This 'bomb it to the hot spot' nonsense must end now!

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Re: This 'bomb it to the hot spot' nonsense must end now!

Postby meher baba » Sat 17 Jun 2017 12:25pm

To add to my last post: our forward line has been led for so long by a player who is an all-time great at getting away from his opponent, but a pretty ordinary shot at goal. Defenders have consistently worked on pushing him as wide as possible, knowing that he is unlikely to punish them consistently from there.

Bombing the ball to the square is an ok tactic if 1) it is done quickly before the defence is fully set and 2) you have the forward power to mark the ball sometimes and to crumb goals when the ball is not marked. You'll end up with fewer possessions inside the 50, but there's a chance that more of them will count on the scoreboard.

At the moment, Bruce and Billings are our only forwards who look comfortable taking a set shot on an angle. Before them, we really only had Schneider. And Gehrig and Kosi (and, to a lesser extent, Big Boy Mac) were our last players who looked truly dangerous in the square. We have long been underpowered up front: depending largely on the less than fully dependable Roo.

It's why getting McCartin going properly is so crucial.
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Re: This 'bomb it to the hot spot' nonsense must end now!

Postby Johnny Member » Sat 17 Jun 2017 12:50pm

Con Gorozidis wrote:Much higher kick to handball ratio last night.
We tried to move fwd to fwds who were at worst one on one.


Moving it is one thing (ie. kick to handball ratio etc.) - but that last kick into the F50 is the issue I'm talking about.

It was far, far better last night.


30 shots at goal is a decent output. We'd had 24 at 3/4 time.

In the past 4 games since the GWS match, at 3/4 time out shots at goal have been:

17-12-10-13


I've used the 3/4 time figures because these games were all over by then and we had some 'junk time' shots late in the last quarter.
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Re: This 'bomb it to the hot spot' nonsense must end now!

Postby The Fireman » Sat 17 Jun 2017 12:52pm

Con Gorozidis wrote:Our handball to kick ratio is WAAAAAAY TOO HIGH

Atrocious.
. I think you'll find most teams in the same boat
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Re: This 'bomb it to the hot spot' nonsense must end now!

Postby saintsRrising » Sat 17 Jun 2017 1:53pm

meher baba wrote:To add to my last post: our forward line has been led for so long by a player who is an all-time great at getting away from his opponent, but a pretty ordinary shot at goal..


Compared to whom? Roo's accuracy actually stands up pretty well when compared to other key forwards, and has in recent years become better than many.

Roo has kicked 750 goals 450 behinds over his career= 62.5%

In his last 4 seasons he has kicked 136 goals 67 behinds, = 67%

Other long lived key forwards:
Kennedy 484/271 = 64.1%
Hawkins 417/216 = 65.9%
Buddy 822/583 = 58.5%
Walker 334/224 = 59.9%

Yes they will try and push Roo wide, but any defense that knows what it is doing will try and push any key forward wide if they can. It is a good tactic and not one exclusively aimed at Roo.
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Re: This 'bomb it to the hot spot' nonsense must end now!

Postby remboy » Sat 17 Jun 2017 2:01pm

The Fireman wrote:
Con Gorozidis wrote:Our handball to kick ratio is WAAAAAAY TOO HIGH

Atrocious.
. I think you'll find most teams in the same boat


Actually North's was much higher than ours last night.
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Re: This 'bomb it to the hot spot' nonsense must end now!

Postby Johnny Member » Sat 17 Jun 2017 2:15pm

meher baba wrote:To add to my last post: our forward line has been led for so long by a player who is an all-time great at getting away from his opponent, but a pretty ordinary shot at goal. Defenders have consistently worked on pushing him as wide as possible, knowing that he is unlikely to punish them consistently from there.

Bombing the ball to the square is an ok tactic if 1) it is done quickly before the defence is fully set and 2) you have the forward power to mark the ball sometimes and to crumb goals when the ball is not marked. You'll end up with fewer possessions inside the 50, but there's a chance that more of them will count on the scoreboard.

At the moment, Bruce and Billings are our only forwards who look comfortable taking a set shot on an angle. Before them, we really only had Schneider. And Gehrig and Kosi (and, to a lesser extent, Big Boy Mac) were our last players who looked truly dangerous in the square. We have long been underpowered up front: depending largely on the less than fully dependable Roo.

It's why getting McCartin going properly is so crucial.


The concept of kicking to a forward straight in front of goal about 20m out is obviously ideal.

But the issue is that defenders line up in that spot to spoil, and small defenders line up in that space to get the ground ball. Teams train to score from that point in their D50.

Kicking deep to forwards in the pocket isn't ideal either, for the reasons you've mentioned above.


