Rebuild Boom or Bust

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Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby Zed » Mon 08 Jan 2018 4:04pm

Not long to wait now until we find out if the current rebuild will be a boom or a bust.

IMHO. most players moving into their 5th year of footy are approaching their maximum potential with not a lot of further improvement from years 6 onwards.

That means players from the 2013 draft are about to hit their peak form (Billings, Dunstan, Acres & Freeman). Im confident that JB will take his game to the next level and elevate himself into the AA squad. Whilst I dont think Dunstan will rise to the same heights as JB, his last 6 games have shown that he can be a strong contributor. Similarly Acres showed improvement in running both ways and he now also looms as a genuine threat when resting up forward with his strong overhead marking and body work.

But its the 2014 draft where we have invested a lot of the rebuild into: Paddy, Goddard, McKenzie, Lonie, Jack Sinclair, Logan Austin and Jack Steele. Coming into their 4th years, the majority of this group needs to perform strongly this year to put us in good shape to make a play for the top 4 in 2019. Steele & Sinclair have already shown good form - and now we need at least 3 more of this group to lift their games to the next level. We desperately need Paddy to stay on the park so that he, Membrey and Bruce can keep the oppo guessing as to who our primary target is. In defence, we need at least one of Goddard or Austin to be good enough to push Nathan Brown out of the team by seasons end. Im struggling to see either Lonie or McKenzie holding down a regular spot. Lonie just seems to have gone backward after a very promising debut year. He obviously knows how to get to the right spots and find the ball but its what he does with it that has gone backwards. Add to this his tackling is as ineffective as it was when he was a skinny runt in his first year.Will be interesting to see if he both and Dan McKenzie can get it right.
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby magnifisaint » Tue 09 Jan 2018 10:14am

This will be a big year for the Saints, absolutely huge and why not!
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby mad saint guy » Tue 09 Jan 2018 2:32pm

I'm not convinced that 2018 is a make or break year. A sizable chunk of our list is either beginning to approach their peak or is still a few years off it. I expect that we will see gradual improvement from our young players for some time yet which will culminate in the team being ripe for a shot at a flag starting in 2020 IF we manage to land a couple of elite talents from elsewhere. We have a lot of solid citizens who should be quality players for 200 games but we lack the dominant talent that can take a final by the scruff of the neck and find a way to win when no one else can.
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby Gershwin » Tue 09 Jan 2018 2:39pm

Good post Zed.
Significant bad luck for Paddy and Hugh sees 2018 as being their year to make an impact. Freeman also. A lot of work has been put into making this the year for us to make a big impact.
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby bigcarl » Tue 09 Jan 2018 8:31pm

The year of Gresham, Billings and Acres.

They've got to get more midfield time.
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby saintspremiers » Wed 10 Jan 2018 7:20am

When all is said and done, we simply HAVE to make the eight this year.

We won’t win the flag - as MSG said 2020 is our year for that, but the springboard needs to be finals this year,
or the 2020 dream will probably be dead.
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby asiu » Wed 10 Jan 2018 12:06pm

mad saint guy wrote:I'm not convinced that 2018 is a make or break year. A sizable chunk of our list is either beginning to approach their peak or is still a few years off it.


thats a ditto from me

though
i do feel that we shall suprise ourselves in 18
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby parkeysainter » Wed 10 Jan 2018 12:37pm

The Saints should be and will be wanting to play finals in 2018. But its not a make or break year regarding the rebuild.

I disagree and think players hit their peak at 25-28 (look back at the 09-10 GF years) so guys like Billings, Acres, Paddy etc. have a few years to go.

If we miss finals then so be it. You just reload again the year after.
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby DJ Higgins » Wed 10 Jan 2018 1:05pm

As long as I see some genuine improvement this year I will be happy. But with only Jack Steven as an outside mid at present I think we will struggle again.

I expect a huge year from Skunk with Roo no longer there. I think he will get more of the ball now and kick a lot more goals as he is one of the few that can already kick straight.
I don't expect much from McKenzie, Meatball & Lonie (not AFL quality) , Austin (came to us cheaply for a reason), Paddy or Goddard (haven't shown enough for the hype they get) Pierce (wont play seniors), Armo & Freeman (body issues will let them down, shame). So I can only be pleasantly surprised if any of these guys become really good this year.

