2019 New Dawn - 2020 New Dawn Fades

[darylcowie]

2019 has seen the introduction of many mature-age recruits, who have performed solidly and a couple of injury-ravaged, but elite youngsters in Bytel and King.

It has also seen the unavailability of several key players for most or all of this year, due to injury or "rebuilding".

The club has done about all it could to turn things around this year IMHO and I think 8 wins will probably see us out as we continue to lose players to injury.

Speaking of injuries and "rebuilding", I think the club should give serious consideration to retiring all of Carlisle, Hannebery, Roberton, Longer, Armitage, Brown and McCartin.

They should definitely retire Roberton, Armitage and McCartin IMHO.

This will cut our losses with some great club servants, but they're done!

It will also free up some salary cap space, which we will probably have to use to keep Gresham and Billings, etc., rather than attract any elite talent from other clubs.

Who knows, in the unlikely event that we do manage to win enough games to play finals, perhaps we will be seen as a more attractive suitor by elite, out-of-contract players from other clubs.

By the way, the title of this thread is a deliberate nod to the iconic post-punk group, Joy Division's song of the same name, which is the most sombre song ever written!

[SaintPav]

Carlisle will be back this year.

[outside66]

Big clean out and it's not even spring!

Carlisle is tracking well but if he doesn't play or is still under a cloud then I'd go with a 1-2 year deal on a lot less coin that he's on now. He owes us really but I wouldn't be surprised if he bailed elsewhere should we be reluctant to offer anything significant.

Robbo and Paddy are contracted until the end of 2021 and 2020 respectively so retiring them early won't free up any salary space. We'd only do it if both were 100% not able to play again.

I agree that Armo is done, I've seen him a few times in the VFL and he doesn't look anywhere near the pace of the twos let alone AFL level.

Brown potentially could go again if need be, it's all dependent on how Clavarino, Austin, Joyce, Marsh etc develop.

We'd be mad to cut Hannaz given how much we've paid for him.

Longer could well be delisted but let's hope he can prove many of us wrong in that he can become a quality ruckman of the AFL.

[Premium89]

Speaking of injuries and "rebuilding", I think the club should give serious consideration to retiring all of Carlisle, Hannebery, Roberton, Longer, Armitage, Brown and McCartin.

**************

I’ll have some of what you’re having!! Hannebery 6 months into a 5 year deal...
Carlisle one of our best players when fit...
Armo will probably retire, fair enough - but at least let the docs have the final say on Robbo and Paddy!

[Otiman]

Brown is playing the best games of his career right now. The rest should be given a every opportunity to bounce back. Agree Armitage is probably on his last legs if he can't break into the side in the next month.

[shanegrambeau]

Robbo and Paddy.....retiring them early won't free up any salary space.

....Armo is done, I've seen him a few times in the VFL and he doesn't look anywhere near the pace of the twos let alone AFL level.

Longer....let's hope.....he can become a quality ruckman of the AFL.

Mnnnn

Are they sellable? Seriously. Paddy at Sydney?

Armo, just curious. Slowed down or VFL pace picked up? Is it his running speed or his snap movements (ball collects, pushes, shoves, dodging etc.? I wondered whether he could have been a defensive forward replacement for Kent?

Longer.
What could Longer show us going forward that he hasn't already shown?

[fugazi]

By the way, the title of this thread is a deliberate nod to the iconic post-punk group, Joy Division's song of the same name, which is the most sombre song ever written!

Good song but I believe the clubhouse leader for sombre is still Radiohead...take your pick from-

How to Disappear Completely
Codex
Street Spirit
And about a dozen others
Floyd a close second

[darylcowie]

By the way, the title of this thread is a deliberate nod to the iconic post-punk group, Joy Division's song of the same name, which is the most sombre song ever written!

Good song but I believe the clubhouse leader for sombre is still Radiohead...take your pick from-

How to Disappear Completely
Codex
Street Spirit
And about a dozen others
Floyd a close second

While this is not a music forum, we seem to share similar tastes.

Granted RadioHead are right up there when it comes to sombre music and I would add Exit (Music for a film) from OK Computer to that list.

