How's that great deal looking now?

This unofficial St Kilda Saints fan forum is for people of all ages to chat Saints Footy and all posts must be respectful.

Moderators: Saintsational Administrators, Saintsational Moderators

User avatar
GregPackhamsHeadband
Club Player
Posts: 495
Joined: Wed 02 Aug 2017 8:25pm
Location: Goward's Gulch

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699166Post GregPackhamsHeadband »

santazzi wrote:"The sky is falling attitude from some St Kilda supporters this off season is mind boggling."

"This off season"? Beno88...in the 20 or so off seasons I have been on this site...my memory is that the sky has tumbled down in every single one of them...that is our way!
I hope you see the irony of your post, santazzi. A rather hyperbolic response to what I thought was a reasonable question. Never said it was a s*** deal that would end in disaster. My fear is that we might blow it. It may still work out brilliantly. What my concern is, that it doesn't look anywhere near as good as it did when it was made, or when the Hawks looked like finishing right near the bottom. Throw in the fact that JOM's stocks were raised late in the year and the deal starts to look a lot more even.


I think you're pretty tough, don't I?
User avatar
MC Gusto
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 5957
Joined: Tue 09 Mar 2004 8:29am
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 352 times

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699167Post MC Gusto »

For picks inside top 20 which ones has trout stuffed up?

Genuine question - am interested in opinions

Paddy?

Billings?

Gresh

Acres?

Dunstan?


Goddard?


#1 Ryder fan
User avatar
parkeysainter
SS Life Member
Posts: 2696
Joined: Thu 20 Jul 2017 2:59am
Location: Brighton Beach Mansion
Has thanked: 84 times
Been thanked: 177 times

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699172Post parkeysainter »

MC Gusto wrote:For picks inside top 20 which ones has trout stuffed up?

Genuine question - am interested in opinions

Paddy?

Billings?

Gresh

Acres?

Dunstan?


Goddard?
Paddy - Unlucky and injured (potential is clearly there)
Billings - Becoming A grade
Fresh - Will be A grade
Acres - Will be A to B grade
Dunstan - Will be A to B grade
Goddard - Unlucky and injured (potential is clearly there)

None have been stuffed up. Each players is exactly what we needed in each draft at the time based on our list and all are tracking well except Paddy and Goddard but that is through no fault of their own or the recruitment team. They have had rotten luck those two and the recruiters or anyone aren't to blame for that. The other players are probably where they should be given their age and time in the game. Only Gresham is ahead of the curve so to speak. He's a better player than anyone else in that list at the same point in their career which shows how talented he is.

If you look at some of the top 20 picks from the past 4-5 years, some aren't even on an AFL list anymore. All of our top 20 players remain and don't look like they're going anywhere. Thats a major win when you analyse each player. If Goddard and Paddy come good its a massive win.


Try to be a rainbow in someone's cloud

In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death, taxes and the St Kilda FC
User avatar
MC Gusto
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 5957
Joined: Tue 09 Mar 2004 8:29am
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 352 times

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699187Post MC Gusto »

I tend to agree parkey and i think a few of those were actually outside of top 20, more like top 25.

Therefore my query stands with the OP and his damnation of Trouts recruiting with top 20 picks....


#1 Ryder fan
User avatar
GregPackhamsHeadband
Club Player
Posts: 495
Joined: Wed 02 Aug 2017 8:25pm
Location: Goward's Gulch

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699194Post GregPackhamsHeadband »

Top 20 or 25. Not much difference. I've broken down Elshaug's record for the six years he's been in charge. I've broken it into the various categories, including the most controversial one, which is the jury is out section. I included players in this category, who for one reason or another have not established themselves as senior players, or haven't been able to break in and show us their tricks. These players have also been plagued by injury, and inconsistent form. Some are whipping boys, others get criticised heavily.

I find it interesting that some of them suddenly become potential stars when some posters try to mount an argument in their own favour. Truth is, we are where we are because those guys are too inconsistent, or not good enough. The majority of them will be gone within three years, if history is anything to go by. For example, McCartin, Goddard and Freeman are going to be stars, aren't they? The evidence shows they've played 31, mostly ordinary senior games between them in a combined 8 seasons at the club. Talk about getting your hopes up in the face of the available evidence. Some call McCartin a spud, others condemn Goddard as too slow, Acres as inconsistent and lacking focus and Freeman as an injury bust, with others describing him as a star who'll magically storm into the senior side and become the next Dangerfield. Others think that everyone on the list will make it. I, for one, hope they all make it and fulfill their potential. Of course, not all of them will. We need a dose of reality. We finished 11th and I think I've made a cogent argument as to why that is so.