The ideal scenario is to kick it to a bloke in the best situation at the particular time. Obviously. The worst situation is to give your opponents the ball in the corridor.

And that's the problem!

We've been ignoring the 'best situation' and kicking to the hot spot every time regardless. It's not only ineffective as we're almost always outnumbered in the air and on the ground in that spot (because the opposition knows that that's where the ball is going), and as a result it also gives them possession.


As I've said, using it as a 'get out' is fine. You want to be predictable to your own teammates. But if you have time to make a decision, unless you have a freak mismatch in the goal square - it should the last option you take.
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Re: This 'bomb it to the hot spot' nonsense must end now!

Postby Johnny Member » Sat 17 Jun 2017 2:28pm

Con Gorozidis wrote:Our handball to kick ratio is WAAAAAAY TOO HIGH

Atrocious.


I don't think that that stat means much to be honest.


We had 56 I50s and scored 50% of the time we went in there. Doesn't matter whether you stuff the ball down the front of your undies and run it in there - we got it in there and scored every second time we did.

Our Average is 50 I50s. North's is 53 and we held them to 50. So whatever we did last night, it was effective. We prevented them from going I50 more than they usually do, and we made it I50 more than we usually do. If we had to handball a lot to do it, then so be it.

If a team is locking you in your D50, it doesn't matter how you get it out of there, whether by handballing 20 times to find a free player, or kicking it once - as long as you clear it it doesn't matter if you ask me.


We also took 14 Marks I50, we held North to 10. Our Average is 12.6, theirs is 12.7.

We had 9 Goal Assists last night, and our average is 7.7 - the 3rd worst in the comp. Had we kicked straighter, we'd have had about 15.


So whatever we did last night, it was effective. And to be honest, had we kicked straight, we'd have probably won by 100 points.


I thought it was actually a pretty good game by us both on the field and in the box.
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Re: This 'bomb it to the hot spot' nonsense must end now!

Postby meher baba » Sat 17 Jun 2017 5:34pm

Johnny Member wrote:And that's the problem! We've been ignoring the 'best situation' and kicking to the hot spot every time regardless. It's not only ineffective as we're almost always outnumbered in the air and on the ground in that spot (because the opposition knows that that's where the ball is going), and as a result it also gives them possession.
As I've said, using it as a 'get out' is fine. You want to be predictable to your own teammates. But if you have time to make a decision, unless you have a freak mismatch in the goal square - it should the last option you take.


I still can't see that it is as much as a problem as you say. All teams do it quite frequently. After a team passes the ball a number of times between 75 and 50 metres out, the defence has been able to cover all of the attacking players and, as you can't stand with the ball in your hands forever, the only things to do are either to kick the ball backwards (which typically doesn't achieve a great deal) or kick it forward to a contest. And, in that situation, a contest in the goal square is the best option: if things go well, you get a goal. If they go badly, you've got a reasonable chance of scoring a behind, and then having the chance to set your defence for the kick in.

And kicking the ball quickly into the goal square when you are moving quickly out of the centre or from defence can create favourable contests. Of course, bombing the ball without looking what's in front of you is a terrible idea: but it's a terrible idea wherever your kick is directed.

I have just finished watching the excellent Tigers vs Swans game, and saw plenty of bombing to the goal square from both sides. And, yes, there was also a lot of kicking to guys in a better position. Of course, unlike us, both teams had one or more guys capable of kicking a goal on from outside 50 on an angle, which gives them a greater range of options.
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Re: This 'bomb it to the hot spot' nonsense must end now!

Postby meher baba » Sat 17 Jun 2017 5:48pm

saintsRrising wrote:
meher baba wrote:To add to my last post: our forward line has been led for so long by a player who is an all-time great at getting away from his opponent, but a pretty ordinary shot at goal..


Compared to whom?


To the guys who play for the premiership-winning sides. Statistics are only part of the story: if you're a good forward and you play enough games, you'll kick a lot of goals in one-sided contests. The key question is whether you can take your opportunities in the big games at the crucial moments.

In the big games, at the moment when it really counts, Nick has been an unreliable goalkicker even from 30 metres out dead in front. The reason has always been obvious: he runs himself into the ground and he can't really get settled in front of the sticks.
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Re: This 'bomb it to the hot spot' nonsense must end now!

Postby Johnny Member » Sat 17 Jun 2017 6:48pm

meher baba wrote:
Johnny Member wrote:And that's the problem! We've been ignoring the 'best situation' and kicking to the hot spot every time regardless. It's not only ineffective as we're almost always outnumbered in the air and on the ground in that spot (because the opposition knows that that's where the ball is going), and as a result it also gives them possession.
As I've said, using it as a 'get out' is fine. You want to be predictable to your own teammates. But if you have time to make a decision, unless you have a freak mismatch in the goal square - it should the last option you take.


