Improve accuracy, improve season

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Improve accuracy, improve season

Postby shrodes » Fri 19 May 2017 10:25am

Interesting article today about the Saints in front of goal (and how well we defend)

http://figuringfooty.com/2017/05/18/are ... ing-giant/

The one thing that is letting them down is their splotchy conversion from anywhere further than about 30m out. If they had kicked at AFL average, they would have kicked an extra 44 points over the 8 matches.


St Kilda have defended their "close in, directly in front" corridor well so far. However, their opponents have converted at a much better rate than average given their opportunities. Opposition sides have kicked 42 points more than the average side would be expected to given the types of shot taken and the locations these shots have been taken from. Often in this case you could make the argument that not enough pressure is being put on the goalkicker, leading them to kick straighter than they otherwise would. This breaks down when you consider opposition forwards are considerably outperforming their expectation from set-shots as well as snaps and other open-play shots. Given time this will change.
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Re: Improve accuracy, improve season

Postby spiral3 » Fri 19 May 2017 1:33pm

what an interesting site, thanks for the link!
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Re: Improve accuracy, improve season

Postby dals_da_bomb » Fri 19 May 2017 2:03pm

I saw this last night on FB. Loved it.
Well written and took me all the way to the end.
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Re: Improve accuracy, improve season

Postby meher baba » Fri 19 May 2017 2:31pm

I'm not sure about the theory that we don't put enough pressure on goalkickers. I've seen no evidence of this.

I suspect that the high conversion rate of chances by our opponents, particularly in the first few rounds, was mainly a consequence of our inaccuracy in front of goal. It's always seemed to me that, when a team dominates its opponent in general play, but fails to make a major impression on the scoreboard, their opponents are somehow able to achieve an almost superhuman level of accuracy with their limited chances. I'm not quite sure why this is: possibly the sight of your opponents continually missing gimme shots at goal is a big confidence-booster.
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Re: Improve accuracy, improve season

Postby Sainter_Dad » Fri 19 May 2017 3:23pm

Maybe it is a result of the total 'frontal' pressure that we put, which enables us to repeatedly have shots, and if we do not score goals, then eventually the opposition gets it out, and it scoots down the other end for a 'less pressurised' shot on goal. If we do goal, then both teams get a chance to reset and we are there to apply the pressure should they get the clearance.

TLDR; Kick a goal, reset. Kick a point, coast to coast.
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Re: Improve accuracy, improve season

Postby Beno88 » Fri 19 May 2017 3:25pm

I have one theory on this season, if we kick 13 goals, we lose. If we don't, we win. 100% record so far.
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Re: Improve accuracy, improve season

Postby Sainter_Dad » Fri 19 May 2017 3:26pm

Beno88 wrote:I have one theory on this season, if we kick 13 goals, we lose. If we don't, we win. 100% record so far.


Holy Crap - you are right!!!! 13 is our unlucky number in 2017 so far this year!

COLL v STK 9 15 Win
STK v CARL 12 13 Win

STK v GEEL 13 10 Loss
STK v MELB 13 12 Loss
WCE v STK 13 19 Loss

STK v BL 14 23 Win
STK v GWS 16 12 Win
HAW v STK 19 16 Win


So what if we kick 12b goals????
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Re: Improve accuracy, improve season

Postby perfectionist » Fri 19 May 2017 3:48pm

Sainter_Dad wrote:So what if we kick 12b goals????

Usually 12A around where I live.
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Re: Improve accuracy, improve season

Postby Dave McNamara » Fri 19 May 2017 5:47pm

Very interesting link. Thank you Shrodes . :)

After eight rounds:
- We've outscored our collective opposition by 6 goals 31 behinds(!) That's close enough to five extra scoring shots per game.
- We're ahead in overall inside 50's, and have 'won' the inside 50's in nearly every game.
- Our midfield is getting on top, and winning the clearances, especially of late.


Clearly the foundations are firmly in place. Now..., just imagine adding to this...
- Cleaner finishing (both re inside 50 delivery, and when kicking on goal).
- A couple of (or quite possibly three) real class pick-ups through FA and trading during this upcoming draft period.


We 're now at the stage of our rebuild where we can steal a flag this year.
At this year's drafting/trading period, make the most of the opportunities we've crafted - and we'll be winning, not just hoping to steal, flags.

Exciting times Saintas!
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Re: Improve accuracy, improve season

Postby shrodes » Fri 19 May 2017 6:06pm

Sainter_Dad wrote:Maybe it is a result of the total 'frontal' pressure that we put, which enables us to repeatedly have shots, and if we do not score goals, then eventually the opposition gets it out, and it scoots down the other end for a 'less pressurised' shot on goal. If we do goal, then both teams get a chance to reset and we are there to apply the pressure should they get the clearance.

TLDR; Kick a goal, reset. Kick a point, coast to coast.


I had a similar thought actually. Because of how aggressive and quick our game is, when we turn it over it generally leads to pretty easy goals for the opposition as we have too many streaming towards goal.

Not sure I agree about us kicking behinds leading to that though. I would imagine we are one of the best sides at locking it in our forward line from opposition kick ins (I don't have stats to back that up however).
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Re: Improve accuracy, improve season

Postby Sainter_Dad » Fri 19 May 2017 8:21pm

shrodes wrote:
Sainter_Dad wrote:Maybe it is a result of the total 'frontal' pressure that we put, which enables us to repeatedly have shots, and if we do not score goals, then eventually the opposition gets it out, and it scoots down the other end for a 'less pressurised' shot on goal. If we do goal, then both teams get a chance to reset and we are there to apply the pressure should they get the clearance.

TLDR; Kick a goal, reset. Kick a point, coast to coast.


I had a similar thought actually. Because of how aggressive and quick our game is, when we turn it over it generally leads to pretty easy goals for the opposition as we have too many streaming towards goal.

Not sure I agree about us kicking behinds leading to that though. I would imagine we are one of the best sides at locking it in our forward line from opposition kick ins (I don't have stats to back that up however).


It is not the kicking of points that leads to us being opened up - but the fact that if we kick a succession of them we tend to drift in to keep it locked in thereby allowing our 'soft underbelly' to be exposed.
Kind of like we 'Rope a Dope' ourselves. If we kick goals, we all go back to our positions and start again.
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