Didn't or won't make it: Milera, Saad, Walsh, Minchington, Dunnell, Staley, Maister, Lee, Hickey, White, Wright, Saunders, Murdoch, Delaney, Curren, Lonie, O'Kearney, Pierce, Holmes and Coughlan.

Wins in trade. Roberton, Steele, Membrey, Bruce, Carlisle.

Jury out (not enough evidence one way or another) : McCartin, Goddard, White, Rice, Long, Battle, Phillips, McKenzie, Webster, Freeman, Longer, Marshall, Weller, Savage and Dunstan. I think we'll be lucky if five of these end up making it in the long term. I would add Brown and Stevens as I doubt they'll be in our best 22 in 2019.

Wins in draft: Newnes, Ross, Billings, Acres, Gresham. All on the way to being very good, regular senior players.

Rookie wins : Sinclair. Connellan and Joyce are unknown quantities, but show promise.

So out of 48 picks and trades over 6 years, we are left with 5 from the draft, who are decent players who are consistently performing to a good standard and are showing signs of taking the next step. We have far too many in the jury out category. Most of them have been on our list, or someone else's for a considerable amount of time. The rookie draft has delivered one and trades another 5. Whichever you way you want to argue the case, that is not a good record and an accurate reflection of our ladder position, especially when you consider the strength of our draft position over the past 6 years. No wonder I fear the position we're in now. Our trading for talent has been far better than our drafting, which, quite frankly, has been poor.


I think you're pretty tough, don't I?
takeaway
Club Player
Posts: 1730
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2011 5:54pm
Has thanked: 115 times
Been thanked: 368 times

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699195Post takeaway »

GregPackhamsHeadband wrote:
takeaway wrote:If its too early to tell, why raise it? On face value, it is one of the most one sided deals ever achieved. End of story.
Not yet it's not. What if we blow the two picks? Get a Kane Tenace and a Barry Brooks for example? The whole outcome depends on what we do with the pick 7 we acquired. Jury out on Long and Battle. The point I made was not that the deal was a mistake, but that we won't know it's real value until much later. If we end up missing out on a traded in gun, then our plan has backfired, or won't be fulfilled as intended. That's a partial fail already. I thought the idea was to get the extra first rounder to throw at a Kelly, Whitfield, Hopper type. Now it looks as though even the less preferred options of Stringer and Rockliff are off the table. Is all that so really so hard to understand? :roll:

I think the idea was to get 3 draft picks, a 1st round & 2 seconds, for 10 & 60 odd. The deal was too good to refuse, and IMO was really to improve our position, not necessarily to draft a Kelly type. Gave us a lot more options/bargaining power whether at the draft or trading.
If we had used pick 10 last year the jury would still be out on who we drafted. Relating the value of the deal to failing to trade in Kelly or the like is illogical in my view. All draft picks/trades are very important - we got extra through the one sided deal.


fugazi
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 4243
Joined: Thu 25 Mar 2004 2:47pm
Location: incarnate
Has thanked: 286 times
Been thanked: 694 times

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699197Post fugazi »

I'm happy to call Webster a win, and also when you consider what we gave up Longer, Savage, Stevens and Dunstan are wins...
They can't all be champions, but if they are good enough ti consistently get a game and contribute then you have to say the recruiter has at least a pass mark.


Nee!
takeaway
Club Player
Posts: 1730
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2011 5:54pm
Has thanked: 115 times
Been thanked: 368 times

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699198Post takeaway »

GregPackhamsHeadband wrote:Top 20 or 25. Not much difference. I've broken down Elshaug's record for the six years he's been in charge. I've broken it into the various categories, including the most controversial one, which is the jury is out section. I included players in this category, who for one reason or another have not established themselves as senior players, or haven't been able to break in and show us their tricks. These players have also been plagued by injury, and inconsistent form. Some are whipping boys, others get criticised heavily.

