Richo WILL be under pressure to make finals this year

[Bluthy]

Suck it up balls and goals because Richo will feel heat (by me anyway) if he can't get enough wins on the board to play finals. We missed finals by a bees dick last year. Improvement logically is making finals. Anything less is going backwards.

Already hearing everyone starting to trot their old-fashioned St Kilda defeatist, half-baked excuses out why we won't make finals:

It's a really, really tough draw - says who? Some punk at HS needing to fill up online space? You don't know how tough your draw is until you get an idea of the form line of all the teams. Who would have thought Freo would be so s***. By definition as you move up the ladder your draw becomes tougher. Doesn't mean you should go backwards. YOu beat who is in front of you and stop making exuses.

We're still to young - WTF on this? We are the 7th oldest list. http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-12-03/t ... -key-stats Dat exuse out da window

Don't have a proper "core" group - Richo has pumped a lot of games into Robbo, Weller, Hickey, Bruce, Webster, Savage, Ross, Geary, Newnes, Steven, Armo, & Dunstan. He's brought Carlisle, Brown, Stevens in. That is a strong, seasoned core group to go with the oldies playing well and the talented kids. Most clubs would be pumped to have that core.

Our talented young players don't have enough experience - injuries played a part but Richo also has to take responsibility for his approach which has been not blooding youth as much as he could preferring many older players as "guidance/support/big body protection" approach. Taking Schneider off the rookie list (as they decided he was well past his best) and then being played all year epitomised his approach. Now that could pay off if we win early. But if he plays his old pants backline, and we lose, then he must start copping heat for that approach.

We don't have elite players - Steven is elite, Armo close to it when at his best. Roo, one of the best CHF is still capable of kicking 9 goals in a game, Joey was rated in the top 10 defenders for his ball delivery. We have Paddy a number 1 pick and Billings no 3 already showing high level performances. Carlisle is highly rated. Richo has admitted that he now has the talent. #stoptheexuses

Don't have enough high picks - Again this is an approach that Richo and the football department took. They stacked the team with some bigger body guys like Weller, Savage, Delaney and played older guys like Schneider so we could bounce back up quicker and get more of a winning mentality. IF that pays off in the long run props to them. But we could have been much more experimental, youth orientated which would have almost certainly resulted in another couple of 1-3 picks on the books - a pick 1 onballer would have been very, very, very, very, very nice. Maybe the clever long game to play was to stay down longer?

Need another year to really gel - this is the oldest trick in the book that Richmond and Melbourne fell for. It will just happen - youth + time = finals and flags. Its a very dangerous psychological trap that can stop you really pushing and being hungry. You gotta make it happen and fight tooth and nail for that finals spot like its the last bit of food on earth. Because that is the attitude that also makes you win flags.

Don't really matter if we make finals - 9th is the worst place to get stuck. You miss out on incredibly valuable finals experience - so many of our list haven't played finals and need to understand what it takes so they can drive to get better. But you don't get the really high picks that Brisbane, Carlton jesus even Freo loaded up on. You are happy for Collingwood or Melbourne to get that experience and leap frog us!? That could be a experience/psychological advantage to them we never catch up on

#stoptheexuses #stopthedefeatism #weneedtoplayfinals

Anything less than finals this year is a failure. Won't be the end of the world or sacking Richo but call it what it is instead of trotting out tired excuses already waving a white flag before the season has started. Geelong are back playing prelims. Hawthorn have reloaded to go for yet another flag. That is the standard we as supporters should be pushing.

To much old-fashioned St Kilda defeatism is raising its ugly head with Saints supporters and it doesn't help our flag quest. We should set incredibly high standards for our club and coaches. Near enough is NOT good enough. Finals or death (thats maybe taking it a big far - finals or exteme disappointment maybe)

[BigMart]

#obvious

First and last time I'll use a hashtag

And feel stupid for doing so

[Bluthy]

#obvious

First and last time I'll use a hashtag

And feel stupid for doing so

Well not to quite a few here and other places. Any time Richo gets questioned even a bit they all start talking about the future "Its really about finals in 2018/19/20/2054) so whatever happens this year happens etc". I see that a lot.

We are already so far behind the ball with GWS we need to get our players a taste of finals to know the heights they need to scale. And if you can get your team into finals when your team is kind of in that mid-rung position, it shows you have the big game, long tasting tactical cleverness it takes to be one of the best AFL coaches.

Its much easier to get close to finals without a lot of clever tactics but just player development. Likewise when you a lot of seasoned talent it makes it much easier to make finals but you don't know if you have the tactical smarts - see Hardwick, Brad Scott, Hinkley etc. So its a great test of Richo's strategic abilities this year which is why I'm going to be watching very, very closely.

