The Fox Report - Round 21

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The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1693992Post rodgerfox »

Evening All,


Interesting season thus far, and one that I think can offer Saints fans some excitement moving forward.


First and foremost, we need to congratulate the CEO and the marketing team down there at Seaford.

I think there was a 10% increase in membership this year, which is very, very good in anyone's language. It's even better when you consider that they knew we were sitting on a weak list, but sold it perfectly.

In my opinion, we were heading for disaster. I think if you look at how we would have gone this year if the club hadn't have recruited the way they did in the off-season, it's pretty clear that although we performed Ok last year, things were not on the upward trajectory.

And I don't think they will be, until the Class of '13 really develops. And that will next year or the next. That is when we will really start to flourish. Slowly add in the Class of '14 and '15 and two top tenners this year, and we'll have built something nice for the future.

Simply put, we're rebuilding again. But, unlike most clubs, we've been able to notch up back to back 10 win seasons whilst doing it. Hell, we're realistically 7 seconds away from most likely playing finals this year.

To increase membership by 10%, and chalk up 10 win seasons whilst you're rebuilding - is a very, very effort. We've done it by stealth.


I missed the game last week, so I can't really comment. However I do need to point this out (or moreso pose the question).... How did we get within a kick at half-time and within 3-4 goals or whatever the result was, playing as poorly as we supposedly did?

I was at the West Coast game, and we were terrible. But we beat the 7th placed team.

We were horrible against Port, but lost in the last 7 seconds to the 5th placed team.

We've won interstate.

We beat GWS.

We flogged Richmond.

Even when we've won, we've looked awful.


Which leads to me to my point..... Are we 'awful by design'? I'd say, off the top of my head, that apart from probably 4 or 5 - we've been in a winning position in every other game. Ok maybe not a winning position, but certainly not out of it.

Now given that we're not blessed with talent, how can that be? How can a team that has the worst conversion in the comp, and is very light on in terms of top end talent, and seems to turn the ball over a lot, have won 10 games and been 'in the game' for another 4 or 5?

It has to the system. Could it be that the system that many observers feel is holding us back, is actually working for us?

It reminds of the time when Gary Ayres coached Adelaide, and he used to concede the first kick-in from full back. The media, led by dinosaurs like Robert Walls would be outraged that a coach could be so naive and stupid to let them get an easy kick in from full back! What they didn't realise, is that Adelaide were getting the ball on the 2nd kick. They'd concede the first one to the pocket, then stack their half forward and the opposition couldn't get it out. This went unnoticed for some time, until eventually, almost every team starting doing it.

Is there some method to the way we play? Are we just not seeing it yet? Similar to Hawthorn losing 'contested possessions' every week?

I'm leaning towards 'yes'. It's the only explanation for us not sitting in the bottom 2.



I'm not sure Josh Kelly is the answer. I'd prefer two top 10 picks to be honest. Kelly is a very, very good player - but we could fluke two very, very good players from the draft. I think in our state of rebuild, we should stick to the draft.

It needs to be remembered, that we added 4 new players to our 22. I'm not great at maths, but that equates to around 18.181818% of our team. Given that we've also had a rough injury run throughout the year, the team hasn't really had a good opportunity to gel.


I'm glad Reiwoldt is gone. He needed to. The club needed him to.

As good as he's been (the best Saint ever IMO), it was time. He was holding us back in terms of our development. I also have a view that he may have been holding Richo back too. It is a very tough gig to walk in to a club on the ropes, with an icon like Roo and run your own ship. He gets that chance now. I think it will benefit the club greatly.


Carlisle (AKA HSL, or Human Step Ladder) is our best player. Fantastic pickup. He's elite. Just clean, and a genuine gun. It does make me wonder whether I'm wrong about Kelly. But I just can't warm to giving up two top picks for one bloke.




I'm Rodger Fox, and that's my 2 cents.


