How's that great deal looking now?

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How's that great deal looking now?

Postby GregPackhamsHeadband » Thu 14 Sep 2017 12:48am

It was the steal of the century. The deal that had some calling for an inquiry, so one sided did it seem. Hawthorn were giving away the farm to get Jaeger O'Meara and the saints were in the front row with their grateful hands outstretched. In exchange for pick 10 in the 2016 draft (68 thrown in as steak knives) we got what has now turned out to be pick 7 in 2017 and effectively two players, in Ben Long and Josh Battle. At first glance, this looked unbelievable. The reality that is developing is not quite so good.

The rationale behind the delayed gratification was that we'd built up a war chest of cash and now two first rounders that would prove crucial in getting potential trades done, as in the possible Kelly deal. It was our stated ambition to get one or two guns, and the deal seemed to facilitate that aim. It's not turning out that way. The guns are gone, no one, not even the second tier types want to come to us, so we are going to go to the draft. Strewth!

Let's have a look at the other side of the deal. People forget we gave up pick ten last year. That could've netted us Oliver Florent ( pacey midfield type) or, gulp, Sam Powell Pepper! Of course, pick ten from us may also have jagged JOM, but the club decided against him on medical advice. Fair enough. The signs are that JOM may still be the gun he was pre-injury, so the Hawks may still win out, overall.

In any event, we could've had a top ten talent in our system for a year, developing and getting games under his belt and an extra preseason ahead of this year's picks. Sure we got Long and Battle, and only the future will tell us if they will succeed, but the signs with Long are worrying, while Battle looks promising but is still a long way off. So, at this stage, we're really not much better off having done the deal, although nailing two top ten picks would swing things back our way. In fact, right now, I'd say we're behind.

The problem is while the intention of our plan was good, the execution and planning has gone awry. Given Elshyte's record at the draft table, I'm not that confident he'll even the ledger up, much less put us into surplus. The idea of trading quality in was the right way to go, given recent history. Unfortunately, it would appear we wrote some cheques we haven't been able to cash. I had a feeling this would happen. Matt Finnis was trying to ease us into disappointment gently by recently hinting we were looking at getting a couple of slightly cheaper recruits rather than one highly paid star. At the time, I felt this signalled to us that they already knew they were not aiming for the top guns. Pity.

All we can hope for now is they get picks 7 & 8 right. It doesn't really fit the timetable even if they do. No matter how good these kids will be, they'll still take a few years to produce their best. Top four next year? A flag by 2020? We might have to readjust. I just hope we are not doomed to float in the no man's land of 7-12. That looks likely at this stage. We're now starting on our next five year plan. Again.
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby skeptic » Thu 14 Sep 2017 1:01am

I don't think it's fair to measure a deal on hindsight information...

Us not landing a big fish, or the players we recruited with the picks we got not working out (though a very premature call) does not make the deal any better or worse.
That's on us.

The deal itself was fantastic
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby parkeysainter » Thu 14 Sep 2017 1:02am

GregPackhamsHeadband wrote:It was the steal of the century. The deal that had some calling for an inquiry, so one sided did it seem. Hawthorn were giving away the farm to get Jaeger O'Meara and the saints were in the front row with their grateful hands outstretched. In exchange for pick 10 in the 2016 draft (68 thrown in as steak knives) we got what has now turned out to be pick 7 in 2017 and effectively two players, in Ben Long and Josh Battle. At first glance, this looked unbelievable. The reality that is developing is not quite so good.

The rationale behind the delayed gratification was that we'd built up a war chest of cash and now two first rounders that would prove crucial in getting potential trades done, as in the possible Kelly deal. It was our stated ambition to get one or two guns, and the deal seemed to facilitate that aim. It's not turning out that way. The guns are gone, no one, not even the second tier types want to come to us, so we are going to go to the draft. Strewth!

Let's have a look at the other side of the deal. People forget we gave up pick ten last year. That could've netted us Oliver Florent ( pacey midfield type) or, gulp, Sam Powell Pepper! Of course, pick ten from us may also have jagged JOM, but the club decided against him on medical advice. Fair enough. The signs are that JOM may still be the gun he was pre-injury, so the Hawks may still win out, overall.

