Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

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Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby outside66 » Tue 10 Oct 2017 2:02pm

I was a bit bored and decided to see which players from previous drafts went at pick 7 & 8. What my study indicated to me is that out of the 16 players featured, I would only consider 4 to be guns (Heppell, Wines, Haynes, and McDonald). It’s obviously premature to judge the class of ‘15/’16 but they certainly haven’t ‘burst’ onto the scene for their respective clubs. If history is consistent then we have a 25% chance of ‘nailing’ it!

I’m nervous but hopefully the crew have done their homework and paid a trip to the local prophet!

’09: Brad Shephard (7) and John Butcher (8)
’10: Josh Caddy and Dyson Heppell
’11: Nick Haynes and Billy Longer
’12: Ollie Wines and Sam Mayes
’13: James Aish and Luke McDonald
’14: Paul Ahern and Peter Wright
’15: Jacob Hopper and Callum Ah Chee
’16: Jack Scrimshaw and Griffin Logue
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby ss1986 » Tue 10 Oct 2017 2:12pm

Inspiring stuff.

Caddy and Heppell the only decent combo there.

Even if both were put straight into our team right now with 7 years of experience under their belts, it wouldn't be enough to get us over the line to win a flag.
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby parkeysainter » Tue 10 Oct 2017 2:13pm

Joel Selwood and Lenny Hayes were pick 7's from memory.
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby saintsRrising » Tue 10 Oct 2017 2:28pm

parkeysainter wrote: and Lenny Hayes were pick 7's from memory.


Pick #11 1998 National Draft
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby MC Gusto » Tue 10 Oct 2017 2:29pm

Analysis like this is fraught with danger given it excludes guns that have been picked after those picks in the same draft year
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby outside66 » Tue 10 Oct 2017 2:33pm

parkeysainter wrote:Joel Selwood and Lenny Hayes were pick 7's from memory.



You're right about Selwood but Lenny was pick 11. I didn't want to go too far back in the draft years as the whole landscape with drafting has shifted so much with a lot more detail and information on young talent available i.e draft combine, increased resources/focus at club level etc.

A Joel Selwood would be a handy get though!
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby outside66 » Tue 10 Oct 2017 2:34pm

MC Gusto wrote:Analysis like this is fraught with danger given it excludes guns that have been picked after those picks in the same draft year


As I said, I was bored and the Saints need to visit the local prophet!
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby Drake Huggins » Tue 10 Oct 2017 2:34pm

Among those picked after number 6 in the 2015 draft were Jacob Hopper, Sam Weideman, Harry McKay, Charlie Curnow, Daniel Rioli, Harrison Himmelberg, Eric Hipwood, Ryan Burton and our own Jade Gresham. I'd be happy to take any two of equivalent ability to this lot. They're out there. You just have to be good enough and smart enough to find them.
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby saintsRrising » Tue 10 Oct 2017 3:37pm

MC Gusto wrote:Analysis like this is fraught with danger given it excludes guns that have been picked after those picks in the same draft year


But that is not the point. It shows who was actually taken, rather than who could have been taken.

Best from pick 7 on is different, but that would then be drafting in hindsight which we cannot do this year or any year.


So who was actually taken with those picks is quite relevant to who we may gain this year from picks 7/8. Hindsight best picks from 7 on is not.
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby Sainter_Dad » Tue 10 Oct 2017 3:43pm

saintsRrising wrote:
MC Gusto wrote:Analysis like this is fraught with danger given it excludes guns that have been picked after those picks in the same draft year


But that is not the point. It shows who was actually taken, rather than who could have been taken.

Best from pick 7 on is different, but that would then be drafting in hindsight which we cannot do this year or any year.


So who was actually taken with those picks is quite relevant to who we may gain this year from picks 7/8. Hindsight best picks from 7 on is not.



Who was picked in the past at 7 & 8 has no relevance to who we may pick up. You would be better focusing on who has been picked by the current draft think tank after 7 & 8 and try and see if that has been successful.
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby 6621104 » Tue 10 Oct 2017 4:00pm

good post, re-assuring that with both picks at least one will be a best 18 player at a minimum. At least thats my reading of the list presented.
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby saynta » Tue 10 Oct 2017 4:45pm

Current draft order. Without comp picks.


