Still concerned

[Sainter_Dad]

With North coming off a bye - and possibly sluggish for the first half - that last quarter was very concerning for me - it was not a case of us putting the cue in the rack after being 100 points up - we could have let that game slip and if North were a better team, we would have.

Friday nights game was far from convincing - we won it in the first - but we rarely get off to a flyer

I do not hold high hopes for a win next week - we are just too fragile at the moment!

[Johnny Member]

With North coming off a bye - and possibly sluggish for the first half - that last quarter was very concerning for me - it was not a case of us putting the cue in the rack after being 100 points up - we could have let that game slip and if North were a better team, we would have.

Friday nights game was far from convincing - we won it in the first - but we rarely get off to a flyer

I do not hold high hopes for a win next week - we are just too fragile at the moment!

I felt the same at one point, then I turned the volume down. Suddenly, without 4 commentators attempting to drum up some excitement about the game, it was clear that we were dominating them and were well and truly in control.

By the time the commentators starting trying to convinced the viewers that North were coming at us, we'd doubled their shots at goal. THey didn't mention that once.


We weren't great. But we'd absolutely dominated them. Missed goals aside, it was a genuine thumping.


So basically, we did what we had to do. We beat a team that we're better than and that we should have beaten.


Nothing more, nothing less.

We're still not good enough to worry any of the good teams at the business end of the season. Friday's game didn't change that fact one way or the other.

[Myron Gaines]

Cunnington & Ziebel got on top...mainly cos Stevens hurt his shoulder/ribs & Dunstan his calf.

[carn_sainter]

The roos are 16th or something and we kicked 12 goals. Plenty to be concerned about unfortunately

[WellardSaint]

We need to close out games when we're that far ahead.
They kicked 5 of the last 6 goals I think.

We let them run lose with no pressure and nobody going with them.

Were our guys just chasing kicks and not bothering to cover a man?

[longtimesaint]

We need to close out games when we're that far ahead.
They kicked 5 of the last 6 goals I think.

We let them run lose with no pressure and nobody going with them.

Were our guys just chasing kicks and not bothering to cover a man?

MAV on Channel 9 show said they ran out of gas.
I think they put a lot of pressure and hard tackling in the first three quarters and ran out of legs.
It would have been better if we had kicked three or four of the easy ones we missed.

[Sainter_Dad]

That's the point - we spent our fuel tickets early, and are subject to being over-run - The Suns are full of run - and unless we get better - we may not even be in with a chance next week - I am concerned.

Surely we cannot think that flat out for three quarters and no run in the last is a winning formula????

[WellardSaint]

We need to close out games when we're that far ahead.
They kicked 5 of the last 6 goals I think.

We let them run lose with no pressure and nobody going with them.

Were our guys just chasing kicks and not bothering to cover a man?

MAV on Channel 9 show said they ran out of gas.
I think they put a lot of pressure and hard tackling in the first three quarters and ran out of legs.
It would have been better if we had kicked three or four of the easy ones we missed.

I saw him on TV too.
Not a reason, but a p1ss-poor excuse
He's had 100 games to learn how to run out a game. He spent 31% of the game on the bench.
A lot of our guys know how long a game goes for as well.

[Impatient Sainter]

Its obviously a taxing game plan as too often the team hits a wall during games. Obviously they will get better as the team gets stronger but our midfield is still our weakest link and have to play above themselves to be competitive with the stronger teams.

[older saint]

The firs t3 qtrs were impressive , except for the goal kicking. 3rd qtr we kicked 1.7 off memory and should have been 6.2. We do that and game is 10 or 11 goals at 3/4 time. Also impressive was team defence in keeping North to 4 goals by 3/4 time.

Goal kicking has been a real issue this season. Cost us WC game, almost the Brisbane game and meant North were closer than should be. Percentage this season is more important than ever and may come back to bite.

That said IF this team is a finals team they should win the next 4 or at worst 3 of - GC, Free, Rich, Ess

[Toy Saint]

Yeah, life really sucks....we had a bad win on Friday night, and I had to drink bad beer...and had bad sex....bummer...

[Junior]

Running out of gas is unprofessional, the fitness staff would no how taxing our game plan is and we should be fit enough to carry it out.

Maybe we could rotate more through the midfield then to freshen players up.

I would think the number one criteria of the fitness staff is to ensure that our players are fit enough to run out the game playing our game plan. We are not young a side to not be able to run out a game.

[saintspremiers]

Ran out of gas?

Shyte we are farked then for the rest of the season if that's the case a week after the bye and after a full 7 daybreak.

[meher baba]

Running out of gas is directly related to our inability to take enough of our chances in front of goal.

