Short Memories

[White Winmar]

I'm a little surprised by the pessimism and sense of doom and gloom that has descended on this sight after ONE loss. Yes, we were terrible in two quarters and failed to respond when the time came, but I think we might be falling for the old "round one" fallacy. That is that round one seems to throw up more anomalies than any other in the year. The reasons for this are numerous. New players, differing levels of fitness and conditioning, the unpredictability of an opponent's playing style, new tactics and game plans and the general excitement of the season starting after a long and frustrating preseason. All these physical and psychological factors go into making an incredibly complex mix. Just have a look at other results. Port thrashed Sydney in Sydney. That knocked a few out of the tipping competition, including me. Adelaide gave the premiership favourites a lesson, the Lions won, and the dopers put the dorks to the sword. Good weekend for the bookies.

It's interesting contrasting the hopes and assessments of posters, pundits, and the media from the preseason, with the feedback post game. From finalists to fools, in one fell swoop. LEt's have a look at what happened. The first quarter was as exciting as anything we've seen from this group. A 23 point win saw us poised to smash Melbourne. We ran, we swarmed, we spread and scored with relative ease. The defensive pressure we applied was as good as anything I've seen since early 2009. Surely victory was only a matter of time. The second quarter was not the disaster many thought it was. We still created plenty of chances but blew it in front of goal. We only had one fewer shots for goal than the Dees. They made theirs count. We didn't. The third quarter? That was the problem. We got smashed. Everywhere. That was the primary concern for me. We didn't have any answers, physically or tactically. I'll come back to that. We won the last quarter. True, the sting had gone out of the game, but at least we fought the game out in what were energy sapping conditions.

While Gawn dominated the hit outs and his physical presence was considerable, it was what happened when it hit the ground that was disappointing. That's where the intensity dropped off and they whisked the ball away repeatedly, almost as if it was uncontested. That can be remedied quickly and the contest was one of the areas we were very good last year. There was nothing wrong with our intensity in the JLT series, nor in the first quarter. The drop off was obviously psychological. Easier to fix than a deficiency in ability or strength. The same applies to tackling and cracking in around the contest. As for our lack of speed and spread, I don't buy it. When the will is there, we are capable. We just went to sleep. You only need to drop off by a few percent to be screwed in the modern game.

Individuals? Hickey was thrashed, pure and simple. Gawn obviously did his homework and reversed the two beatings he copped from Tom last year. This contest was the catalyst for their dominance. If you can clear away from the contest easily, the rest follows. Our defenders stood little chance in those circumstances. Hickey needs to be more physical, no doubt. Then again, Gawn is the AA ruckman for a reason and he showed why on Saturday. Maybe Billy would've been stronger in the ruck duels, but if you don't have a strong contest at the fall of the ball, then it doesn't really matter how many hit outs you get.

Billings? Started well. 15 touches in the first half had him on track for a great game. Second half wasted in the forward half, starved of opportunities. He'll be good. Dunstan? Had a crack, as always. Lost intensity after half-time and it showed. Armo? Many were excited by his fitness levels with hopes of a 2015 repeat on the cards. Maybe we overrate Armo, but his best is still good. Nowhere near his best on Saturday. Needs to lift quickly. His days may be numbered. Steven? Good under the circumstances. Jack was Jack. He'll play better, especially to a winning ruckman. Steele? Showed plenty. Good get. Gresham? Again showed us why he will be a gun. At 19 games, he is way ahead of schedule. The next Jack Steven with better disposal and goal sense. Ross? Had a bad one. Looked tired. A conditioning issue? Have we forgotten his breakout year already? The boy can play. Stick with him. Wright? Pace and hardness, but again, disposal is a problem. Like Bob the Builder, can he fix it? I hope he can.

The defence. Here is where we do have problems. The predictions of us lacking rebounding power are well founded. Geary, Gilbert, and Savage are too inconsistent with their disposal to hurt the opposition. When you throw in a pure stopper like Brown, it leaves us with Carlisle and Roberton. Robbo gets a pass, as does Jake, but if we are to challenge, Gilbert and Savage can't be retained. Geary has to be hidden in the field like the fat kid in cricket. I admire his determination and leadership skills, but his appointment as captain bewildered me. Yes, he had a good back half year in 2016, but it was when the team was on fire. When the team is not going well, he is exposed. His turnover 5-metre chip to Hogan 20 metres from goal was a case in point. Old habits never die, especially when the pressure is on, only on that occasion there was no pressure. Soul destroying to see the skipper do that. He does that far too often. I don't want to be a Geary basher because he's the skipper and he'll be picked every week, but I do worry about him in the pressure cooker of big games, especially finals. Take a look at the photo of the 18 captains in the HS during last week. He does not belong in that company as a player.