I am expecting some nice surprises to come from other players but I am excluding first year players as it is unfair to expect too much from kids.
People should stop dissing Brown he is doing his job well and he still has some years left in him. He just needs to be matched up better. I.e. he plays on monsters and if the opposition goes with small forwards he doesn't play. I like our defense at present and it will get better this year
I read Ben Long came to us after playing in a NT comp after vfl and he was exhausted for part of last season. Let's see how we goes after a break and a preseason
Battle has now finished y12 and can concentrate fully on Afl so he should start getting games in the second half of the season and he can kick straight
Jack Sinclair to settle into being a small forward and get better and start hurting the opposition
my biggest hope is that Ray Connellan gets a lot better quickly. I have seen him play for Sandy and that kid has some serious wheels. Gawd we could use him on the the outside
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby saynta » Wed 10 Jan 2018 3:17pm

DJ Higgins wrote:As long as I see some genuine improvement this year I will be happy. But with only Jack Steven as an outside mid at present I think we will struggle again.

I expect a huge year from Skunk with Roo no longer there. I think he will get more of the ball now and kick a lot more goals as he is one of the few that can already kick straight.
I don't expect much from McKenzie, Meatball & Lonie (not AFL quality) , Austin (came to us cheaply for a reason), Paddy or Goddard (haven't shown enough for the hype they get) Pierce (wont play seniors), Armo & Freeman (body issues will let them down, shame). So I can only be pleasantly surprised if any of these guys become really good this year.

I am expecting some nice surprises to come from other players but I am excluding first year players as it is unfair to expect too much from kids.
People should stop dissing Brown he is doing his job well and he still has some years left in him. He just needs to be matched up better. I.e. he plays on monsters and if the opposition goes with small forwards he doesn't play. I like our defense at present and it will get better this year
I read Ben Long came to us after playing in a NT comp after vfl and he was exhausted for part of last season. Let's see how we goes after a break and a preseason
Battle has now finished y12 and can concentrate fully on Afl so he should start getting games in the second half of the season and he can kick straight
Jack Sinclair to settle into being a small forward and get better and start hurting the opposition
my biggest hope is that Ray Connellan gets a lot better quickly. I have seen him play for Sandy and that kid has some serious wheels. Gawd we could use him on the the outside


Doom and gloom. :roll:Well, apart from one or two positives.
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby samoht » Wed 10 Jan 2018 4:16pm

Anything can happen - if all the ducks line up, we could even win the damn thing.
But I feel we still don't have enough midfield hurt factor - unless Gresham and Acres somehow go to the next level.
Clavarino I think will develop into a very good player - and I can't see why Hunter Clark and Coffield can't get games on the wing - start on the outside, while their bodies develop.
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby DJ Higgins » Wed 10 Jan 2018 4:39pm

saynta wrote:
DJ Higgins wrote:


Doom and gloom. :roll:Well, apart from one or two positives.


I thought it was pretty balanced with heaps of positives that offset the negatives :?:

Skunk to get better and be our best goal kicker again and by a long way. that is positive
I like Brown and he is doing exactly what we need from him which is great. Remember when we didn't have a big bodied defender and how we got man handled. That is another positive
I like our defense as a whole and it will get better. there is another one
Ben Long will get a proper run into the season this year. positive
Battle will now be full time afl and start getting games. And he is a great shot by all most accounts +1
Sinclair to start hurting the opposition on the scoreboard. huge positive
and even a positive comment about a a rookie.

You are a tough marker :wink: I admit there are more cons than pros but they are all have merit plus I would love to be proven wrong.
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby Drake Huggins » Wed 10 Jan 2018 5:28pm

With the competition as even as it is, anything can happen, as the last two years have shown. As always, injuries, the way the draw pans out and good old-fashioned luck will play their part. I'm hopeful we'll improve and maybe sneak into the eight. By the end of the year we'll know whether we've made significant progress, or whether we're in for more list building. Acres, Gresham, Ross, Sinclair and Billings give me cause for optimism. Then there is the big one. Patrick McCartin. Crucial that he begins to fire, especially with Roo gone.
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby fugazi » Wed 10 Jan 2018 6:15pm

Just about given up on Paddy.
Still not over his foot sprain, and 1 concussion away from retirement.
Hopefully we have our eye on a key forward.
Josh Battle comes into consideration, with Bruce and Membrey.

Reckon we will struggle to go up this year and will be flat out maintaining ladder position.

