Improve accuracy, improve season

This unofficial St Kilda Saints fan forum is for people of all ages to chat Saints Footy and all posts must be respectful.

Moderators: Saintsational Administrators, Saintsational Moderators

Post Reply
User avatar
shrodes
SS Life Member
Posts: 2594
Joined: Tue 12 Aug 2014 2:34pm
Location: Melbourne
Has thanked: 662 times
Been thanked: 326 times

Improve accuracy, improve season

Post: # 1671144Post shrodes »

Interesting article today about the Saints in front of goal (and how well we defend)

http://figuringfooty.com/2017/05/18/are ... ing-giant/
The one thing that is letting them down is their splotchy conversion from anywhere further than about 30m out. If they had kicked at AFL average, they would have kicked an extra 44 points over the 8 matches.
St Kilda have defended their "close in, directly in front" corridor well so far. However, their opponents have converted at a much better rate than average given their opportunities. Opposition sides have kicked 42 points more than the average side would be expected to given the types of shot taken and the locations these shots have been taken from. Often in this case you could make the argument that not enough pressure is being put on the goalkicker, leading them to kick straighter than they otherwise would. This breaks down when you consider opposition forwards are considerably outperforming their expectation from set-shots as well as snaps and other open-play shots. Given time this will change.


User avatar
spiral3
Club Player
Posts: 187
Joined: Wed 14 Sep 2011 7:37pm
Location: Melbourne
Has thanked: 16 times
Been thanked: 89 times

Re: Improve accuracy, improve season

Post: # 1671207Post spiral3 »

what an interesting site, thanks for the link!


User avatar
dals_da_bomb
Club Player
Posts: 910
Joined: Sun 03 Aug 2008 7:49pm

Re: Improve accuracy, improve season

Post: # 1671213Post dals_da_bomb »

I saw this last night on FB. Loved it.
Well written and took me all the way to the end.


The Tiger and the Lion may be more powerful, but the Wolf does not perform in the circus.
User avatar
meher baba
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 6873
Joined: Mon 14 Aug 2006 6:49am
Location: Tasmania
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 405 times

Re: Improve accuracy, improve season

Post: # 1671218Post meher baba »

I'm not sure about the theory that we don't put enough pressure on goalkickers. I've seen no evidence of this.

I suspect that the high conversion rate of chances by our opponents, particularly in the first few rounds, was mainly a consequence of our inaccuracy in front of goal. It's always seemed to me that, when a team dominates its opponent in general play, but fails to make a major impression on the scoreboard, their opponents are somehow able to achieve an almost superhuman level of accuracy with their limited chances. I'm not quite sure why this is: possibly the sight of your opponents continually missing gimme shots at goal is a big confidence-booster.


"It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into."
- Jonathan Swift
User avatar
Sainter_Dad
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 5856
Joined: Thu 05 Jun 2008 1:04pm
Has thanked: 213 times
Been thanked: 995 times

Re: Improve accuracy, improve season

Post: # 1671233Post Sainter_Dad »

Maybe it is a result of the total 'frontal' pressure that we put, which enables us to repeatedly have shots, and if we do not score goals, then eventually the opposition gets it out, and it scoots down the other end for a 'less pressurised' shot on goal. If we do goal, then both teams get a chance to reset and we are there to apply the pressure should they get the clearance.

TLDR; Kick a goal, reset. Kick a point, coast to coast.


“Youth ages, immaturity is outgrown, ignorance can be educated, and drunkenness sobered, but stupid lasts forever.”

― Aristophanes

If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
Beno88
SS Hall of Fame
Posts: 2209
Joined: Tue 10 Jul 2007 11:14am
Location: Bentleigh East
Has thanked: 265 times
Been thanked: 525 times

Re: Improve accuracy, improve season

Post: # 1671234Post Beno88 »

I have one theory on this season, if we kick 13 goals, we lose. If we don't, we win. 100% record so far.


User avatar
Sainter_Dad
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 5856
Joined: Thu 05 Jun 2008 1:04pm
Has thanked: 213 times
Been thanked: 995 times

Re: Improve accuracy, improve season

Post: # 1671236Post Sainter_Dad »

Beno88 wrote:I have one theory on this season, if we kick 13 goals, we lose. If we don't, we win. 100% record so far.
Holy Crap - you are right!!!! 13 is our unlucky number in 2017 so far this year!

COLL v STK 9 15 Win
STK v CARL 12 13 Win

STK v GEEL 13 10 Loss
STK v MELB 13 12 Loss
WCE v STK 13 19 Loss

STK v BL 14 23 Win
STK v GWS 16 12 Win
HAW v STK 19 16 Win


So what if we kick 12b goals????


