The Flux State of the Nation Report

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AeonFlux
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The Flux State of the Nation Report

Post: # 1697790Post AeonFlux »

Some excerpts from recent field reports and (mostly) expert analyses that have come across my computer screens recently. (Credit will be attributed to those anonymous contributors only if they wish to have their identities revealed.)

Roo retires.
Just how damn freakishly good was this bloke??? To put it in perspective, just ask a few questions.
How many players in AFL history have played at an elite standard for as long as this bloke? Bartlett, (our champion of the game) Harvey, (their petulant) Harvey, (maybe) Bradley............... and now, I'm struggling.
And how many did so playing the acknowledged hardest position in the game? (Clue - think of how many teams, anywhere, have a fuglier jumper than Hawthorn, or how much Tyrone Vickery's contract really should be for, or how much weight Eddie McGuire has lost since becoming Bogan FC President.) Just look at any other of the great CHFs in the history of the game. By their late twenties (early thirties at best), all were a shadow of what they were in their prime.

And Roo achieved this on one knee!!! :shock:

Joey retired.
A little sad about Joey, I know him a little bit as he's married to one of my good mates sister… so have have met him a few times.

Leigh absolutely bleeds for the club, so it's always riled me when <redacted> have a go at his character and call him a <redacted> bloke for wanting to play on if the club needed him.
I think Joey could have gone on, but I don't think he should have. WE cannot stifle the development of the next generation for the sake of one more year of "on-field leadership". The truth is that whenever a vacuum is created, someone or something else steps up to fill that vacuum.

We have Bailey, White, Webster, Roberton, etc They won't evolve in the second row seats or running around in the magoos, the strongest steel is forged in the hottest fire......


The List (in general).
The obvious thing we lacked was someone like a Lenny, who in the past would have imposed themselves in that first quarter to stop the rot and settle the team. Didn't help having a mature, hard bull type like Koby off the ground, and someone like an Armo would have been invaluable.

We will get there, but the problem we are seeing now is the "games into kids thing" playing out. This is the last vestiges of the effect from the woeful condition into which our list was allowed to descend. This will improve over this off season as the younger kids start to take over ownership of this team from the old guard. The one I am expecting to start to shine now, surprisingly, is Luke Dunstan. I have not been enamoured of him up until now, but something is now standing out - he has had a crap season and been dropped three times this year. Despite this he has hung tough and done what he had to do and stepped his game up - when the going gets tough etc - that to me shows the kid's character.

Get Kelly and Freeman into that midfield and we start to look a lot more damaging. Also get another preseason into Billings, Sinclair, Gresham, Acres and Dunstan and I think we improve dramatically....

The List (some players specifically)
White - Don't know why he isn't playing?
Rice - Physically ready, and a great kick. Must surely get a run next season.
Goddard - Injury has meant we haven't been able to play him. I reckon he'll end up surprising people. And doing so as a forward.
Battle - Had a taster game. Was unlikely to play this year given his VCE commitments. Next year we should start seeing this bloke show us what he can really do.
Long - Whilst I admit to being a bit disappointed with his year, I don't get the angst on SS.
Pierce - I can see him holding down a key defence posi', or the ruckman forward role. If Hickey can't bounce back, then Louie for first ruck I say. (Certainly not the current incumbent.)
And Marshall - Don't know why he didn't get more games?

Also, Connellan and NO'K (though a slight worry over his size)

On bernard shakey ground:
Meatball.
Hickey (if not back to 2016 form in 2018.)
Phillips.
McKenzie - Unless this year is an aberration, I reckon he's goneski.

Goneski:
Lonie. (Update - since delisted.)
Roo. (Update - since retired.)
Joey. (Update - since 'retired'.)
Wright. (Update - since delisted.)
Holmesy. (Update - since delisted.)
Coghlan (Update - since delisted.)
Billy (Trade out, but hell, get him out one way or another! Have gone totally stonecold on what this bloke offers us.)


Heading into the 2017 trading/draft period.
we should come up with a plan , so cunning
that we'd call it a Gerbil
aaaaaaAND

by deceipt , do war back

thats what i think.

its the off season ffs
.... we need something to amuse ourselves until draft day
Now that sounds like a plan!!! :mrgreen:





Heading into the 2018 trading/draft period.
Noted quite a bit of handwringing and woe-is-us over 'big fish'. If we're to pay big time overs for someone else's star, I would have gone for Dusty. Because at least he'd only cost $$$, and not our two first rounders. Same reason I'd go for Rockcliff. (Has he re-signed with Brisbane yet?)