Hopefully our recruits get game time.

Sorry not to be optimistic but that is how I see the year ahead.
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby evertonfc » Wed 10 Jan 2018 8:34pm

fugazi wrote:Just about given up on Paddy.
Still not over his foot sprain, and 1 concussion away from retirement.
Hopefully we have our eye on a key forward.
Josh Battle comes into consideration, with Bruce and Membrey.

Reckon we will struggle to go up this year and will be flat out maintaining ladder position.

Hopefully our recruits get game time.

Sorry not to be optimistic but that is how I see the year ahead.


Similar view to me. Just can't see the improvement in our list?

Improvement, if there is to be any, will be from 20 or so players each improving 10-15 per cent, rather than five players improving 30 per cent.

That way as a unit we will be far more competitive and pushing for top six.

And if we can get Freeman, Goddard and McCartin all comtributing in a meaningful way, then we're certainly on course to go up.

But I just think there's too many "ifs" from a B-grade list that doesn't have the talent ceiling of others.
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby desertsaint » Wed 10 Jan 2018 10:39pm

will continue our fall back down the ladder unless our goal kicking dramatically improves - that was the reason for our fall last year. could finsh anywhere from 8-16. we need kelly in two years or 2020 will see us still treading water as a mid-rung team
i'm happy with our 2013 draft - billings and dunstan will be long term top class players. acres could be - fingers crossed. From the 2014 crop we need paddy to become half the player we thought we were drafting. sinclair should become a very handy B+ player. Steele was a very good get and better than Sinclair, so a potential A. outside those players - roberton and carlisle are fantastic, as is (was?) steven. ross will be a class player for some time, not quite AA level though. gresham looks likely, bruce at the crossroads, but i think he's very important, as is membrey.
the rest of the team? we need them playing to full potential.
i'm not worried about 2018, other than praying paddy shows something. i don't think we'll make finals, but hope the group shows further improvement. also don't think our coach is the one that will lead us to success, but is doing an okay job developing the team.
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby Numpty » Thu 11 Jan 2018 12:32am

desertsaint wrote: also don't think our coach is the one that will lead us to success, but is doing an okay job developing the team.

I agree with you Saint of the Desert. And my son-in-law Jayden, or Jarhead, or whatever, anyway, Judah tells me that you are from a desert to the north, not one from the south like where Mexicans come from. That is very important, believe me. And you are right about this hippy Zen meditating Muslim, Alan Richardson. He is too soft, too soft on Mexican Muslims, believe me! We need our coach to be a true patriot, and a hard disciplinarian who can show some true tough love. Tough patriotic true love, believe me!

So I am planning on firing Alan Richardson, very soon too, believe me. And I have just the replacement. Burned a dog alive and laughed when the dog’s owner cried, made women give birth in shackles, refused to investigate child sex crimes, operated what he called “a concentration camp”. :lol: :lol: :lol: Clearly a true patriot, believe me! And also a great friend of mine, a great friend, and is just the man that this country, no not just this country, this footy club, needs! A man with the right credentials to drain the Moorabbin swamp, believe me. Folks, I give you my nomination to coach St Kilda, a great friend, a true patriot, and my man to come to Moorabbin and help me drain the swamp......... Sheriff 'smokin Joe' Arpaio! Believe me.

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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby spert » Thu 11 Jan 2018 10:20am

At AFL level every year is a boom or bust- success is the only driver, especially for the Saints. In the current financial environment, the gap between the haves and have nots is increasing, and we have no option but to make every effort to get into the finals and ideally win the the ultimate prize, otherwise the gap will widen between us and the highly resourced clubs as every season goes on..the gap is there already.

It is simply not good enough to go down the traditional Saints warm and fuzzy path of " everything is coming along nicely..we're developing/ rebuilding...no hurry..2020 will be a good year etc etc ", that is one of the reasons the Saints have such a poor record of achievement- we seem to have been developing, rebuilding etc since 1966 and sometimes got close but never quite got there. Our current coach has a poor win/ loss record in his tenure, and he need to turn that around- been there a few years and now needs to take the next step in his career...you can develop players all you like, but at some stage you have your get your team winning enough games to get into the finals and we blew it badly in season 2017 with some inexcuseable losses.

