting why not have a look at future drafting. If you would rather post crap then do it in another thread.

you post enough crap for both of us.....here and on the general forum....








i'm actually sorry for giving this crap air.....

[bigred]

oh ffs.... ...stupid thread....

explain why it's a stupid thread? Most clubs would be planning this far out and we all discuss past drafting why not have a look at future drafting. If you would rather post crap then do it in another thread.

you post enough crap for both of us.....here and on the general forum....








i'm actually sorry for giving this crap air.....

Yeah...who needs forward planning?

[st.byron]

oh ffs.... ...stupid thread....

explain why it's a stupid thread? Most clubs would be planning this far out and we all discuss past drafting why not have a look at future drafting. If you would rather post crap then do it in another thread.

you post enough crap for both of us.....here and on the general forum....


i'm actually sorry for giving this crap air.....

Completely unnecessary Stinger. If you're not interested don't post in it. The amount of absolute irrelevant bollocks you've posted in the general forum and you're panning someone who's actually talking about footy. You must be having a little 'turn'. You've been quite good lately but your play by the rules veneer is getting a bit thin and the nastiness and eye rolls are back. Go and take your meds you grumpy old turkey.

[stinger]

oh ffs.... ...stupid thread....

explain why it's a stupid thread? Most clubs would be planning this far out and we all discuss past drafting why not have a look at future drafting. If you would rather post crap then do it in another thread.

you post enough crap for both of us.....here and on the general forum....


i'm actually sorry for giving this crap air.....

Completely unnecessary Stinger. If you're not interested don't post in it. The amount of absolute irrelevant bollocks you've posted in the general forum and you're panning someone who's actually talking about footy. You must be having a little 'turn'. You've been quite good lately but your play by the rules veneer is getting a bit thin and the nastiness and eye rolls are back. Go and take your meds you grumpy old turkey.

if you do not like my posts don't read them you little obnoxious gosling....


apart from you.....the one thing that gets up my nose is idiots who want to start threads about trading (or cutting) our players half way into a season..always has...always will........as if their views are in anyway relevant ffs.... ...i react the same every year....so ..no..i'm not having 'a turn "as you so insultingly put it....

"been quite good lately"...have i?...you condescending little twat.....

[mad saint guy]

if you do not like my posts don't read them you little obnoxious gosling....

If you don't like these threads then don't post in them.

apart from you.....the one thing that gets up my nose is idiots who want to start threads about trading (or cutting) our players half way into a season..always has...always will........as if their views are in anyway relevant ffs.... ...i react the same every year....so ..no..i'm not having 'a turn "as you so insultingly put it....

Are anyone's view on here actually 'relevant?'

With a week off footy, why not talk about the future of the club? No selections to ponder, little to no media to whinge about and no great controversy unravelling leaves little to talk about.

Some people enjoy thinking about the future and what actions the club will need to take to keep the team competitive. No one likes reading "shut up ffs ffs wanker .....ffs stupid ..... ffs tossbag.....ffs"

[dcstkfc]

oh ffs.... ...stupid thread....

explain why it's a stupid thread? Most clubs would be planning this far out and we all discuss past drafting why not have a look at future drafting. If you would rather post crap then do it in another thread.

you post enough crap for both of us.....here and on the general forum....


i'm actually sorry for giving this crap air.....

Completely unnecessary Stinger. If you're not interested don't post in it. The amount of absolute irrelevant bollocks you've posted in the general forum and you're panning someone who's actually talking about footy. You must be having a little 'turn'. You've been quite good lately but your play by the rules veneer is getting a bit thin and the nastiness and eye rolls are back. Go and take your meds you grumpy old turkey.

if you do not like my posts don't read them you little obnoxious gosling....


apart from you.....the one thing that gets up my nose is idiots who want to start threads about trading (or cutting) our players half way into a season..always has...always will........as if their views are in anyway relevant ffs.... ...i react the same every year....so ..no..i'm not having 'a turn "as you so insultingly put it....

"been quite good lately"...have i?...you condescending little twat.....

Stinger do you think the club isn't already planning out to some extent how long they want some guys to go on?

[Solar]

guys and girls, ignore stinger.... he's just pissed that I don't like the idea of a bible basher as our next prime minster. If he doesn't like this thread it means its good.

BTW it's not writing anyone off? Some players on the list will have to lift if they are to stay on the list, those on the rookie list have to push for a spot on the main list. It's part of life in a AFL organisation.... stiff bickies

Ask Kingy and he will say that this will be his last year. Perhaps baker and gards might retire if we pull off th flag. All of a sudden we are missing two main rucks and our best small back. Hel lets not plan for this

Who needs to lift? Who could be looking for a new place at the end of the year? These are good questions to ask and I think our list is healthy enough to develop until 2013.

[borderbarry]

If above posters are correct, and both King and Gardiner retire, we are back to square one again as far as rucks are concerned. Big Ben is a long way off being a No. 1 Ruckman, and who will be 2nd. Patterson, Stanley, McGrath? Or will we have to rely on 197 cm Kosi?

[stinger]

No one likes reading "shut up ffs ffs wanker .....ffs stupid ..... ffs tossbag.....ffs"

that right is it.?..you find a post of mine in the past few years where i have called anyone a wanker or a tossbag

[mad saint guy]

No one likes reading "shut up ffs ffs wanker .....ffs stupid ..... ffs tossbag.....ffs"

that right is it.?..you find a post of mine in the past few years where i have called anyone a wanker or a tossbag

Any different to 'condescending little twat?'

[stinger]

No one likes reading "shut up ffs ffs wanker .....ffs stupid ..... ffs tossbag.....ffs"

that right is it.?..you find a post of mine in the past few years where i have called anyone a wanker or a tossbag

Any different to 'condescending little twat?'

...i thought that was pretty apt....

.....that was in response to this

" Go and take your meds you grumpy old turkey."


....didn't see you having a go at the poster for that comment....so your comments are hypocritical..


..i only ever respond ....badly at times i admit

[gringo]

It's really hard to pick who will come up out of the VFL and make it. History says not too many but there are some obvious ones to watch Stanley looks like a future star, Walsh, the 2 Smiths, Steven and Armo all look like they have the goods. Eddy and Geary are already on their way but of the next group it's hard to tell. I didn't see Gilbert coming in and being a star at the same stage.

I would like us to get aggressive on poaching up and comers from Essendon and Carlton etc. like they always seemed to when we had players coming out of contract. Make some plays for Sharrod Wellingham or Brad Dick and make the pies suffer the cost of paying Luke Ball twice his value.

Otherwise push for some Geelong fringe players just to make it harder to keep their list together.

Yeah I am a malicious prick but other teams did it to us for years.