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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1693996Post Gershwin »

Would you trade our first round picks 7 & 8 for pick 1 if the top-rated kid was seen to be a gun? Effectively that is what we would be doing to get Kelly and not only is he a gun he is just the type of player we need - fast, outside and skilled.


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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1693997Post meher baba »

Hi Rodger

Welcome back! I generally share your optimism, but strongly disagree with you re Kelly. We've been rebuilding with varying degrees of success for six years now. You can't keep rebuilding forever: we need to have a crack in 2018, and we need to bring in some serious talent to do so. Not wait 2-3 more years for the "class of 2017" to develop.


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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1693999Post rodgerfox »

Gershwin wrote:Would you trade our first round picks 7 & 8 for pick 1 if the top-rated kid was seen to be a gun? Effectively that is what we would be doing to get Kelly and not only is he a gun he is just the type of player we need - fast, outside and skilled.
Good question, and there is no 'right or wrong' answer at this stage (there will be one day though!).


I am a believer in needing A-graders to win a flag (obviously). The more the better. But you need at least 4-5.

Is getting Kelly going to be enough? Is one superstar in the midfield going to give us a big boost - but maybe just leave us short in having other talent around him?

With Pick 7 & 8, if we were to get one really good player and another solid 'good' player, would that be better in the long run than just Kelly? I tend to think so. Just my opinion though.


Just to put some perspective around the Draft option...

Cripps went at 13
Zak Jones went at 15
Peter Wright went at 8
Lever at 14
Curnow at 12
Burton at 19


There's a case to say that if luck was on our side, having two of those guys in the team in 2-3 years would be pretty handy.


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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1694005Post saintspremiers »

rodgerfox wrote:
Gershwin wrote:Would you trade our first round picks 7 & 8 for pick 1 if the top-rated kid was seen to be a gun? Effectively that is what we would be doing to get Kelly and not only is he a gun he is just the type of player we need - fast, outside and skilled.
Good question, and there is no 'right or wrong' answer at this stage (there will be one day though!).


I am a believer in needing A-graders to win a flag (obviously). The more the better. But you need at least 4-5.

Is getting Kelly going to be enough? Is one superstar in the midfield going to give us a big boost - but maybe just leave us short in having other talent around him?

With Pick 7 & 8, if we were to get one really good player and another solid 'good' player, would that be better in the long run than just Kelly? I tend to think so. Just my opinion though.


Just to put some perspective around the Draft option...

Cripps went at 13
Zak Jones went at 15
Peter Wright went at 8
Lever at 14
Curnow at 12
Burton at 19


There's a case to say that if luck was on our side, having two of those guys in the team in 2-3 years would be pretty handy.
Fair points rog but not only do we need to draft the right players with picks 7 & 8 (should be not too hard given they are top ten picks) but develop them FAST. We can't wait 2 or 3 years. If they are likely to be very effective in year 1 type players then maybe I'd go with you. To me, the safe option is Kelly for pick 7 this year and maybe first round pick next year. That type of trade is better than losing both first rounders this year IMO and spreads the risk over two drafts.

We simply can't afford another development year. We HAVE to make the eight next year or it's an umitigated disaster. You can't keep selling us as the "gunna" club. Punters and sponsors will ditch us and we will lose relevance again.

Whilst we need to play finals in 2018, the best we can hope for is one finals win. But that would be a huge step up from this season and give us a big chance to launch at something better in 2019 where top 4 is our required destination


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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1694006Post dragit »

rodgerfox wrote: With Pick 7 & 8, if we were to get one really good player and another solid 'good' player, would that be better in the long run than just Kelly? I tend to think so. Just my opinion though.

Just to put some perspective around the Draft option...

