Realistically how far can we now go???

[Winmar7Fan]

How much does history and stats really mean as we are definitely not able to make the top four apart from the faith of just being a chance if we're there?

The 64 dollar question is truly what chance do we now have from finishing anywhere in the bottom four of the eight of going all the way? History shows it’s not able to be done and you need to finish in the top four to have any hope of going all the way.

Also being without two of our best players in Gwilt and Hayes only makes the mountain more difficult come September.

But can circumstances make a difference from past results in the finals like a few lucky Injuries or suspensions from opposition teams at the right time? Added to maybe the fact that if we regain our full form we will be in the unusual position of a true top four team finishing below where we should have and not really the 5th, 6th, 7th or 8th best team because of our dismall late start?

What realistic chance do we have of defying the odds and even making the Grand Final from 5th to 8th position?

[plugger66]

I honestly think we will finsh 6th which means a home final against hopefully Sydney or Freo. A win there in which we would be favourites get us against the Hawks IMO. That will be very hard but if we win that then we play the Pies. Unless we beat them or come awfully close in 3 weeks that will be the end of our run so prelim at best for me. That would be a great result considering our start to year and a great springboard to next year.

[bigcarl]

Unless we beat them or come awfully close in 3 weeks that will be the end of our run so prelim at best for me.

We can beat them at Etihad.

Nearly beat them on their own dunghill (which they leave about four times a season) less than a year ago.

[InkerSaint]

Slim to none, you couldn't say impossible because in theory the possibility is there, but a few things would need to go our way, and the right things at the right time.

Just for starters, to get sixth we probably need to win two of three against Collingwood, Sydney away, and Carlton, and win the rest - that alone is a big ask. Fail that, and more likely than not we will play an elimination final either at Paterson's or the SCG.

That in itself is the minimum of things that would need to go our way to have any realistic chance of advancing. The likely balance of probabilities would see us up against Carlton or Hawthorn in a semi should we win the first final.

[SainterK]

I like that there might be a bit of reckless about the boys come September, no second chances, no burden of expectation this time.

It's taken a lot of strength of character to turn it around like they have.

Says a lot about their resolve.

Heard the Geelong captain a couple of months back say that they wouldn't like to meet St Kilda in the finals, we didn't even look like it then.

[bigcarl]

I like that there might be a bit of reckless about the boys come September, no second chances, no burden of expectation this time.

Reckless is good.

[gringo]

I have said all year that we were not out of it while still alive. Even Collingwood wouldn't want us hanging around in finals. On SEN Robbo was saying that earlier in the year he interviewed a captain of a top club and asked which team he wouldn't want to meet in the finals and he said the Saints. Robbo said they had a laugh because we didn't look a threat but now he could see a bit of logic in it. Geelong couldn't lose against the Hawks, Adelaide had no right to 2 premierships, Sydney shouldn't have beat us in the prelims. History is not a rule it is just a guide. This year is unlike any other because of the unbalanced draw, byes, new teams and a bulk of middle tier teams. If any year could see a winner from the bottom half of the 8 it is this one. With a different drawer and a couple of close ones like Geelong and Carlton going our way, we would be about where we were last year.

[SaintPav]

I honestly think we will finsh 6th which means a home final against hopefully Sydney or Freo. A win there in which we would be favourites get us against the Hawks IMO. That will be very hard but if we win that then we play the Pies. Unless we beat them or come awfully close in 3 weeks that will be the end of our run so prelim at best for me. That would be a great result considering our start to year and a great springboard to next year.

I don't mean to sound wierd but I would rather lose a prelim (this year) than make the GF and lose that. 6th and winning one final would be a vg result considering all the sh!t that has happened this year.

[Darren]

I reckon we'll finish 6th and end up losing in the Semi finals.

[joffaboy]

I don't mean to sound wierd but I would rather lose a prelim (this year) than make the GF and lose that. 6th and winning one final would be a vg result considering all the sh!t that has happened this year.

Nothing weird about that.

Dont know if I can stomach 4 GF's in three years with no positive result. It would be just about the end of me.

[Dr Spaceman]

I don't mean to sound wierd but I would rather lose a prelim (this year) than make the GF and lose that. 6th and winning one final would be a vg result considering all the sh!t that has happened this year.

Nothing weird about that.

Dont know if I can stomach 4 GF's in three years with no positive result. It would be just about the end of me.

I know exactly what your saying joff.

However we can never hope to win one unless we're prepared to lose another one.

The more times we get there and fall short the harder it is to keep going. But the more times we get there the more chance we'll finally win number 2.

So as much as it hurts to think we could get through this year only to lose to the Pies again, I'll take any chance we get to play on the big day.

[Unforgiven]

I reckon a prelim final at best.

I'd fancy my chances against all teams bar the Pies. I dont think we could beat collingwood, and I would also believe West Coast at Subiaco to be very tough.

I'd fancy my chances against the Hawks and Cats, even though they are very good teams, I still think we would be a realistic shot at beating either team.