I still can't see that it is as much as a problem as you say. All teams do it quite frequently. After a team passes the ball a number of times between 75 and 50 metres out, the defence has been able to cover all of the attacking players and, as you can't stand with the ball in your hands forever, the only things to do are either to kick the ball backwards (which typically doesn't achieve a great deal) or kick it forward to a contest. And, in that situation, a contest in the goal square is the best option: if things go well, you get a goal. If they go badly, you've got a reasonable chance of scoring a behind, and then having the chance to set your defence for the kick in.

And kicking the ball quickly into the goal square when you are moving quickly out of the centre or from defence can create favourable contests. Of course, bombing the ball without looking what's in front of you is a terrible idea: but it's a terrible idea wherever your kick is directed.

I have just finished watching the excellent Tigers vs Swans game, and saw plenty of bombing to the goal square from both sides. And, yes, there was also a lot of kicking to guys in a better position. Of course, unlike us, both teams had one or more guys capable of kicking a goal on from outside 50 on an angle, which gives them a greater range of options.


Case in point.

48 I50s to 55 - with scores of 71 to 80! Only 42 scoring shots between them. Unacceptable.

We were average last night, and North were terrible - but we generated 50 shots on goal between us from the same amount of entries.
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Re: This 'bomb it to the hot spot' nonsense must end now!

Postby skeptic » Sat 17 Jun 2017 9:36pm

Surely the obvious point here is that its obviously the result of:
A) a midfield that doesn't have the skill to hit players up as well as they should
B) a team that lacks the systems to create space and present somethings for our mids to kick to
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Re: This 'bomb it to the hot spot' nonsense must end now!

Postby Johnny Member » Sun 18 Jun 2017 10:15am

skeptic wrote:Surely the obvious point here is that its obviously the result of:
A) a midfield that doesn't have the skill to hit players up as well as they should
B) a team that lacks the systems to create space and present somethings for our mids to kick to


I don't think so.

I think it's been a directive from the box.
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Re: This 'bomb it to the hot spot' nonsense must end now!

Postby perfectionist » Sun 18 Jun 2017 10:50am

meher baba wrote:...Nick has been an unreliable goalkicker even from 30 metres out dead in front. The reason has always been obvious: he runs himself into the ground and he can't really get settled in front of the sticks.

I don't think that's the reason. The reason he, and others, miss these goals is because they kick the ball in the wrong direction. The law of conservation of momentum plus the action of a pendulum should show players what to do. It is very rare that a ball "goes off the side of a boot". When I watch a player shooting for goal, I watch his leg swing. You can tell at the moment the foot strikes the ball where the ball is heading. If the leg swing is aimed at the centre of the goal line, and the ball is struck with force, it will be a goal. This is much more certain today than it was in the past when wind was a factor. Three players of note: Peter Hudson, Peter McKenna and Tony Lockett - all had a straight leg swing by which I mean, was aimed at the centre of the goal line. They were also able to bend sufficiently to almost "place" the ball on their foot. This is a matter of physical build, and really not something that Nick can do. But I don't think it is necessary. Look at the way he has a shot from the boundary - either foot. He is about a 90% chance there and looks as though he is confident.
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Re: This 'bomb it to the hot spot' nonsense must end now!

Postby Johnny Member » Fri 14 Jul 2017 10:53pm

Back to old habits it seems!
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Re: This 'bomb it to the hot spot' nonsense must end now!

Postby SaintPav » Sat 15 Jul 2017 12:14am

Johnny Member wrote:Back to old habits it seems!


We were on the back foot for most of the night; hardly ever controlled the play which didn't help at all.
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Re: This 'bomb it to the hot spot' nonsense must end now!

Postby Enrico_Misso » Sat 15 Jul 2017 1:50am

The Druggies were employing a new game plan tonight.
They moved the ball quickly and kicked or hand balled to free players.

It seemed to work quite well.

Perhaps we should change our game plan away from moving the ball sideways and then kicking to a 1-2 contest, or kicking to a heavily populated hotspot, or kicking direct to an opponent, or hand balling to a man under intense pressure?
(Just a silly left field thought).
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Re: This 'bomb it to the hot spot' nonsense must end now!

Postby Johnny Member » Sat 15 Jul 2017 9:33pm

GWS doing the 'bomb it in long' thing too. And guess what? Even with their freak talent - it still doesn't work.

27 Inside 50s for 24 points.
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