I find it interesting that some of them suddenly become potential stars when some posters try to mount an argument in their own favour. Truth is, we are where we are because those guys are too inconsistent, or not good enough. The majority of them will be gone within three years, if history is anything to go by. For example, McCartin, Goddard and Freeman are going to be stars, aren't they? The evidence shows they've played 31, mostly ordinary senior games between them in a combined 8 seasons at the club. Talk about getting your hopes up in the face of the available evidence. Some call McCartin a spud, others condemn Goddard as too slow, Acres as inconsistent and lacking focus and Freeman as an injury bust, with others describing him as a star who'll magically storm into the senior side and become the next Dangerfield. Others think that everyone on the list will make it. I, for one, hope they all make it and fulfill their potential. Of course, not all of them will. We need a dose of reality. We finished 11th and I think I've made a cogent argument as to why that is so.

Didn't or won't make it: Milera, Saad, Walsh, Minchington, Dunnell, Staley, Maister, Lee, Hickey, White, Wright, Saunders, Murdoch, Delaney, Curren, Lonie, O'Kearney, Pierce, Holmes and Coughlan.

Wins in trade. Roberton, Steele, Membrey, Bruce, Carlisle.

Jury out (not enough evidence one way or another) : McCartin, Goddard, White, Rice, Long, Battle, Phillips, McKenzie, Webster, Freeman, Longer, Marshall, Weller, Savage and Dunstan. I think we'll be lucky if five of these end up making it in the long term. I would add Brown and Stevens as I doubt they'll be in our best 22 in 2019.

Wins in draft: Newnes, Ross, Billings, Acres, Gresham. All on the way to being very good, regular senior players.

Rookie wins : Sinclair. Connellan and Joyce are unknown quantities, but show promise.

So out of 48 picks and trades over 6 years, we are left with 5 from the draft, who are decent players who are consistently performing to a good standard and are showing signs of taking the next step. We have far too many in the jury out category. Most of them have been on our list, or someone else's for a considerable amount of time. The rookie draft has delivered one and trades another 5. Whichever you way you want to argue the case, that is not a good record and an accurate reflection of our ladder position, especially when you consider the strength of our draft position over the past 6 years. No wonder I fear the position we're in now. Our trading for talent has been far better than our drafting, which, quite frankly, has been poor.
Not sure I agree with some of the grading there. Fior a start I would have Longer, Webster, Savage & Dunstan as wins & others very likely with more experience McCartin, White, McKenzie. Anyway, you would need to do a similar analysis of the other 17 teams, and I reckon we would be quite well placed in drafting/trading.


User avatar
GregPackhamsHeadband
Club Player
Posts: 495
Joined: Wed 02 Aug 2017 8:25pm
Location: Goward's Gulch

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699202Post GregPackhamsHeadband »

I wish I was wrong about this and you were right, but we are about where we should be, given how we've done over the past six years. We're nowhere near the better clubs in terms of strike rate, especially when you factor in our very advantageous drafting position in that time. Our rookie picks, traditionally a poor area has been pathetic compared to some others. In fact, when you factor in pick position, we've been poor. Well below average.

As for the players, Longer is still establishing himself and may yet be traded. Savage had a good last month, nothing more. Spent a lot of time at Sandy. Dunstan was dropped three times during the year and Webster is no certainty to be a regular next year. McCartin yes, pending injury, White, yes, pending an attitude adjustment. McKenzie is a no from me. Lacks composure and disposal is not good enough. I didn't write off the "jury's out" players, just preparing people for the reality that the majority won't make it, as it should be. We are several players short of being a premiership contender, so it makes sense we are carrying too many passengers. Don't speculate. Look at the facts as they are. I didn't say anyone of those wouldn't make it. It's just the evidence for them succeeding in the long term is not there yet. I wish it was.


I think you're pretty tough, don't I?
User avatar
Devilhead
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 7922
Joined: Mon 08 Mar 2004 11:56pm
Has thanked: 122 times
Been thanked: 1082 times

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699203Post Devilhead »

It seems GregPackhamsHeadband is starting to fray at the edges :shock:


The Devil makes work for idle hands!!!
thejiggingsaint
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 9354
Joined: Wed 03 Aug 2005 10:01pm
Has thanked: 625 times
Been thanked: 471 times

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699211Post thejiggingsaint »

fugazi wrote:I'm happy to call Webster a win, and also when you consider what we gave up Longer, Savage, Stevens and Dunstan are wins...
They can't all be champions, but if they are good enough ti consistently get a game and contribute then you have to say the recruiter has at least a pass mark.

Agree with you mate.


St Kilda forever 🔴⚪️⚫️ ( God help me)
User avatar
Waltzing St Kilda
SS Hall of Fame
Posts: 2069
Joined: Sun 14 Mar 2010 5:20am
Location: Melbourne
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 321 times

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699213Post Waltzing St Kilda »

Seems like there are a lot of true believers here. Bristle at the very suggestion that all is not rosy.
Everything is going to plan. All will work out well. Those who question the faith are infidels.