ROUND ONE

1. Brisbane Lions
2. Gold Coast
3. Carlton
4. North Melbourne
5. Fremantle
6. Collingwood
7. St Kilda
8. St Kilda
9. Western Bulldogs
10. Melbourne
11. Essendon
12. Brisbane Lions
13. West Coast
14. Sydney
15. Richmond
16. Adelaide
17. Richmond

ROUND TWO

18. Brisbane Lions
19. Gold Coast
20. Geelong
21. North Melbourne
22. Gold Coast
23. Greater Western Sydney
24. Gold Coast
25. Greater Western Sydney
26. Western Bulldogs
27. Melbourne
28. Essendon
29. Port Adelaide
30. West Coast
31. Sydney
32. Hawthorn
33. Geelong
34. Adelaide
35. Gold Coast (
Advertisement

ROUND THREE

36. Collingwood
37. Gold Coast
38. Carlton
39. Western Bulldogs
40. Fremantle
41. Brisbane Lions
42. Hawthorn
43. St Kilda
44. North Melbourne
45. Melbourne
46. Essendon
47. Port Adelaide
48. West Coast
49. Sydney
50. Richmond
51. Geelong
52. Adelaide
53. Richmond
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby parkeysainter » Tue 10 Oct 2017 4:47pm

saintsRrising wrote:
parkeysainter wrote: and Lenny Hayes were pick 7's from memory.


Pick #11 1998 National Draft


Oh. Close! :D
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby parkeysainter » Tue 10 Oct 2017 4:48pm

saynta wrote:Current draft order. Without comp picks.


ROUND ONE

1. Brisbane Lions
2. Gold Coast
3. Carlton
4. North Melbourne
5. Fremantle
6. Collingwood
7. St Kilda
8. St Kilda
9. Western Bulldogs
10. Melbourne
11. Essendon
12. Brisbane Lions
13. West Coast
14. Sydney
15. Richmond
16. Adelaide
17. Richmond

ROUND TWO

18. Brisbane Lions
19. Gold Coast
20. Geelong
21. North Melbourne
22. Gold Coast
23. Greater Western Sydney
24. Gold Coast
25. Greater Western Sydney
26. Western Bulldogs
27. Melbourne
28. Essendon
29. Port Adelaide
30. West Coast
31. Sydney
32. Hawthorn
33. Geelong
34. Adelaide
35. Gold Coast (
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ROUND THREE

36. Collingwood
37. Gold Coast
38. Carlton
39. Western Bulldogs
40. Fremantle
41. Brisbane Lions
42. Hawthorn
43. St Kilda
44. North Melbourne
45. Melbourne
46. Essendon
47. Port Adelaide
48. West Coast
49. Sydney
50. Richmond
51. Geelong
52. Adelaide
53. Richmond


Happy if we traded out pick 43 for a fringe and young FB/CHB that shows alot of promise.
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby Spinner » Tue 10 Oct 2017 5:17pm

parkeysainter wrote:Joel Selwood and Lenny Hayes were pick 7's from memory.




Lenny was number 7...
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby saintsRrising » Tue 10 Oct 2017 5:17pm

Sainter_Dad wrote:
saintsRrising wrote:
MC Gusto wrote:Analysis like this is fraught with danger given it excludes guns that have been picked after those picks in the same draft year


But that is not the point. It shows who was actually taken, rather than who could have been taken.

Best from pick 7 on is different, but that would then be drafting in hindsight which we cannot do this year or any year.


So who was actually taken with those picks is quite relevant to who we may gain this year from picks 7/8. Hindsight best picks from 7 on is not.



Who was picked in the past at 7 & 8 has no relevance to who we may pick up. You would be better focusing on who has been picked by the current draft think tank after 7 & 8 and try and see if that has been successful.


It is a good predictor of the likely success of what we will get with picks 7 and 8.
With two picks thereabouts we are a good chance to get at least one very good player.
Possible, but not likely, to get two very good players.
Also possible to get get two only so so players.
Chance (if you look back even further), but not likely, to get an absolute gun. (Which is why I think some are hoping that Bonar may be there then as he may well be that gun if his knee holds out).


As for the current think tank if you look at their picks in the first two rounds in recent years only Greham is an out-perform.
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby saintsRrising » Tue 10 Oct 2017 7:08pm

parkeysainter wrote:
Happy if we traded out pick 43 for a fringe and young FB/CHB that shows alot of promise.


Jack Steven, arguably our best player of the last 10 drafts, was Pick 42 ;)
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby parkeysainter » Tue 10 Oct 2017 7:19pm

saintsRrising wrote:
parkeysainter wrote:
Happy if we traded out pick 43 for a fringe and young FB/CHB that shows alot of promise.


Jack Steven, arguably our best player of the last 10 drafts, was Pick 42 ;)


Haha. True. Better keep it then! :D

In all seriousness though, all credit to Jack Steven. He shows that a later pick can turn very special. I might be wrong but I think Rory Sloane and Luke Parker were later picks too.
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby Con Gorozidis » Tue 10 Oct 2017 8:44pm

I think 2015 and 16 are looking pretty good.
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby Drake Huggins » Tue 10 Oct 2017 9:30pm

parkeysainter wrote:
saintsRrising wrote:
parkeysainter wrote:
Happy if we traded out pick 43 for a fringe and young FB/CHB that shows alot of promise.