Cripps went at 13
Zak Jones went at 15
Peter Wright went at 8
Lever at 14
Curnow at 12
Burton at 19


There's a case to say that if luck was on our side, having two of those guys in the team in 2-3 years would be pretty handy.
Picking out a few hindsight sliders doesn't give you a great perspective though…

Here are the last 15 draft picks 7 & 8 (assuming the father son & academy players are unavailable)

2016
7 Jack Scrimshaw
8 Griffin Logue
2015
7 Jacob Hopper
8 Callum Ah Chee
9 Sam Weideman
2014
7 Paul Ahern
8 Peter Wright
2013
7 James Aish
8 Luke McDonald
9 Christian Salem
2012
7 Ollie Wines
8 Sam Mayes

2011
7 Nick Haynes
8 Billy Longer
2010
7 Josh Caddy
8 Dyson Heppell

2009
7 Brad Sheppard
8 John Butcher
2008
7 Daniel Rich
8 Ty Vickery
2007
7 Rhys Palmer
8 Lachlan Henderson
2006
7 Joel Selwood
8 Ben Reid

2005
7 Patrick Ryder
8 Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls
2004
7 Jordan Lewis
8 John Meesen
2003
7 Kane Tenace
8 Raphael Clarke
2002
7 Andrew Mackie
8 Luke Brennan


There are some very good players in there, but I think only 3 times in 15 years I would prefer the two players taken over one A grade mid like Kelly. 3 years look to be complete busts also.


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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1694007Post outside66 »

I would love to see us keep the two picks and throw EVERYTHING at Dusty. Make him an offer he can't refuse and that Richmond could not match. I can't see Dusty sticking around in the footy world once he's retired (i.e. media) therefore I think he would enjoy an extra 2-3 million (2168000 - 3252000 NZD) once he's done.

We need to spend the accumulated salary cap that we've built up from the past few years by the end of this season. Throw in the retirement money, Carlisles free year that was heavily front ended (cheers Bombers!), plus the %20 salary cap increase then we'll have enough to put forth a ridiculous offer without shooting ourselves in the foot. 2 first round picks would cost us approx 400K over 2 years whereas 2 guns would cost closer to 2 million.


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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1694009Post saintspremiers »

outside66 wrote:I would love to see us keep the two picks and throw EVERYTHING at Dusty. Make him an offer he can't refuse and that Richmond could not match. I can't see Dusty sticking around in the footy world once he's retired (i.e. media) therefore I think he would enjoy an extra 2-3 million (2168000 - 3252000 NZD) once he's done.

We need to spend the accumulated salary cap that we've built up from the past few years by the end of this season. Throw in the retirement money, Carlisles free year that was heavily front ended (cheers Bombers!), plus the %20 salary cap increase then we'll have enough to put forth a ridiculous offer without shooting ourselves in the foot. 2 first round picks would cost us approx 400K over 2 years whereas 2 guns would cost closer to 2 million.
From my very good source, Dusty will sign again with Richmond. That's also the consensus of nearly everyone in the media and on here.

So forget about him and move on


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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1694010Post outside66 »

[quote]From my very good source, Dusty will sign again with Richmond. That's also the consensus of nearly everyone in the media and on here.

So forget about him and move on


Right-O mate, just throwing my 2 cents in so I'll move wherever I like! Did your 'source' tell you how much other clubs are willing to pay him (including Richmond)?


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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1694014Post WellardSaint »

The club is extremely poor at developing drafted talent.
Have a look at all those who have been selected, played a few senior games, and got delisted.
You know who I'm talking about.
Compare that to Swans, Adelaide, and a lesser extent, Geelong.

Their guys become jewels while ours are just cubic zirconias.

A lot of our successes have been drafted by other clubs.
Carlise, Membrey, Baroose (well, he was a success last year, now he's Mr Bean), Savage, Steele, Stevens (those latter 2 are valuable)

I would rather pay for ONE proven gun, than trust the damn club to pick 2 players and attempt to polish them to be diamonds.
- huge gamble to trust the club to select the right player
- if they are the right player, it will be "wait till they hit the 50 game mark" blah blah blah

You can pay big for proven quality,
or use the 2 picks that are essentially free, in the vain hope that they aren't like Siposs or Templeton or Spencer White or any one of the others who didn't make it.