Fact is we've got the blandest list (and coaching staff) in a lifetime. Membership and attendance numbers
are bound to be pitiful in 2018 (not least because we'll have, I'd suggest, very few marquee games).

There's a possibility that Richo will pull a rabbit out of a hat and we'll soar up the ladder Richmond-like ...
but at the moment, applying cold-hearted logic, it's not looking likely. Another 9-13 finish in the offing,
if not worse. And after 4-5 years of rebuilding, that's an appalling state of affairs.


User avatar
jimmy_slats
Club Player
Posts: 433
Joined: Mon 05 Nov 2007 10:54am

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699222Post jimmy_slats »

just remember a few things.. dogs sold there contracted captain and picked up the number one pick after his first year in football, gibbs almost went to adelade, josh schlacking just signed a 2-year deal and is on the verge of a trade! anything can happen just because we missed some doesn't mean there isn't some left field surprise around the corner and with what we have cash and picks wise then if any club can do it it will be us.


'WALK THIS WAY!!!!!'
User avatar
GregPackhamsHeadband
Club Player
Posts: 495
Joined: Wed 02 Aug 2017 8:25pm
Location: Goward's Gulch

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699227Post GregPackhamsHeadband »

Devilhead wrote:It seems GregPackhamsHeadband is starting to fray at the edges :shock:
Fraying? More like torn. I'm just trying to explore the reasons for our poor performances in big games and the last third of the season. A long time sainter whose opinion I respect told me we're just not good enough yet. Looking at the list I compiled, I think he might be right. Not that it can't be fixed, but at the moment some are basing their optimism on hope rather than reality. If Elshaug's record doesn't give you pause for thought, then you might need to reassess your standards.


I think you're pretty tough, don't I?
User avatar
SaintPav
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 18163
Joined: Wed 16 Jun 2010 9:24pm
Location: Alma Road
Has thanked: 1457 times
Been thanked: 1829 times

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699233Post SaintPav »

The jury will definitely be in on Trout after this draft, if it's not already. Problem is that it might take a few years to play out and we don't have that long.


Holder of unacceptable views and other thought crimes.
User avatar
Impatient Sainter
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 4082
Joined: Tue 05 Apr 2016 3:30pm
Has thanked: 2620 times
Been thanked: 1076 times

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699234Post Impatient Sainter »

The OP has it correct. Last years selection 10 Florent would be in the top 5 this year. Him plus SPP, Bolton and others would be top 10. So the Saints have to turn the 1st 2 x rounders into something special to win on the Hawthorn trade.


Goose is king
SS Hall of Fame
Posts: 2292
Joined: Sun 27 Jan 2008 9:05am
Has thanked: 767 times
Been thanked: 207 times

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699236Post Goose is king »

Long and Battle both debuted in their first season. Tell me how they are failed picks. I think both will play 100+ games. Long needs Gresham and Billings to spend more time in the midfield and he needs to be a fierce tackling small forward, no Lonie will help too. This deal was a massive win and has given us a real chance to load up on talent


Goose is king
SS Hall of Fame
Posts: 2292
Joined: Sun 27 Jan 2008 9:05am
Has thanked: 767 times
Been thanked: 207 times

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699237Post Goose is king »

Long and Battle both debuted in their first season. Tell me how they are failed picks. I think both will play 100+ games. Long needs Gresham and Billings to spend more time in the midfield and he needs to be a fierce tackling small forward, no Lonie will help too. This deal was a massive win and has given us a real chance to load up on talent


User avatar
Devilhead
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 7922
Joined: Mon 08 Mar 2004 11:56pm
Has thanked: 122 times
Been thanked: 1082 times

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699238Post Devilhead »

SaintPav wrote:The jury will definitely be in on Trout after this draft, if it's not already. Problem is that it might take a few years to play out and we don't have that long.
What do you mean we don't have that long?

Are we folding as a club?