Fremantle, Carlton, Sydney I think are quite beatable.

I just don't think we can win a grand final without Hayes and Gwilt. Come finals this is where we will feel the looses of these players the most.

[ralphsmith]

Premiership.

Wills of titanium to not throw in the towel after the endless bulls*** of preseason 2011.

Obviously much needs to go right. As was mentioned, injuries, suspensions to other teams etc.

The cosmic balet ..goes on.

Stay the course and lets see what happens, if we make the finals i hope the club sees it as a great chance to shove the fist of defiance up the universes ass.

Good comment on recklessness in finals. Not much to lose really? If we make it, i fully expect our players to be keen for a deathyly every week of the finals.

[saintspremiers]

If we win all our remaining H&A games we should make the GF.

Realistically I reckon at best it's the Prelims.

I'd be very happy with that.

[saintspremiers]

If we win all our remaining H&A games we should make the GF.

Realistically I reckon at best it's the Prelims.

I'd be very happy with that.

[Cairnsman]

Seaford is probably the end of the line. But seriously this year is year one of the rebuild. There is massive daylight between the Pies and their potential challenger which at this stage is the Cats and unfortunately for them they will probably lose by the same margin they lost to the Pies in last years prelim if they meet again in this years finals.

It is great that we are winning and it will be great if we get a final or two for the young guys to experience but as I've been saying since about round 4, bring on 2012. Next year will really tell us where we are at.

[wolfpup]

with the lead up for the rest of the season we needed:

Hawks
West Coast
Carlton

to lose at least 2 games each

saints to win every game

and we had a great shot at a double chance (3rd or 4th)

although we needed essendon, doggies, nth mebourne and melbourne to fire up and have some upset wins (ie against Carlton, Hawks, West Coast, freo, sydney)

there was potential for the saints last game against the blues being a fight for 4th

anyways, it looks like the bombers, doggies, melbourne have dropped off (north melbourne still look like they might do some damage) so yep, i think we should finish around 6th at best

the close losses against the cats and blues (as well as the draw against the tigers), going to cost us dearly

we have a game in hand against most teams, although the extra game we have IS against collingwood...

[borderbarry]

I expect us to finish the Home and Away matches in 5th or 6th spot, and not have to worry about an away final. Once there we can go all the way.
My biggest concern is us running out of fit players.

[GoTheTorp]

At this stage realistically we can finish 4th 5th or 6th if all the ducks line up.

We are only just hanging onto 8th spot, i wouldnt bet the house on us just yet.

[The Fireman]

not as far as we should have the last few years.

[desertsaint]

be very happy to meet the blues or hawks in the semi.
wouls hope we meet the pies in the prelim as if we beat them the boys would head to the G brimming with confidence. whereas if we beat geelong we'd be looking ahead with a lot less belief.
if we get past the first week i reckon we'll get at least to the prelim unless our first final is in wa.

[plugger66]

with the lead up for the rest of the season we needed:

Hawks
West Coast
Carlton

to lose at least 2 games each

saints to win every game

and we had a great shot at a double chance (3rd or 4th)

although we needed essendon, doggies, nth mebourne and melbourne to fire up and have some upset wins (ie against Carlton, Hawks, West Coast, freo, sydney)

there was potential for the saints last game against the blues being a fight for 4th

anyways, it looks like the bombers, doggies, melbourne have dropped off (north melbourne still look like they might do some damage) so yep, i think we should finish around 6th at best

the close losses against the cats and blues (as well as the draw against the tigers), going to cost us dearly

we have a game in hand against most teams, although the extra game we have IS against collingwood...

Even if we won every game which we will not we aint getting a double chance. We cannot win the flag but if we do it will be from 6th at best.

[BakesFan]

Cadel Evans drew on all his previous disappointments to win the Tour de France.......he was focused, ferocious and determined to give his all.

I imagine we'll see similarities with The Saints cutting loose in The Finals this year.....

I think we'll see a ferocity from our boys that will simply amaze us.... and absolutely shock their opponents.

[Stephen Theodore]

I reckon a prelim final at best.

I'd fancy my chances against all teams bar the Pies. I dont think we could beat collingwood, and I would also believe West Coast at Subiaco to be very tough.

I'd fancy my chances against the Hawks and Cats, even though they are very good teams, I still think we would be a realistic shot at beating either team.

Fremantle, Carlton, Sydney I think are quite beatable.

I just don't think we can win a grand final without Hayes and Gwilt. Come finals this is where we will feel the looses of these players the most.

Good summary, and I agree, with the exception of Gwilt, who I think we can cover okay.

Given the start, I'd take it, even though i'll be devestated. Have made excuses to attend every G.F. since 2002, so it'll be a funny feeling if I dont go this year, which I wont, if Saints arent in it.

[matrix]

i think we'll finish 6th and be playing the swans in melb
then we'll get the hawks
we'll either lose that or lose to collingwood the following week as they head towards their second flag in a row

or

we wont lose another game for the year