Forwards? They'll get better. A one off average effort, methinks. Bruce and Membrey haven't suddenly lost all of their ability. They need to adjust to greater opposition scrutiny and pressure, but I'm sure they're up to it. McCartin to return. A big bonus. Lonie? Prefer others at this stage. Needs more time at Sandy. Jury still out? Roo showed he's still our most dangerous forward. Sad, but true. What a blow it is to lose him. His loss robs both our midfield and forward structure. An opportunity for others to grow while he is out. Battle, Long, Sinclair and the meatball are all possibilities. Marshall is the wild card. He has shown plenty since being rookied. He may be the long term answer as a forward who can genuinely ruck. Lewie Peirce should not be forgotten either. There's still plenty of cause for optimism there.

So in the finest traditions of the empire, I believe we should remain calm and carry on. I'm not expecting miracles this week, but if we are 0-2 it's not the end of the world. The Lions and filth follow at Etihad, so we will have a chance to get back on track. I'm sure AR was furious on Saturday night and he and his lieutenants will be working overtime to work it out. I'm confident they can. Selection will be interesting. Give the same group a chance to redeem itself, or make wholesale changes? AR is not a panic merchant and likes to be conservative, so I can't imagine there'll be more than a couple of changes. Rooey out, of course, but other than that, there may be little change.

For the future, I think the bullet needs to be bitten. Gilbo and Savage out. McKenzie and Montagna in the short term. Both quick, good runners and far more reliable by foot. Acres must come in. Too talented to leave out. Why does AR persist with others and not him? Strange. McCartin must also come back. His bizarre management on the weekend was ridiculous. He needs to play. Period. He'll never improve at the rate we need him to at Sandy. It's his third year. He's a number one pick with a wealth of talent. If he was fit enough to play on Sunday, then he was right to go. What was going on there? Anyone know? It can't help his confidence.

Saturday was another reason I plumped for the chasing of Martin. What a difference he would make to our midfield. The cherry on top of the cake. Add in a couple of first rounders, or trade for a Kelly/Shiel and we are good to go. I still have high hopes for this year, not as a flag contender, but certainly as a finalist. We haven't suddenly lost our ability and promise. We had a bad couple of quarters. Yes, we looked shocking, but that was our worst. The first quarter showed us what we could do when we were "on". As you were, everyone. At ease. Carry on.

[iwantmeseats]

Were crap.
Improving...but crap.

[White Winmar]

We're crap, or we were crap, but improving? Carlton and Brisbane are pretty crappy. Winning twelve games in a season means you are anything but crap.

[saintsRrising]

. From finalists to fools, in one fell swoop..

Lets wind that back a bit first.

After a promising 2016 we hopped to be playing finals in 2017.

BUT:
- we know we have a tougher draw
- that other teams who did not make the 8 would seem to also be genuine chances of pushing up into the 8. ie Dees, Dons with their players back plus buoyed from 2 years boon of early draft picks giving them another artificial injection etc
- that while some of last years 8 look weaker North are the only ones that look fall out of 8 weaker. (Though we ccan only hope that the Hawks slide out too, thus boosting the value of our second first rounder).

So to go down against the Dees by playing fair dinkum for only one quarter out of four is a big blow.

I don't think we are crap by any means. But I want to be good enough to make the 8. I want to see many of our youngster taking the next step.


Let us hope that it was a one week aberration.

[White Winmar]

I'm sure it was, SR. The whole point of my post.

[iwantmeseats]

We're crap, or we were crap, but improving? Carlton and Brisbane are pretty crappy. Winning twelve games in a season means you are anything but crap.

Sorry, I meant we are crap.
Well ok, but we sure as hell would be in the next category above them.
They saints hype all pre season totally befuddled me. I just dont see it.

[stonecold]

I'm sure it was, SR. The whole point of my post.

Nice post, that's what it was!!!!!

[White Winmar]

Agree iws. The hype was a bit, ahem, hyperbolic. It will be a tough ask pushing into the eight this year, but we're as good a chance as any. Maybe I need to recalibrate my "crap" rating assessment tool. I suppose, in essence, any team that misses the finals could be considered to be crap.

[carn_sainter]

Thanks for the write-up, WW. I didn't get to see the game and this is the first thing I've seen on the forum that actually gives me some kind of idea of what happened, other than that the sky fell, the creek rose and Krakatoa re-erupted all in a couple of hours.

I would like to see Acres play off half-forward as a half-forward/wing. Lead-up target in front of Bruce, Membrey & McCartin, in that reverse order of closeness to goal.

The general consensus on here seems to be an obsession with getting a good running/ball-using half back...and it's true that we're not very well-equipped for such a player.

I'm a fan of McKenzie, and he could be good off of half-back. I rate Savage higher than most on here, but it is, for me, his disposal rather than his defending which is his main deficiency at the moment. We could sure use Austinn Jones again! I'm not a fan of Webster...he's as gutsy a player as there is in the comp but he falls over too much and his disposal isn't very good.

I wonder if Ben Long could learn the position? He's a tackling machine, maybe he can learn some defensive skills too? Otherwise we need a wingman to play behind the ball a little, like Newnes, though that is an outdated idea, to be so territorial in your player positioning, isn't it?