Nowadays, teams that find themselves down on the scoreboard and in key contests around the ground during the first quarter try to slow the game down, put more players behind the ball, and conserve energy until after half time. They hope to limit the damage to being no more 4-5 goals behind. Then, if they can get 2 or 3 back in the third quarter, they might be able to run over the top in the last. It requires a bit of luck: some helpful free kicks, perhaps an injury to one of the opposing team. But it's better than just continuing to do what you've been doing and falling further and further behind.

This last weekend, the Swans executed this tactic to perfection against the Tigers. Despite being beaten all around the ground, they kept the deficit to 4-1 at half time and then clawed back a net two goals in Q3, and then got home by the skin of their teeth in Q4. The Gold Coast - helped by Carlton blowing quite a few easy shots on goal - almost pulled off the same feat.

Melbourne, on the other hand, got to a lead and shut the Dogs right out of it: putting the contest beyond doubt in Q3 with a haul of 6-1. Meanwhile, against the Roos, we managed a reverse outcome of 1-7 in Q3: several of our misses being relatively easy shots (as were a couple in the first half too).

We were further ahead of the Roos at half time than the Demons were ahead of the Dogs. But our inability to convert chances into goals kept the Roos in it, which encouraged them to keep trying. This meant that we had no opportunity to take our foot off the pedal at any point, and, not surprisingly, we ran out of puff in the last quarter.

In modern footy, when your hard work has given you an edge on your opponents, you need to convert that edge into lots of goals. When a losing team gets some momentum going in the second half of games, they can score plenty of points very quickly and come right back into the game. We see it almost every week.

[Beno88]

Running out of gas is directly related to our inability to take enough of our chances in front of goal.

Spot on. Our accuracy is at 46.8%. That is now the worst in the comp. And it's not improving.

We average 26 shots at goal per game for just 12 goals. Our opposition average 24 shots for 13 goals. We are giving away nearly 9% accuracy per game.

Our most accurate effort this year was against GWS, 57.1%. Five times our opposition have kicked at over 60%. Four of those five we have lost.

We've been outscored by a total of 55 points this year. If we kicked at even 50% accuracy (which is still below league average), we'd turn that around to the tune of ten goals! We'd be in the positive.

As a result, we run out of puff before the score is on the board.

In first halves we've outscored our opposition by 18 points (1.5 pts per game).

In second halves we've been outscored by 73 points (6.1 pts per game).

A fifteen goal swing from half to half.

[carn_sainter]

Running out of gas is directly related to our inability to take enough of our chances in front of goal.

Spot on. Our accuracy is at 46.8%. That is now the worst in the comp. And it's not improving.

Both very good posts

[Saints43]

Yeah, life really sucks....we had a bad win on Friday night, and I had to drink bad beer...and had bad sex....bummer...

Probably too much information about the sex...

[bigcarl]

Running out of gas is directly related to our inability to take enough of our chances in front of goal.

Spot on. Our accuracy is at 46.8%. That is now the worst in the comp. And it's not improving.

We average 26 shots at goal per game for just 12 goals. Our opposition average 24 shots for 13 goals. We are giving away nearly 9% accuracy per game.

Our most accurate effort this year was against GWS, 57.1%. Five times our opposition have kicked at over 60%. Four of those five we have lost.

We've been outscored by a total of 55 points this year. If we kicked at even 50% accuracy (which is still below league average), we'd turn that around to the tune of ten goals! We'd be in the positive.

As a result, we run out of puff before the score is on the board.

In first halves we've outscored our opposition by 18 points (1.5 pts per game).

In second halves we've been outscored by 73 points (6.1 pts per game).

A fifteen goal swing from half to half.

Very good post that shows how vital it is to convert opportunities. The value of kicking set shots in particular cannot be overstated.

[minneapolis]

Yeah, life really sucks....we had a bad win on Friday night, and I had to drink bad beer...and had bad sex....bummer...

Probably too much information about the sex...

Sex by yourself is not that bad. At least I think so.

[bigred]

Didn't see a damn thing that changed my opinion on this side/gameplan/excecution.

Putrid game. Putrid finishing.

Last quarter was an abomination.

Worst goalkicking in the comp is just the icing on the cake. Less than a 50% chance every time.

So far off the bandwagon it is fkn heartbreaking.

[meher baba]

Yeah, life really sucks....we had a bad win on Friday night, and I had to drink bad beer...and had bad sex....bummer...

Probably too much information about the sex...

Sex by yourself is not that bad. At least I think so.

When you get to my age, there's really only two sorts of sex: good and fantastic. (And, I should add, I'm not boasting about performance, but reflecting on availability).