“Youth ages, immaturity is outgrown, ignorance can be educated, and drunkenness sobered, but stupid lasts forever.”

― Aristophanes

If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
User avatar
perfectionist
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 8913
Joined: Mon 30 Jul 2007 3:06pm
Has thanked: 57 times
Been thanked: 338 times

Re: Improve accuracy, improve season

Post: # 1671246Post perfectionist »

Sainter_Dad wrote:So what if we kick 12b goals????
Usually 12A around where I live.


User avatar
Dave McNamara
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 5709
Joined: Wed 21 Sep 2011 2:44pm
Location: Slotting another one from 94.5m out. Opposition flood? Bring it on...! Keep the faith Saintas!
Has thanked: 80 times
Been thanked: 74 times

Re: Improve accuracy, improve season

Post: # 1671270Post Dave McNamara »

Very interesting link. Thank you Shrodes . :)

After eight rounds:
- We've outscored our collective opposition by 6 goals 31 behinds(!) That's close enough to five extra scoring shots per game.
- We're ahead in overall inside 50's, and have 'won' the inside 50's in nearly every game.
- Our midfield is getting on top, and winning the clearances, especially of late.


Clearly the foundations are firmly in place. Now..., just imagine adding to this...
- Cleaner finishing (both re inside 50 delivery, and when kicking on goal).
- A couple of (or quite possibly three) real class pick-ups through FA and trading during this upcoming draft period.


We 're now at the stage of our rebuild where we can steal a flag this year.
At this year's drafting/trading period, make the most of the opportunities we've crafted - and we'll be winning, not just hoping to steal, flags.

Exciting times Saintas!


It's Dave, man. Will you open up? I got the stuff with me! -------Who?
Dave, man. Open up ------------------------------------------ -----Dave???
Yeah, Dave. ---------------------------------------------------------Dave's not here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QOiG1hAr ... detailpage
skeptic wrote: Tue 30 Jan 2024 8:07pmCongrats to Dave McNamara - hereby dubbed the KNOWINGEST KNOW IT ALL of Saintsational
:mrgreen:
User avatar
shrodes
SS Life Member
Posts: 2594
Joined: Tue 12 Aug 2014 2:34pm
Location: Melbourne
Has thanked: 662 times
Been thanked: 326 times

Re: Improve accuracy, improve season

Post: # 1671280Post shrodes »

Sainter_Dad wrote:Maybe it is a result of the total 'frontal' pressure that we put, which enables us to repeatedly have shots, and if we do not score goals, then eventually the opposition gets it out, and it scoots down the other end for a 'less pressurised' shot on goal. If we do goal, then both teams get a chance to reset and we are there to apply the pressure should they get the clearance.

TLDR; Kick a goal, reset. Kick a point, coast to coast.
I had a similar thought actually. Because of how aggressive and quick our game is, when we turn it over it generally leads to pretty easy goals for the opposition as we have too many streaming towards goal.

Not sure I agree about us kicking behinds leading to that though. I would imagine we are one of the best sides at locking it in our forward line from opposition kick ins (I don't have stats to back that up however).


User avatar
Sainter_Dad
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 5856
Joined: Thu 05 Jun 2008 1:04pm
Has thanked: 213 times
Been thanked: 995 times

Re: Improve accuracy, improve season

Post: # 1671310Post Sainter_Dad »

shrodes wrote:
Sainter_Dad wrote:Maybe it is a result of the total 'frontal' pressure that we put, which enables us to repeatedly have shots, and if we do not score goals, then eventually the opposition gets it out, and it scoots down the other end for a 'less pressurised' shot on goal. If we do goal, then both teams get a chance to reset and we are there to apply the pressure should they get the clearance.

TLDR; Kick a goal, reset. Kick a point, coast to coast.
I had a similar thought actually. Because of how aggressive and quick our game is, when we turn it over it generally leads to pretty easy goals for the opposition as we have too many streaming towards goal.

Not sure I agree about us kicking behinds leading to that though. I would imagine we are one of the best sides at locking it in our forward line from opposition kick ins (I don't have stats to back that up however).
It is not the kicking of points that leads to us being opened up - but the fact that if we kick a succession of them we tend to drift in to keep it locked in thereby allowing our 'soft underbelly' to be exposed.
Kind of like we 'Rope a Dope' ourselves. If we kick goals, we all go back to our positions and start again.


“Youth ages, immaturity is outgrown, ignorance can be educated, and drunkenness sobered, but stupid lasts forever.”

― Aristophanes

If you have a Bee in your Bonnet - I can assist you with that - but it WILL involve some smacking upside the head!
Post Reply