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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1694047Post Sainternist »

Refreshing to come across some optimism every once in a while on here.

With the retirement of Rooey, what better way than to introduce a new champion into the club in form of a Josh Kelly. Make no mistake, a player of that calibre would be a massive coup for the team. We need an elite midfielder - end of story.


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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1694050Post perfectionist »

rodgerfox wrote:I'm glad Reiwoldt is gone...
Luckily, Nick Riewoldt played for the Saints - for 17 years.


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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1694051Post spert »

Good report RFox. I guess if my house required as much rebuilding as the Saints have over the years, then it must have had pretty poor foundations. If you have been watching the same midfield as I have this season, then you would know that it needs a class injection. We can't just have a midfield of stayers- we need a couple of sprinters too. Kelly is obvious for starters.

Need to recruit a mature-age strong half forward flaker, but I don't know who, if anyone, might be available.

Just hoping Richo gets a good tactician on his team, as he clearly struggles in this area- then again a good coach should be a good tactician.


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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1694054Post Spinner »

rodgerfox wrote:Evening All,


Interesting season thus far, and one that I think can offer Saints fans some excitement moving forward.


First and foremost, we need to congratulate the CEO and the marketing team down there at Seaford.

I think there was a 10% increase in membership this year, which is very, very good in anyone's language. It's even better when you consider that they knew we were sitting on a weak list, but sold it perfectly.

In my opinion, we were heading for disaster. I think if you look at how we would have gone this year if the club hadn't have recruited the way they did in the off-season, it's pretty clear that although we performed Ok last year, things were not on the upward trajectory.

And I don't think they will be, until the Class of '13 really develops. And that will next year or the next. That is when we will really start to flourish. Slowly add in the Class of '14 and '15 and two top tenners this year, and we'll have built something nice for the future.

Simply put, we're rebuilding again. But, unlike most clubs, we've been able to notch up back to back 10 win seasons whilst doing it. Hell, we're realistically 7 seconds away from most likely playing finals this year.

To increase membership by 10%, and chalk up 10 win seasons whilst you're rebuilding - is a very, very effort. We've done it by stealth.


I missed the game last week, so I can't really comment. However I do need to point this out (or moreso pose the question).... How did we get within a kick at half-time and within 3-4 goals or whatever the result was, playing as poorly as we supposedly did?

I was at the West Coast game, and we were terrible. But we beat the 7th placed team.

We were horrible against Port, but lost in the last 7 seconds to the 5th placed team.

We've won interstate.

We beat GWS.

We flogged Richmond.

Even when we've won, we've looked awful.


Which leads to me to my point..... Are we 'awful by design'? I'd say, off the top of my head, that apart from probably 4 or 5 - we've been in a winning position in every other game. Ok maybe not a winning position, but certainly not out of it.

Now given that we're not blessed with talent, how can that be? How can a team that has the worst conversion in the comp, and is very light on in terms of top end talent, and seems to turn the ball over a lot, have won 10 games and been 'in the game' for another 4 or 5?

It has to the system. Could it be that the system that many observers feel is holding us back, is actually working for us?

It reminds of the time when Gary Ayres coached Adelaide, and he used to concede the first kick-in from full back. The media, led by dinosaurs like Robert Walls would be outraged that a coach could be so naive and stupid to let them get an easy kick in from full back! What they didn't realise, is that Adelaide were getting the ball on the 2nd kick. They'd concede the first one to the pocket, then stack their half forward and the opposition couldn't get it out. This went unnoticed for some time, until eventually, almost every team starting doing it.

Is there some method to the way we play? Are we just not seeing it yet? Similar to Hawthorn losing 'contested possessions' every week?

I'm leaning towards 'yes'. It's the only explanation for us not sitting in the bottom 2.



I'm not sure Josh Kelly is the answer. I'd prefer two top 10 picks to be honest. Kelly is a very, very good player - but we could fluke two very, very good players from the draft. I think in our state of rebuild, we should stick to the draft.