[meher baba]

Didn't see a damn thing that changed my opinion on this side/gameplan/excecution.

Putrid game. Putrid finishing.

Last quarter was an abomination.

Worst goalkicking in the comp is just the icing on the cake. Less than a 50% chance every time.

So far off the bandwagon it is fkn heartbreaking.

Maybe I'm too much of a glass half full sort of guy, but - and this is the point I was trying to make earlier - I reckon the forward line in general and the goalkicking in particular are the only significant things that are wrong at the moment.

In the majority of games I've watched this season, we were strong in the clearances, strong in defence (Carlisle and Brown making a real difference, as does Webster in his 2017 incarnation), better than most at hindering sides generating forward surges out of their defensive 50, and pretty good at getting the ball forward.

Yes, we could bomb it to the goal square a little less. Yes, our kicking in general play isn't as good as that of some of rivals. Yes, a few players - Membrey, Joey, Mav, Dunstan all come to mind - are performing less well than last year and/or are perhaps on the way out.

But Beno88's stats speak for themselves. If we had kicked for goal in our losing games with even 85% of the accuracy of our opponents, we'd probably be in the top 4. In the one major game in which we did kick with the accuracy of one of the top teams - against the GWS - almost every AFL pundit was immediately talking about us as a top 4 prospect this season.

Most of the team is doing the right things most of the time, and are being let down again and again by those who have the responsibility for converting dominance on the ground into points on the scoreboard. Either we've got the wrong people playing up front, or the ones we have aren't performing up to their potential. I think it's pretty obvious that the answer is a combination of both these things.

[Beno88]

The value of kicking set shots in particular cannot be overstated.

And culprits are...

Minimum of five shots on goal

Sinclair 1.4 - 20.0%
Lonie 3.7 - 30.0%
Weller 8.16 - 33.3%
Ross 3.6 - 33.3%
McCartin 5.8 - 38.5%
Steele 2.3 - 40.0%
Newnes 3.4 - 42.8%
Billings - 13.17 - 43.3%
Gresham - 15.16 - 48.4%


We only have six players converting above the league average of 53% (who've had five or more shots).

Roberton 5.4 - 55.5%
Stevens 3.2 - 60.0%
Membrey 17.11 - 60.7%
Bruce 19.10 - 65.5%
Riewoldt 17.7 - 70.9%
Acres 8.2 - 80.0%


Between our three main pressure forwards (Billings, Weller, Gresham) they've kicked 36.49 - 42.3%.

Whereas our three main talls (Bruce, Membrey, Riewoldt) have kicked 53.28 - 65.4%.

So from 4 less shots, the talls have kicked 17 more goals. The problem lies with the smalls. Especially if you add Lonie and Sinclair.

[saintspremiers]

Beno - please stop wasting your time on this forum and tell AFL360 they need you as an analyst so I've got something decent to watch.

[meher baba]

The value of kicking set shots in particular cannot be overstated.

And culprits are...

Minimum of five shots on goal

Sinclair 1.4 - 20.0%
Lonie 3.7 - 30.0%
Weller 8.16 - 33.3%
Ross 3.6 - 33.3%
McCartin 5.8 - 38.5%
Steele 2.3 - 40.0%
Newnes 3.4 - 42.8%
Billings - 13.17 - 43.3%
Gresham - 15.16 - 48.4%


We only have six players converting above the league average of 53% (who've had five or more shots).

Roberton 5.4 - 55.5%
Stevens 3.2 - 60.0%
Membrey 17.11 - 60.7%
Bruce 19.10 - 65.5%
Riewoldt 17.7 - 70.9%
Acres 8.2 - 80.0%


Between our three main pressure forwards (Billings, Weller, Gresham) they've kicked 36.49 - 42.3%.

Whereas our three main talls (Bruce, Membrey, Riewoldt) have kicked 53.28 - 65.4%.

So from 4 less shots, the talls have kicked 17 more goals. The problem lies with the smalls. Especially if you add Lonie and Sinclair.

You also need to look at the productivity dimension. Inaccurate though they might be, Billings and Gresham are getting themselves an average of 2.5 opportunities per game, which is better than the "tall" (he isn't really one) Membrey. Minchington and Lonie - specialist forwards as far as I can see - have played 10 games between them for an average of 1.8 shots (and have converted less than 50 per cent of them).

Sinclair wouldn't be expected to kick lots of goals. His stats aren't great, but he kicked an important one on Friday after a number of his teammates missed.

McCartin's figures are disappointing. He might still be learning his trade in terms of position play, but he should surely have his goalkicking technique worked out by now.

Sadly, on all these stats, Nick R is still our most effective forward by a significant margin.