In any event, we could've had a top ten talent in our system for a year, developing and getting games under his belt and an extra preseason ahead of this year's picks. Sure we got Long and Battle, and only the future will tell us if they will succeed, but the signs with Long are worrying, while Battle looks promising but is still a long way off. So, at this stage, we're really not much better off having done the deal, although nailing two top ten picks would swing things back our way. In fact, right now, I'd say we're behind.

The problem is while the intention of our plan was good, the execution and planning has gone awry. Given Elshyte's record at the draft table, I'm not that confident he'll even the ledger up, much less put us into surplus. The idea of trading quality in was the right way to go, given recent history. Unfortunately, it would appear we wrote some cheques we haven't been able to cash. I had a feeling this would happen. Matt Finnis was trying to ease us into disappointment gently by recently hinting we were looking at getting a couple of slightly cheaper recruits rather than one highly paid star. At the time, I felt this signalled to us that they already knew they were not aiming for the top guns. Pity.

All we can hope for now is they get picks 7 & 8 right. It doesn't really fit the timetable even if they do. No matter how good these kids will be, they'll still take a few years to produce their best. Top four next year? A flag by 2020? We might have to readjust. I just hope we are not doomed to float in the no man's land of 7-12. That looks likely at this stage. We're now starting on our next five year plan. Again.


Now Kelly seems gone, that mighty and massive war chest now seems humongous. Plus there doesn't seem to be anyone else coming the Saints way. Its going to remain full to the brim.

Is there a team out there looking for a top 10 pick or maybe two? Do they want to offload 1-2 of their stars stars for our picks? Not even sure if that will happen. It will be an interesting trade period.

At worst, we use the 2 picks. No dramas with that but that war chest will still remain humongous.
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby Sainternist » Thu 14 Sep 2017 1:40am

Looks like we're stuck in AFL limbo along with the likes of Melbourne.

We're looking to the future in rebuilding the rebuild. Just effing tremendous!
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby Sainternist » Thu 14 Sep 2017 3:54am

GregPackhamsHeadband wrote:Given Elshyte's record at the draft table, I'm not that confident he'll even the ledger up, much less put us into surplus.


How is it that this this guy has remained as our recruiting manager since 2011??!
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby cwrcyn » Thu 14 Sep 2017 7:48am

If this year's draft was seen as a very strong one, there'd be very little angst. last year's pick 10 will most likely be superior to this year's pick 7. Oh well, we move on. It's in our hands.
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby MC Gusto » Thu 14 Sep 2017 8:02am

Of our recruits last year I believe battle will be a player

Long still questionable


Remember we got those two in addition to pick 7

Ask any interested afl observer (hawthorn fans included) as to who won that deal. The voting is unanimous
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby fugazi » Thu 14 Sep 2017 9:13am

I don't really know how people evaluate Long and Battle yet.
They are clearly not fit enough for AFL standards, but a pre season will set that closer.
People are especially harsh on Long, I actually quite liked what I saw in his few cameos this year. Battle looked good in the AFL in the one game I saw.

Still think it is a good deal.
Will depend what we ultimately do with picks 7&8.
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby Beno88 » Thu 14 Sep 2017 9:20am

Is the OP serious?

Has trade week already finished and we got nothing? Has Florent turned out to be a first year superstar? Have we already agreed that there's no decent talent going at picks 7 & 8 this year? Did JOM not struggle with injury most of 2017? Have Elshaug's excellent selections in recent years been forgotten?

St Kilda clearly pulled off a fantastic trade with Hawthorn last year. We have a top ten pick and gave up next to nothing for it. How on earth can you say we lose that deal?!

The sky is falling attitude from some St Kilda supporters this off season is mind boggling.
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby thejiggingsaint » Thu 14 Sep 2017 9:46am

Beno88 wrote:Is the OP serious?

Has trade week already finished and we got nothing? Has Florent turned out to be a first year superstar? Have we already agreed that there's no decent talent going at picks 7 & 8 this year? Did JOM not struggle with injury most of 2017? Have Elshaug's excellent selections in recent years been forgotten?

St Kilda clearly pulled off a fantastic trade with Hawthorn last year. We have a top ten pick and gave up next to nothing for it. How on earth can you say we lose that deal?!

The sky is falling attitude from some St Kilda supporters this off season is mind boggling.


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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby stonecold » Thu 14 Sep 2017 10:03am

Beno88 wrote:Is the OP serious?