But it's worked out well. The Tigers will now have a very tight cap. I believe we'll still be landing a player or two (like Whitfield, and I really hope, Alir Alir, before the Swans realise the error of their ways). And even if not as 'big fish' as Kelly or Martin, they'll be good. They'll leave us in position to try again in 2018. https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/out ... ?year=2018

If we're to spend big $$$, I'd be looking at Tom Lynch from the Suns, the Tasmanian Hillbilly bloke at North, Toby Greene (even if only for the <redacted> and giggles), McGovern and Yeo from the Western Cokers, but definitely not that receiver Gaff!!! (Though Yeo is very very unlikely, being a 'return-homer' to them from Brisbane.)
If we're to spend big $$$ and draft picks, I'd be looking at the Tractor.
If Richo is overworked and needs some helping walking his dogs - Jordan De Goey from Collingwood is a no-brainer.
If we're chuffed with the Nathan Brown grab (and I am), I'd be looking at doubling up with Ben Reid, or Heath Grundy from the Swines.

In other words, no need to fret if we don't make a killing with trades and Free Agency this year. In 2018 there's plenty on offer for all tastes and budgets. We just need to keep out powder dry.



Some 2017 on-field analysis and number crunching.
The AFL Season 2017 Scoring Shots Ladder: http://www.afl.com.au/stats

We finished in a three way tie for third place overall. (Not sure how to separate teams on a percentage basis for this kind of ladder...? )

Unsurprisingly... we finished outright first for most behinds kicked - if that isn't something of an oxymoron(?)

So, although admittedly somewhat simplistic, what this says is that we are actually getting the thing into our forward line, and we are kicking it between sticks. (Though not between 'the' sticks enough. )

In other words, we're not actually that far off the pace of the competition, despite what some naysayers might believe.
Total average disposals per game - fourth over all (0.1 per game from the team that was third overall).

(Possibly) tellingly, the Crows are the only top team close to us for average match disposals. The rest of the final eight teams are well behind out average, and finish 'mid-table' overall.

So, we're...
- Winning it pretty well, but then handing it over again too often, and/or
- Too many of our possessions are going sideways/or even backwards, but not successfully 'switching' and setting up the play for us. In other words, not actually being damaging.
In turn, I suspect this is due to a combination of us (somehow/somewhere) losing the courage to play that run n' gun footy that made us so watchable, and also, to us cirrcumming to enemy pressure.

Last year, it was often the opposite. We played exciting run n' gun footy, and we also applied the blowtorch to the great unwashed. (Unfortunately though, we too often then failed to put that onto the scoreboard, before we tired........ :( )
last year our kicking accuracy was very good - twas why we finished above expectation. From 18th in 2015 to 7th last year. Was the major reason behind our fall this year. We were actually more competitive in more games this year. Continue that improvement and somehow lift our accuracy and we're a finals team for sure.




Summary:
First and foremost, we need to congratulate the CEO and the marketing team down there at Seaford.

I think there was a 10% increase in membership this year, which is very, very good in anyone's language. It's even better when you consider that they knew we were sitting on a weak list, but sold it perfectly.

In my opinion, we were heading for disaster. I think if you look at how we would have gone this year if the club hadn't have recruited the way they did in the off-season, it's pretty clear that although we performed Ok last year, things were not on the upward trajectory.

And I don't think they will be, until the Class of '13 really develops. And that will next year or the next. That is when we will really start to flourish. Slowly add in the Class of '14 and '15 and two top tenners this year, and we'll have built something nice for the future.

Simply put, we're rebuilding again. But, unlike most clubs, we've been able to notch up back to back 10 win seasons whilst doing it. Hell, we're realistically 7 seconds away from most likely playing finals this year.

To increase membership by 10%, and chalk up 10 win seasons whilst you're rebuilding - is a very, very effort. We've done it by stealth.

I'm Rodger Fox, and you're not.
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Final summation
Ying Tong iddle Aye Po!


Thoughts, Sainters? (More) thoughts, Rodger?











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ReMembering:
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----- Rodger ------- Nymeria ------- BakesFan ----------- Aaron
HarryM wrote: Nope never heard of them :roll:
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