[ausfatcat]

Carlisle ? seriously he's a great player in his prime why would you consider getting rid of him? The others are already gone we all know that it's the normal footy cycle, and it's rnd 6 ffs , we are 4 and 2 people are talking of rebuilds wtf!!!!

[outside66]

Robbo and Paddy.....retiring them early won't free up any salary space.

....Armo is done, I've seen him a few times in the VFL and he doesn't look anywhere near the pace of the twos let alone AFL level.

Longer....let's hope.....he can become a quality ruckman of the AFL.

Mnnnn

Are they sellable? Seriously. Paddy at Sydney?

Armo, just curious. Slowed down or VFL pace picked up? Is it his running speed or his snap movements (ball collects, pushes, shoves, dodging etc.? I wondered whether he could have been a defensive forward replacement for Kent?

Longer.
What could Longer show us going forward that he hasn't already shown?

If Paddy can't play then he can't play anywhere. Hopefully he can but it doesn't look good unfortunately.

In the Box Hill game for example Armo got caught holding the ball 3 times in one quarter and appeared slow both in running speed and snap movements. In any case the pace of an AFL is incomparable to VFL.

Longer showed a few seasons back (2017 I believe) that he was more than capable of being a good ruckman. At 25 he has plenty of room to improve and deliver on his potential. If he does, awesome and if not, bugger. I reckon his game last week was his best for a long time.

[bigred]

I'm laughing a little.

Carlisle will be OK at some point this year unless he has a setback of some sort. He does most definitely OWE us. His next contract should be significantly reduced you would think or at least heavily performance based.

Paddy should be at the discretion of the medical department. I do not see this as a legal issue unless it becomes a poorly handled mess where somehow Patrick becomes unhappy with the outcome. Be it trade, retirement or whatever. Pure speculation at this point.

Roberton is similar to Patrick. However I think his outcome will definitely be decided by medical opinion.

Dave Armitage will retire or be traded in due course. Will most likely be a mutual decision. Thank you for your service.

Hannebery is fine and a calculated investment. At best he will play this year. Not a lot of choice in this matter, but why the hell would you offload him unless he is completely broken?

Brown is fine and you would probably be looking to extend if his current deal is up at the end of 2019.

Longer is a tough call. Personally I just do not rate him if compared to Rowan or even Lewis. I base that completely on onfield performance both in the AFL and VFL. I just don't rate him.

Our biggest issue at the moment is our backline depth. Covering Roberton, Carlisle and Geary is just not doable. Further injury to Clavarino and Austin have us at breaking point. I challenge any club in the comp to cover that level of specific backline injury rate.

If we had Roberton, Carlisle and Geary fit how much better would we be looking?

[Scollop]

Brown is playing the best games of his career right now.

He has been servicable for us and played some very good games but he played the best games of his career when he was at Collingwood. In the 2010 Grand Final he played a blinder against Nick Riewoldt. Brown was one of the best on ground for Collingwood that day.

In 2013 and 2015 he had his most consistent years and finished top ten in their B & F in those years.

[samoht]

Covering Roberton, Carlisle and Geary is just not doable. Further injury to Clavarino and Austin have us at breaking point.

I challenge any club in the comp to cover that level of specific backline injury rate.

If we had Roberton, Carlisle and Geary fit how much better would we be looking?

Indeed!
Spot on.
And we have the injury to Bruce now (he's obviously not right), plus Lonie was going okay - and I don't think Long is 100% either (it doesn't look like he's moving freely).
We are overachieving if anything.

[thejiggingsaint]

Brown and Carlisle (when fit) along with Geary and Jimmy Webster will give our defence the necessary steel for the later stages of this season and certainly for 2020. (IMHO)

[St Chris]

8 wins would be extremely disappointing from here, considering we've got:

Carlton x2
Gold Coast
Brisbane (@ Marvel)
North Melb
Melbourne
Bulldogs
Freo (@ Marvel)
Sydney

Even though the injuries are starting to bite, I'd still expect us to jag 2 more wins before the bye, then come home with a wet sail with a relatively easy fixture.

Carlisle, Lonie and Geary will come back at some stage in the 2nd half of the year, and you've potentially got King and Hannebery available as well.

We'll be ok.