Has trade week already finished and we got nothing? Has Florent turned out to be a first year superstar? Have we already agreed that there's no decent talent going at picks 7 & 8 this year? Did JOM not struggle with injury most of 2017? Have Elshaug's excellent selections in recent years been forgotten?

St Kilda clearly pulled off a fantastic trade with Hawthorn last year. We have a top ten pick and gave up next to nothing for it. How on earth can you say we lose that deal?!

The sky is falling attitude from some St Kilda supporters this off season is mind boggling.


This!!!!!

Lots of water to pass under the St.Kilda Bridge yet!!!!!

If your not sure on Long, compare him to D.Rioli at the same stage, he is now playing an important role at the Tiges!!!!!

Stay patient, let the trade period/draft run it's course before making too many harsh.judgements!!!!!

PS. there is a few contracted stars at other clubs who airnt totally happy, or what about two first ends picks for a top 3 pick, lots of possibilities yet!!!!!

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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby kosifantutti » Thu 14 Sep 2017 10:15am

Beno nailed it. I can't remember when the deal was done, anybody saying we would get Martin or Kelly with those picks. Still a deal very much in our favour.
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby thejiggingsaint » Thu 14 Sep 2017 10:37am

Key words: FAITH, PATIENCE, LOYALTY.
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby takeaway » Thu 14 Sep 2017 10:46am

Beno88 wrote:Is the OP serious?

Has trade week already finished and we got nothing? Has Florent turned out to be a first year superstar? Have we already agreed that there's no decent talent going at picks 7 & 8 this year? Did JOM not struggle with injury most of 2017? Have Elshaug's excellent selections in recent years been forgotten?

St Kilda clearly pulled off a fantastic trade with Hawthorn last year. We have a top ten pick and gave up next to nothing for it. How on earth can you say we lose that deal?!

The sky is falling attitude from some St Kilda supporters this off season is mind boggling.



Well put. If anything, the deal has improved, Hawks thought before the deal that they would get in the 8 this year, so pick 11-12 has become 7. We would have gone for Kelly anyway without the deal. Trade/Draft time has not even started yet and we are making judgements re the deal?
In any event, Kelly is a great player, and would lift the midfield, but he also costs a lot in picks and $. Jack Billings for instance would know that we would need big money to get Kelly in, but over time how would he feel about his mate getting paid double his salary?

Finnis said we could target a couple of players in the $7-800k range, and we may well be doing that, even if they are contracted. If we cannot get these players, I am quite happy to go to the draft, use or upgrade the picks, etc. We have a good recruiting team. Can't see how we go backwards
because we don't land a big gun. Big guns are very hard to land, and so far big guns in Franklin, Danger, Treloar haven't landed a flag. We are in very strong position for the trade draft, and most of our improvement next year should come from our existing young players.

My Hawk mates are still stunned at the deal.
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby dragit » Thu 14 Sep 2017 10:54am

Can't believe I missed this years entire trade period.

Pick 10 & 68 for 7, 23 & 36

You would do that trade EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR.

We upgraded a first rounder and got 2nd rounders for free.

Not a lot you can do if players decide to stay at their current clubs, it's not like Martin & Kelly have gone to Collingwood and Carlton over us.

Very early to be writing off either Long or Battle.

Oliver Florent has basically the same numbers as Long after twice as much opportunity.
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby magnifisaint » Thu 14 Sep 2017 11:06am

Sorry but this is a real s*** thread.
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby GregPackhamsHeadband » Thu 14 Sep 2017 11:20am

Beno88 wrote:Is the OP serious?

Has trade week already finished and we got nothing? Has Florent turned out to be a first year superstar? Have we already agreed that there's no decent talent going at picks 7 & 8 this year? Did JOM not struggle with injury most of 2017? Have Elshaug's excellent selections in recent years been forgotten?

St Kilda clearly pulled off a fantastic trade with Hawthorn last year. We have a top ten pick and gave up next to nothing for it. How on earth can you say we lose that deal?!

The sky is falling attitude from some St Kilda supporters this off season is mind boggling.

Who said the sky is falling? It is an analysis of what has occurred. Of course it's too early to tell, but my point is just that, and that all the celebrations revolving around how we did Hawthorn over have been premature. We gave up next to nothing? The pick everyone is creaming themselves about, pick seven this year, came at the cost of pick ten last year. Next to no cost? What colour is the sun in your world?