It needs to be remembered, that we added 4 new players to our 22. I'm not great at maths, but that equates to around 18.181818% of our team. Given that we've also had a rough injury run throughout the year, the team hasn't really had a good opportunity to gel.


I'm glad Reiwoldt is gone. He needed to. The club needed him to.

As good as he's been (the best Saint ever IMO), it was time. He was holding us back in terms of our development. I also have a view that he may have been holding Richo back too. It is a very tough gig to walk in to a club on the ropes, with an icon like Roo and run your own ship. He gets that chance now. I think it will benefit the club greatly.


Carlisle (AKA HSL, or Human Step Ladder) is our best player. Fantastic pickup. He's elite. Just clean, and a genuine gun. It does make me wonder whether I'm wrong about Kelly. But I just can't warm to giving up two top picks for one bloke.




I'm Rodger Fox, and that's my 2 cents.
Nice report and nice points.

Agree with most except two:

I was 50/50 about Riewoldt going on. I was open but agree development wise and St Kilda wise it's the best outcome.

Secondly, disagree on the injury front. I think we were blessed with good health for the second year in a row. Outside McCartin and Goddard, the best 22 outside of Armitage got an extended run throughout the season. And that's what's even more disappointing, a superb run health wise and still mid table.


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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1694057Post saintsRrising »

dragit wrote:
rodgerfox wrote: With Pick 7 & 8, if we were to get one really good player and another solid 'good' player, would that be better in the long run than just Kelly? I tend to think so. Just my opinion though.

Just to put some perspective around the Draft option...

Cripps went at 13
Zak Jones went at 15
Peter Wright went at 8
Lever at 14
Curnow at 12
Burton at 19


There's a case to say that if luck was on our side, having two of those guys in the team in 2-3 years would be pretty handy.
Picking out a few hindsight sliders doesn't give you a great perspective though…

Here are the last 15 draft picks 7 & 8 (assuming the father son & academy players are unavailable)

2016
7 Jack Scrimshaw
8 Griffin Logue
2015
7 Jacob Hopper
8 Callum Ah Chee
9 Sam Weideman
2014
7 Paul Ahern
8 Peter Wright
2013
7 James Aish
8 Luke McDonald
9 Christian Salem
2012
7 Ollie Wines
8 Sam Mayes

2011
7 Nick Haynes
8 Billy Longer
2010
7 Josh Caddy
8 Dyson Heppell

2009
7 Brad Sheppard
8 John Butcher
2008
7 Daniel Rich
8 Ty Vickery
2007
7 Rhys Palmer
8 Lachlan Henderson
2006
7 Joel Selwood
8 Ben Reid

2005
7 Patrick Ryder
8 Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls
2004
7 Jordan Lewis
8 John Meesen
2003
7 Kane Tenace
8 Raphael Clarke
2002
7 Andrew Mackie
8 Luke Brennan


There are some very good players in there, but I think only 3 times in 15 years I would prefer the two players taken over one A grade mid like Kelly. 3 years look to be complete busts also.

Exactly.

Picks 7 and 8 may get you a very good player, or it may get you not much.

Point is that our list is bursting with average players and depth players but we are desperate for genuine elite talent.

Moving in a good player will most likely not achieve that much. Morseo next year when they are 18.

Moving in an elite midfield gun will make a marked difference. Problem now is that Kelly is probably our only chance for such a player and many clubs want him including GWS where the lure of the Silver Cup will be beckoning.


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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1694066Post SuperDuper »

Kelly easily worth picks 7 and 8.

As for trading down two pick 1.... stick with 7 and 8.
We had the chance to do th eopposite in 2014 and we should have... Not bagging McCartin, but we could have hadtwo of Wright, Marchbank, Lever, Duggan, Laverde.
From our draft board that year it looks like we would have Wright and Laverde (struggled with injury this year but will be good)


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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1694121Post GregPackhamsHeadband »

We were offered 3 and 8 for pick one. Brayshaw and Wright as it turned out. A steal.


