Is the ladder Lyon?

[saynta]

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/is- ... 5dsvs.html

"Is the ladder Lyon? Why St Kilda might take the fifth
Peter Ryan
By Peter Ryan
August 1, 2023 — 6.53pm



Here’s one for the St Kilda sceptics who think the ladder may be lying as a different top eight seems to lob like Tattslotto numbers after every round of football.

Between rounds nine and 16 this season the Saints stayed anchored in fifth spot, despite winning just three of the seven games they played in that period and not stringing together two consecutive wins.

No one could dislodge them as they became the AFL’s Jenga masters on the fringes of the top four.

Each week they held on to the spot by percentage and each week, until the days before round 16, that percentage became smaller bit by bit – holding a lead on percentage of 18.3 over the Western Bulldogs after round nine. The percentage gap narrowed to 11.5, then 9.6 per cent, before the Bombers took up the chase from sixth spot with the gap at 8.7 per cent.

They then closed within 6.3, but the Saints held firm, somehow clinging to fifth as the gap dropped to 2.2 after round 15. The Bulldogs then jumped back into sixth as the Saints stormed clear to create a buffer of 4.1 per cent.
Can Ross Lyon lead the Saints into the finals in 2023?

Can Ross Lyon lead the Saints into the finals in 2023?

Alas, it could not last, could it? The Saints then lost to Melbourne, Essendon beat Adelaide, and Collingwood beat the Bulldogs to switch positions, with Essendon taking fifth (by .03 per cent) and St Kilda sixth while the Bulldogs fell to seventh.

The Saints’ ride as the peloton leader of those scrambling for spots outside the top four appeared over when Geelong jumped to fifth, and for the first time since round eight more than mere percentage separated fifth and sixth.
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Saints coach Ross Lyon could see the humour in the assumption that the Saints were tumbling down the ladder like they had landed on a snake in the board game, telling Fox Footy after defeating North Melbourne: “You hear the narrative and then I click on [to look at the ladder] and think ‘oh, we are sixth, how does that happen?’,” Lyon said. “Everyone tells me the ladder doesn’t lie. Does it lie?”

The Bulldogs claimed fifth after round 18, just ahead of St Kilda, but this mob might be tougher than we think under Lyon’s coaching and, by the end of round 20, or as Snap Shot refers to it, upsy-down-town round, the Saints reclaimed their spot in fifth place, again on the same points as sixth but this time with a lead on percentage of 4.1 over a new chaser, Greater Western Sydney.

So, it’s all there for the Saints as they play Carlton in round 21, with a loss to the Blues certain to again dislodge Lyon’s men from fifth spot.

Meanwhile, throughout that time, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, the Brisbane Lions and Melbourne have remained in the top four since round nine.

Poor Essendon got tired chasing St Kilda and are 13th after dropping three games, while neither Sydney nor Richmond have been in the top eight since round five."

[The_Dud]

Quick maths says that if we win 2 of our remaining 4 we're pretty much safe, though sadly I can't see us doing that unless we somehow turn our form back around to that of the beginning of the season.

Beat Richmond? Maybe. Cats? Maybe. Carlton and Brisbane both look very difficult.

[SaintPav]

Why can’t we beat Carlton? We have the wood over them over recent seasons.

[Scollop]

FoxFooty On the Couch had a 'form' ladder showing just the last 6 rounds and Carlton sat on top with 6 wins and the highest percentage. GWS were second.

If we can limit the supply to their forwards we can beat them. We need to break even in clearances and contested footy

If Steele, Crouch, Owens, Clark, Gresh and Marshall can match it with Cripps and co. we'll be in the game.

No Cerra, Walsh or Harry Mackay. I'm backing a low scoring affair. Maybe a draw

[Sanctorum]

Why can’t we beat Carlton? We have the wood over them over recent seasons.

You're right Pav, St Kilda had a good win over Carlton earlier in the season, but since then Carlton has found some scintillating form culminating in knocking off Collingwood last round.

The key is for St Kilda to start the game strong as they did against Hawthorn and if they do that there's every chance they will win again.

Last week Sharman did a superb job stopping James Sicily from dominating in defence. This week they need someone to prevent Charlie Curnow kicking a bag of goals. It can be done and maybe Wilkie is the man for the job.

If King and Membrey return I'd be inclined to play the latter in defence as he is a great mark which would allow Wilkie to focus entirely on Curnow.

It's all about matchups on the day, get that to work well and St Kilda could surprise the pundits who will have their money on the Blues.

[Jacks Back]

FoxFooty On the Couch had a 'form' ladder showing just the last 6 rounds and Carlton sat on top with 6 wins and the highest percentage. GWS were second.

If we can limit the supply to their forwards we can beat them. We need to break even in clearances and contested footy

If Steele, Crouch, Owens, Clark, Gresh and Marshall can match it with Cripps and co. we'll be in the game.

No Cerra, Walsh or Harry Mackay. I'm backing a low scoring affair. Maybe a draw

Geez, we don't want a draw. Our percentage is s*** compared to the teams that have drawn. But 2 points is better than none.

[MC Gusto]

Sadly Carlton are flying - I was really enjoying their pathetic season up until 6 rounds ago.

They’ll be tough let’s be honest. Not impossible tho and recent matches against them would show we have the wood. Also the dome suits us here so I’m quietly confident

We should beat Richmond tho. I’d be disappointed if we didn’t and I reckon we can do the cats also.

Brisbane away is always tough so I’m guessing 2 wins out of the next 3 with a loss at seasons end

[The_Dud]

Why can’t we beat Carlton? We have the wood over them over recent seasons.

Of course anyone can beat anyone, but Carlton are in red hot form the last 6 weeks, including beating the top 2 teams, and in that same time we haven't beaten anyone above 16th on the ladder...

So I'd say they're favourites!

[SaintPav]

Favourites, shmavorites!

Go Saints!

[D.B.Cooper]

I felt at the time our loss to Hawthorn would likely cost us a finals spot.

That 4 point buffer now would be very handy.

[The G Train Legacy]

Why can’t we beat Carlton? We have the wood over them over recent seasons.

We've had the wood on them for all of the 21st century.

[Jacks Back]

Why can’t we beat Carlton? We have the wood over them over recent seasons.

We've had the wood on them for all of the 21st century.

Yep, ever since Hamill came to us and their pres, Elliot, said we were crap and why would he go to the Saints.