In season 2018, the players who have been in our system for a few years, need to step up further, the older players need to show increased leadership by example, and those who are coming through who have supposed potential, need to start showing that potential. If we can get that situation into play, then the future will be bright.
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby samoht » Thu 11 Jan 2018 10:39am

I think people are placing too much emphasis on the importance of having coach A over coach B. Hardwick was on the brink of getting the chop, but a couple of key recruits, the injection of more pace and players developing and going to the next level at the same time - that was the key.

What success did Richmond have in the last 5 years, prior to last year?

Who would make the most difference to us - Fyfe, Martin or Lyon, Hardwick? Let's be realistic.

We just need a more damaging midfield and some luck - AR is doing a good job with what he has - and we were credited as being one of the teams that apply fierce defensive pressure - so he has the players giving their all.

We have a lot of workhorses in the midfield - we need class - midfielders that can hang on to the ball and create havoc, with their kicking skills.
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby DJ Higgins » Thu 11 Jan 2018 1:51pm

Broken record here but if one of our guys can become a good outside mid this year then we are in business.
Backline is now set. By that I mean we have depth in place and players will now be fighting for positions. Still not sure why we drafted 3-4 backs (depending on your view on Hunter Clark)
Forwards will need some work but not as much as people think. Member will stand up this year and Bruce will realise that there are young guys coming thru so he should lift as well. Battle can kick straight but will take time
I am hoping one of our small forwards train on how to snap goals as that was missing last year. My money is on Sinclair
Lots of inside mids, too many to be honest and not enough outside Mids. Hunter Clark will start at HBF but will end up in the midst, just not sure how long the transition will take.
Doulton Langland's is quick but young so don’t expect to see him until 2019
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby SaintPav » Thu 11 Jan 2018 4:37pm

Hopefully Henry Playfair comes with some new ideas so expect the game plan to change somewhat.

Last year we were terrible at implementing the game plan and I thought we pressed up too hard; we were not very good at defending the other way, particularly against the better teams. Sydney are very good at this and we have struggled against them badly over the last 5 years, so Playfair wasn’t a random choice.
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby Con Gorozidis » Thu 11 Jan 2018 9:37pm

SaintPav wrote:Hopefully Henry Playfair comes with some new ideas so expect the game plan to change somewhat.

Last year we were terrible at implementing the game plan and I thought we pressed up too hard; we were not very good at defending the other way, particularly against the better teams. Sydney are very good at this and we have struggled against them badly over the last 5 years, so Playfair wasn’t a random choice.


So you must not think Ben McGlynn is much chop?
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby Wayne42 » Thu 11 Jan 2018 10:13pm

Con Gorozidis wrote:
SaintPav wrote:Hopefully Henry Playfair comes with some new ideas so expect the game plan to change somewhat.

Last year we were terrible at implementing the game plan and I thought we pressed up too hard; we were not very good at defending the other way, particularly against the better teams. Sydney are very good at this and we have struggled against them badly over the last 5 years, so Playfair wasn’t a random choice.


So you must not think Ben McGlynn is much chop?



McGlynn is chump chop, hence his job now is to kick the footy's, move the witches hats, oh, i nearly forgot, pick up the tracky tops after they've been flung onto the turf.
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby SaintPav » Thu 11 Jan 2018 10:23pm

Con Gorozidis wrote:
SaintPav wrote:Hopefully Henry Playfair comes with some new ideas so expect the game plan to change somewhat.

Last year we were terrible at implementing the game plan and I thought we pressed up too hard; we were not very good at defending the other way, particularly against the better teams. Sydney are very good at this and we have struggled against them badly over the last 5 years, so Playfair wasn’t a random choice.


So you must not think Ben McGlynn is much chop?


Ben who?
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Re: Rebuild Boom or Bust

Postby Con Gorozidis » Thu 11 Jan 2018 10:52pm

SaintPav wrote:
Con Gorozidis wrote:
SaintPav wrote:Hopefully Henry Playfair comes with some new ideas so expect the game plan to change somewhat.

Last year we were terrible at implementing the game plan and I thought we pressed up too hard; we were not very good at defending the other way, particularly against the better teams. Sydney are very good at this and we have struggled against them badly over the last 5 years, so Playfair wasn’t a random choice.


So you must not think Ben McGlynn is much chop?


Ben who?


Some ex Hawk I believe.

As for Boom or Bust I think Ross, Billings, Steele, Acres and Dunstan are ready to take the AFL by storm. I think any move we have upwards in 2018 will be on the back of these five.
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