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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1694125Post Con Gorozidis »

We finished 16th in 2013 and 18th and got the wooden spoon in 2014.

Jesus h Christ people have selective memories.


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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1694134Post Spinner »

dragit wrote:
rodgerfox wrote: With Pick 7 & 8, if we were to get one really good player and another solid 'good' player, would that be better in the long run than just Kelly? I tend to think so. Just my opinion though.

Just to put some perspective around the Draft option...

Cripps went at 13
Zak Jones went at 15
Peter Wright went at 8
Lever at 14
Curnow at 12
Burton at 19


There's a case to say that if luck was on our side, having two of those guys in the team in 2-3 years would be pretty handy.
Picking out a few hindsight sliders doesn't give you a great perspective though…

Here are the last 15 draft picks 7 & 8 (assuming the father son & academy players are unavailable)

2016
7 Jack Scrimshaw
8 Griffin Logue
2015
7 Jacob Hopper
8 Callum Ah Chee
9 Sam Weideman
2014
7 Paul Ahern
8 Peter Wright
2013
7 James Aish
8 Luke McDonald
9 Christian Salem
2012
7 Ollie Wines
8 Sam Mayes

2011
7 Nick Haynes
8 Billy Longer
2010
7 Josh Caddy
8 Dyson Heppell

2009
7 Brad Sheppard
8 John Butcher
2008
7 Daniel Rich
8 Ty Vickery
2007
7 Rhys Palmer
8 Lachlan Henderson
2006
7 Joel Selwood
8 Ben Reid

2005
7 Patrick Ryder
8 Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls
2004
7 Jordan Lewis
8 John Meesen
2003
7 Kane Tenace
8 Raphael Clarke
2002
7 Andrew Mackie
8 Luke Brennan


There are some very good players in there, but I think only 3 times in 15 years I would prefer the two players taken over one A grade mid like Kelly. 3 years look to be complete busts also.


Great post!

7 and 8 out for Kelly in a heart beat. With second rounder coming back it's even more weighted our way. Draft is a gamble, sometimes you draft, sometimes you trade.


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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1694143Post saintspremiers »

Spinner you make an excellent point re injuries that many gloss over. Two years in a row with a very small injury list and still we are struggling. Also not a lot of suspensions. God help us if we got injury runs like many clubs do - we'd be bottom 4!


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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1694150Post desertsaint »

if picks 7 & 8 would get Kelly who wouldn't jump on it? no brainer.


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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1694673Post Gordo' »

a new fox report???

about flowering time!!! ffs mate, it's been way too flowering long between your gigs! :D


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bigred
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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1694678Post bigred »

Kelly.


"Now the ball is loose, it gives St. Kilda a rough chance. Black. Good handpass. Voss. Schwarze now, the defender, can run and from a long way".....
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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1695222Post AeonFlux »

Roger! You're back!

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And back with a signature Rodger Fox 'outside the box thinking' post! Which in response, has rightfully generated some very thoughtful discussion.

All proof that you're no johnny come lately. Just as I remember, you know your stuff. :D


ReMembering:
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----- Rodger ------- Nymeria ------- BakesFan ----------- Aaron
HarryM wrote: Nope never heard of them :roll:
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Re: The Fox Report - Round 21

Post: # 1695232Post saintspremiers »

SuperDuper wrote:Kelly easily worth picks 7 and 8.

As for trading down two pick 1.... stick with 7 and 8.
We had the chance to do th eopposite in 2014 and we should have... Not bagging McCartin, but we could have hadtwo of Wright, Marchbank, Lever, Duggan, Laverde.
From our draft board that year it looks like we would have Wright and Laverde (struggled with injury this year but will be good)
Had we done that trade, Paddy would've been available at pick 3 and we would've still got him!


i am Melbourne Skies - sometimes Blue Skies, Grey Skies, even Partly Cloudy Skies.
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