Jack Steven, arguably our best player of the last 10 drafts, was Pick 42 ;)


Haha. True. Better keep it then! :D

In all seriousness though, all credit to Jack Steven. He shows that a later pick can turn very special. I might be wrong but I think Rory Sloane and Luke Parker were later picks too.


Jack was a "bottom ager" who Bevo saw potential in. Would've been a top tenner the following year, with the filth especially interested. Others wanted to get another look in a season with the Falcons. Bevo swooped. One of our best drafting coups.
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby Enrico_Misso » Wed 11 Oct 2017 12:15am

We missed out on John Butcher in 2009 but our forward line is full of butchers now.
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby degruch » Wed 11 Oct 2017 8:16am

Enrico_Misso wrote:We missed out on John Butcher in 2009 but our forward line is full of butchers now.


He'd fit right in now...in fact, he'd be a sharpshooter compared to our lot!
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby parkeysainter » Wed 11 Oct 2017 11:19am

Drake Huggins wrote:
parkeysainter wrote:
saintsRrising wrote:
parkeysainter wrote:
Happy if we traded out pick 43 for a fringe and young FB/CHB that shows alot of promise.


Jack Steven, arguably our best player of the last 10 drafts, was Pick 42 ;)


Haha. True. Better keep it then! :D

In all seriousness though, all credit to Jack Steven. He shows that a later pick can turn very special. I might be wrong but I think Rory Sloane and Luke Parker were later picks too.


Jack was a "bottom ager" who Bevo saw potential in. Would've been a top tenner the following year, with the filth especially interested. Others wanted to get another look in a season with the Falcons. Bevo swooped. One of our best drafting coups.


Didn't even know that...so he could have played another year of U/18's then? Bevo was a total draft master.

I'm pretty sure we got Geary a year early also.
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby saintsRrising » Thu 12 Oct 2017 1:48pm

parkeysainter wrote: a year early also.


You cannot actually get players a year early. But as the draft is once per year some players will be at or near the youngest possible age.

Player Eligibility: Originally, in order to be eligible for the draft, potential picks had to be 17 years old on or before April 30 of their drafted year. Though, due to growing concerns of younger draftees playing footy in other states, the draft age was raised to 18 in 2009. Currently, a player must be 18 on or before April 30 the year following the National Draft.

Jack Steven was born on 28 March. So was a month under minimum age.

Paddy was born on 19 April and so he just snuck in which is something that those bagging his fitness/body definition should bare in mind.
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Re: Picks 7 & 8 since 2009

Postby saynta » Thu 12 Oct 2017 1:54pm

Should be able to recruit two of the following if we don't do anything stupid with our two draft picks.


2017’S TOP DRAFT PROSPECTS

ADAM CERRA (Vic Metro, Eastern Ranges)

Despite a shoulder surgery bringing his season to an early end, the midfielder is predicted to be an early pick. Similar to GWS star Josh Kelly, Cerra is polished by foot but doesn’t mind getting his hands dirty on the inside with clearances and hard tackling. A strong mark over head for his size.

Cameron Rayner in action for the Western Jets.

Paddy Dow in action for Vic Country.

CAMERON RAYNER (Vic Metro, Western Jets)

Comparisons to Dustin Martin can’t help but boost his draft value. At 187cm he’s the same height as Dusty, plays the same role as the Tigers superstar and has the haircut to match as well. Rayner kicked off his under-18 carnival for Vic Metro with 23 disposals against WA and destroyed SA with 16 possessions, seven marks and five goals.

LUKE DAVIES-UNIACKE (Vic Country, Dandenong Stingrays)

Seen as the outstanding midfielder in the 2017 draft class, the 187cm inside midfielder also has similar traits to Martin or Christian Petracca. While injuries have been an issue in the past, his draft season has been excellent with his stoppage work a highlight.

PADDY DOW (Vic Country, Bendigo Pioneers)

Midfielder with great character who cuts angles, kicks goals, can win clearances and marks overhead. Seven of the eight Victorians the Lions have drafted over the past two years have been country boys. Bagged two goals from 35 disposals on Sunday.

JARROD BRANDER (NSW/ACT, Bendigo Pioneers)

After losing his GWS Academy eligibility, Brander has been in the sights of every team. However, don’t expect him to last long on draft night as the top key forward prospect. At 195cm, the NSW product has the size but also the athleticism to make a mark in the AFL.

DARCY FOGARTY (South Australia, Glenelg)

Fogarty’s under-18 championships campaign was ruined by a knee injury and surgery in July brought his draft season is an early end. However, the South Australian started the year as a No. 1 contender due to his versatility. At 192cm, Fogarty can play forward, across half-back and in the midfield.

JAIDYN STEPHENSON (Vic Metro, Eastern Ranges)

The X-factor option in the 2017 draft, Stephenson has developed into a midfielder with Eastern Ranges this season. His 39-disposal performance against Sandringham certainly caught the eye. At 189cm, the youngster has plenty of upside and could be a surprise selection depending on the club.
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