It's a long-seasons and we're by no means fated to carry that form into every game. The reason I was most annoyed about the loss is that, projecting an optimistic view forward, it might the 4 points that swings either Melbourne or us into 8th spot. Like the losses we had to North last year.

Good post. Thanks!

[WellardSaint]

Clint Jones was given games despite being a liability.
Gilbert is now the main liability, with Gears a close second.
If the club persists in playing guys who are seriously unskilled and lack composure,
I fear we will be like the 2016 Dockers.
Saturday against the West Coke will show whether this mob is a "mob" or intends to improve on last year

[BadRossco]

We may have been expecting to much this season. The only games I think we will go in favourite are Carlton, Brisbane and Gold Coast, both here, add another one or two turn ups that makes five wins which will give our recruiters another top five pick to squander.

[BigMart]

So,

We should be ok with that loss??

[White Winmar]

So,

We should be ok with that loss??

Not at all, BM. You'll note I've suggested a number of areas where we were deficient. I also opined as to who should go and who should come in. I'm anything but ok with it. The whole thing was as disturbing as it was gut - wrenching. A true 8 point game and a chance lost to give the Dee's a setback in the race for the eight. It's the same as any situation in life. Be disappointed with failure, but don't let emotion rule your strategy to rectify it.

There's been a lot of hand wringing, wailing and gnashing of teeth in the days since the loss. I was gutted as well. In the end, the coaching staff, who were considered geniuses at quarter time, but fools at full time, will no doubt work very hard to rectify things. In the end, it's happened and we're stuck with the reality of being in 13th place on the ladder. For now. Panic, and we'll compound mistakes. St.Kilda has done that too often in the past. Let's put it behind us and hope the players are already focusing on the task ahead.

[BigMart]

I think the coaches got some fundamentals wrong.... and sometimes you need to go away from your plan (footy rarely goes to plan anyway) and actually read the game

It's the difference between a match day coach and a week day coach. Preparation vs intuition

How we got exposed by a midfield sized defender, dictating terms on a marking forward is beyond me. Whatever our starting fwd structure starts... if a mid goes to a tall, we isolate that and go offensive, proactive and use it to YOUR advantage. Instead, we had our forward chasing a mid around on exit... just poor

[White Winmar]

Indeed it was. Let's hope the third quarter is the worst one we see for the year.

[Linton Lodger]

Good post WW, the restoration of reason & sanity was needed.

[SemperFidelis]

Very good, well considered post WW.

And I think our defence WILL improve. It is a big ask to slot in two new players (and not malleable newbies, but players with other clubs "baggage") and have the whole thing gel over a few JLT games. With Joey back the ship will steady, and there is some real talent amongst the newbies that will get a run as the season progresses.

[stonecold]

Very good, well considered post WW.

And I think our defence WILL improve. It is a big ask to slot in two new players (and not malleable newbies, but players with other clubs "baggage") and have the whole thing gel over a few JLT games. With Joey back the ship will steady, and there is some real talent amongst the newbies that will get a run as the season progresses.

Defence will improve no doubt, Jake will take time as will Brown, however I would not blame the back half too much, modern day footy relies on mid field and first use, this is where we struggle, as the coaching staff have identified and spoken about several times!!!!!

The problem is, we have two Tom Hickeys, the really good intense one and the non intense one, with no in-between game! Richo has often suggested this and thus he threatened to play Billy. Now I'm not bashing Tom, just staying he needs to bring his best effort for us to be competitive in the middle, no matter how good a midfielder you are, at some point you need first use!!!!!

[longtimesaint]

Very good, well considered post WW.

And I think our defence WILL improve. It is a big ask to slot in two new players (and not malleable newbies, but players with other clubs "baggage") and have the whole thing gel over a few JLT games. With Joey back the ship will steady, and there is some real talent amongst the newbies that will get a run as the season progresses.

Defence will improve no doubt, Jake will take time as will Brown, however I would not blame the back half too much, modern day footy relies on mid field and first use, this is where we struggle, as the coaching staff have identified and spoken about several times!!!!!

The problem is, we have two Tom Hickeys, the really good intense one and the intense one, with no in-between game! Richo has often suggested this and thus he threatened to play Billy. Now I'm not bashing Tom, just staying he needs to bring his best effort for us to be competitive in the middle, no matter how good a midfielder you are, at some point you need first use!!!!!

The fact that the ball was thrown up on Saturday instead of being bounced disadvantaged Hickey enormously.
Gawn could use his extra height and strength to dominate and give an armchair ride to their midfield.
If they abolished the bounce we would need to draft a monster to counter this.

[stonecold]

Tom might get a chance to improve against a WCE team without a decent Ruck, over to you Tommy or is it? Maybe Richo might make a statement and play Big Bill!!!!!

Id suggest Tom would want to bring his A-Game to training, as would a few others, just quietly, just remember though folks, it's only one game, baby and bathwater or both?????