As for Elshyte's fantastic picks, pick one and three and other top twenty picks should have reaped us a bonanza that should see us with a finals side by now. His overall record is a bit of a joke amongst our rivals. Fantastic selections? I'd list all his failures, but I don't want to trigger the forum. Given the strength of our drafting position in the past 6 years, his record is pathetic. People say our recruiting was shyte in the six to seven years prior to him getting the job forget that we didn't have high picks during that time, unlike his six years at he helm.
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby The_Merchant » Thu 14 Sep 2017 11:26am

I am not sure of the logic being used when evaluating the deal as a loss. The OP says that we will stuff up this years pick 7 because our recruiting dept is no good, yet we would have nailed pick 10 last year with the same recruiting dept?

There is absolutely no way anyone could evaluate that deal as anything other than a massive win for us, possibly the best deal we have made. If we stuff up the picks, that doesn't make it any less of a deal.
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby GregPackhamsHeadband » Thu 14 Sep 2017 11:27am

kosifantutti wrote:Beno nailed it. I can't remember when the deal was done, anybody saying we would get Martin or Kelly with those picks. Still a deal very much in our favour.

My point is, KFT, at this stage, yes, it still favours us, but what will it look like in 12 months time? JOM was looking very promising towards the end of the year. Long and Battle are still unknown quantities, although I believe Battle should make it. We don't know what the outcome of picks 7 or 8 will be, so let's see what we get, trade wise or with picks. What is clear is that our plan has not worked out, so we now go to the alternatives. As Chairman Mao stated when asked if the French Revolution worked, "It's too early to tell!" Giving Elshyte's track record, I'm very worried we'll blow several years of planning.
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby GregPackhamsHeadband » Thu 14 Sep 2017 11:33am

The_Merchant wrote:I am not sure of the logic being used when evaluating the deal as a loss. The OP says that we will stuff up this years pick 7 because our recruiting dept is no good, yet we would have nailed pick 10 last year with the same recruiting dept?

There is absolutely no way anyone could evaluate that deal as anything other than a massive win for us, possibly the best deal we have made. If we stuff up the picks, that doesn't make it any less of a deal.


I don't know how many times I have to say it, but it's too early to tell if it's a great deal. We'll see. I hope we can still trade for some quality, rather than leave it to the picks exclusively. I didn't say we were guaranteed a great player with pick ten last year. Just showed the possibilities. I can't believe people still believe we didn't give up much. Pick ten people. Yes, we were well compensated, but the celebrations at the making of that deal was and is, premature. How will it look if JOM delivers? An absolute bargain for the Hawks, I would've thought.
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby takeaway » Thu 14 Sep 2017 12:19pm

If its too early to tell, why raise it? On face value, it is one of the most one sided deals ever achieved. End of story.
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby santazzi » Thu 14 Sep 2017 1:45pm

"The sky is falling attitude from some St Kilda supporters this off season is mind boggling."

"This off season"? Beno88...in the 20 or so off seasons I have been on this site...my memory is that the sky has tumbled down in every single one of them...that is our way!
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby stonecold » Thu 14 Sep 2017 1:47pm

santazzi wrote:"The sky is falling attitude from some St Kilda supporters this off season is mind boggling."

"This off season"? Beno88...in the 20 or so off seasons I have been on this site...my memory is that the sky has tumbled down in every single one of them...that is our way!



Well then, we need to change that then!!!!!
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby dragit » Thu 14 Sep 2017 1:58pm

If a club comes to us again this year and offers up pick 4 (2018), 23 & 36 for our 7 & 61… we make out like bandits, again.
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Re: How's that great deal looking now?

Postby GregPackhamsHeadband » Thu 14 Sep 2017 2:11pm

takeaway wrote:If its too early to tell, why raise it? On face value, it is one of the most one sided deals ever achieved. End of story.

Not yet it's not. What if we blow the two picks? Get a Kane Tenace and a Barry Brooks for example? The whole outcome depends on what we do with the pick 7 we acquired. Jury out on Long and Battle. The point I made was not that the deal was a mistake, but that we won't know it's real value until much later. If we end up missing out on a traded in gun, then our plan has backfired, or won't be fulfilled as intended. That's a partial fail already. I thought the idea was to get the extra first rounder to throw at a Kelly, Whitfield, Hopper type. Now it looks as though even the less preferred options of Stringer and Rockliff are off the table. Is all that so really so hard to understand? :roll:
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