Have a look at the age of our core youngsters - even in 4 years time they will be only 27 or younger

Our window was always going to be from 2018 onwards - probably up to 2024 - making the finals this year would have been a surprise bonus and with a bit of luck we would have made it

An easier draw next year and with natural improvement from our youngsters should see us playing finals

Supporters pulling their hair out about this year really have no understanding regarding the age profile of our list


The Devil makes work for idle hands!!!
User avatar
SaintPav
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 18163
Joined: Wed 16 Jun 2010 9:24pm
Location: Alma Road
Has thanked: 1457 times
Been thanked: 1829 times

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699241Post SaintPav »

Devilhead wrote:
SaintPav wrote:The jury will definitely be in on Trout after this draft, if it's not already. Problem is that it might take a few years to play out and we don't have that long.
What do you mean we don't have that long?

Are we folding as a club?

Have a look at the age of our core youngsters - even in 4 years time they will be only 27 or younger

Our window was always going to be from 2018 onwards - probably up to 2024 - making the finals this year would have been a surprise bonus and with a bit of luck we would have made it

An easier draw next year and with natural improvement from our youngsters should see us playing finals

Supporters pulling their hair out about this year really have no understanding regarding the age profile of our list
I understand the age profile and that we are not folding as a club, yet.

What I mean was that if Trout is no good and it takes a while to play out, he will be in charge for a few more drafts yet and he could do more damage before club wakes up and gets someone good.


Holder of unacceptable views and other thought crimes.
User avatar
Dave McNamara
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 5709
Joined: Wed 21 Sep 2011 2:44pm
Location: Slotting another one from 94.5m out. Opposition flood? Bring it on...! Keep the faith Saintas!
Has thanked: 80 times
Been thanked: 74 times

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699246Post Dave McNamara »

Devilhead wrote:It seems GregPackhamsHeadband is starting to fray at the edges :shock:
So, should he be afraid? :wink:


It's Dave, man. Will you open up? I got the stuff with me! -------Who?
Dave, man. Open up ------------------------------------------ -----Dave???
Yeah, Dave. ---------------------------------------------------------Dave's not here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QOiG1hAr ... detailpage
skeptic wrote: Tue 30 Jan 2024 8:07pmCongrats to Dave McNamara - hereby dubbed the KNOWINGEST KNOW IT ALL of Saintsational
:mrgreen:
MickThomas
Club Player
Posts: 631
Joined: Mon 21 Aug 2017 1:23am
Location: Doncaster, Victoria
Has thanked: 77 times
Been thanked: 33 times

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699253Post MickThomas »

fugazi wrote:I'm happy to call Webster a win, and also when you consider what we gave up Longer, Savage, Stevens and Dunstan are wins...
They can't all be champions, but if they are good enough ti consistently get a game and contribute then you have to say the recruiter has at least a pass mark.
Longer- see Hickey...one decent year may not be enough to assess true potential.
Same for Sav, Stevens, Dunny, who have shown glimpses but we have to see
how consistent they can be.
So...jury still out.
Maybe, maybe not- just don't know yet.


2020 was an aberration, when we travelled twice to Adelaide and won both, beat Tigers early, beat our bogey Swans. 2021 we've returned to our old ways. Damn
User avatar
Devilhead
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 7922
Joined: Mon 08 Mar 2004 11:56pm
Has thanked: 122 times
Been thanked: 1082 times

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699255Post Devilhead »

Dave McNamara wrote:
Devilhead wrote:It seems GregPackhamsHeadband is starting to fray at the edges :shock:
So, should he be afraid? :wink:
Have you ever had sweat in your eye?

It stings!! :evil:


The Devil makes work for idle hands!!!
User avatar
skeptic
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 16407
Joined: Wed 10 Mar 2004 7:10pm
Has thanked: 3394 times
Been thanked: 2655 times

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699268Post skeptic »

I just don't get the logic of a deal only being a success if recruit the right players...

In 2000, Carlton trade Aaron Hamil for pick 4 (+ Sam Cranage I believe). That was a reasonable trade for them.
How does the fact that they went on to recruit Luke Livingston ahead of Shaun Burgoyne and Scott Thompson make the deal bad.

It's like saying that if a forward takes a big speccy and sprays the shot on goal, that the mark is then not as good


User avatar
GregPackhamsHeadband
Club Player
Posts: 495
Joined: Wed 02 Aug 2017 8:25pm
Location: Goward's Gulch

Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Post: # 1699288Post GregPackhamsHeadband »

If I buy a car for an absolute bargain price, but after a few kilometres it breaks down and needs repairs costing more than I paid for it, does that mean the original deal was still a bargain, or is it now a terrible deal because of the ultimate outcome ? The end result determines the value of the deal and whether or not it was worth doing.


I think you're pretty tough, don't I?
Post Reply