#hashtagsrule

[saintsRrising]

Already hearing everyone starting to trot their old-fashioned St Kilda defeatist, half-baked excuses out why we won't make finals:

Everyone?

You must hang out witha lot of negative people.

Most people that I converse with, and have also read have us, making the finals.

However make no mistake this will be the toughest year ever in the AFL for teams to make the 8. So it will not bea cakewalk. We have to pay well, very well, just to make the 8. Probably only the Blues and Brisbane are not genuine contenders to make the 8. Though I do expect the Tigers to struggle as well.

[spert]

AFL clubs are pretty impatient for success, and like any other coach, Richo needs to improve on last year's promising effort and can't sit back and allow us to just tread water.

Too many games were lost last year when the midfield had lapses and allowed the opposition back into games, and that is one big factor that needs to be fixed.

We almost got into the finals last year, and once you're in there it's a different ball game, and the players we have on the list have the ability to make an impact- just need get them to do it more consistently.

[BigMart]

You don't come anymore pessimistic about StK than me, and rightly so imo given our inglorious history. Only 3.5 times have I thought we were in good hands.

This is one of those times. Perhaps the best? Because all the other times I felt their was still something poor within management

Alves
Not enough resources in all other football depts

GT
Coaching expertise & Conditioning expertise
Unpredictable admin

Lyon
Recruiting and development

Now with AR
Bains and Elshaug
Kingsley McPhee and Sexton - Experienced Coaching staff
Gilbee & McGlynn Development
Welsh, Hamill, Frawley specialist coaches
Stable admin

There is every chance we will do well

[shrodes]

We're still to young - WTF on this? We are the 7th oldest list. http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-12-03/t ... -key-stats Dat exuse out da window

I won't respond to all these points, but it should be noted that this is extremely misleading. From Reddit:




That's from 6 months ago, so not up to date with Chips leaving, but still mostly accurate. Our oldest players are well above league average, and our youngest players are below league average.

[saintspremiers]

Can you whack that data onto a bell curve? Would be easier to interpret

[BringBackMadDog]

OK I'll bite....
Firstly, the competition for spots in the 8 this year will be one of the hardest since the inception of the AFL and certainly since we have had 18 teams. There are at least 14 viable contenders for the 8 spots. In fact I think I can only really discount Brisbane and Carlton completely.

Secondly, last year we had the easiest draw of any team and we had a very good run with injuries compared to teams around us. This year the draw is much tougher and who knows what happens with injuries.

Richo will not be judged on whether we make the 8 or not, he will be judged on whether we continue to improve or not, also whether we show a lot more consistency in performance so that we are no getting belted when we lose especially interstate.

[mad saint guy]

I think we're under pressure to show improvement rather than make finals, and this year it's very possible that we improve but still only end up 9th-10th. The fact that our draw is a lot harder is not something to dismiss so quickly. Essendon last year was two (almost) guaranteed wins. We also had Carlton twice last year only once this year. Freo will be a much stronger side this year and Melbourne will continue to improve on a similar trajectory to us. If Gold Coast can get their midfield on the park then they are a finals-quality side as well. We're part of a glut of mid-range teams hoping to break into the eight this year but 2017 isn't make or break for Richo. As long as we continue to get a good effort from the team week in week out and we see improvement from the likes of Billings, McCartin, McKenzie, Acres etc then I think we're still on track even if we miss finals.

Realistically GWS, Bulldogs and Sydney are all locks for the top 8. Then it's very likely that Geelong, West Coast and Adelaide will also make it. Which leaves St Kilda, Hawthorn, Melbourne, Port, Gold Coast, Essendon, Fremantle, Collingwood and North fighting for the final 2 spots. I think we're a good chance at winning one of those spots but the footy world won't be putting too much pressure on Richo or the club if we are edged out by two of those teams and just miss finals this year.

[shrodes]

Can you whack that data onto a bell curve? Would be easier to interpret

Sure, I'm no data scientist though (I got the original images from Reddit). Here's up to date bell curve of our ages using ages from FootyWire.



Also games for good measure:



And the working copy if you want to play with numbers
https://www.dropbox.com/s/bnwtm792s6o2g ... .xlsx?dl=1

[Jacks Back]

[Wayne42]

That's it, if you barrack for the Saints it's a roller coaster ride.

[Bluthy]

You don't come anymore pessimistic about StK than me, and rightly so imo given our inglorious history. Only 3.5 times have I thought we were in good hands.

This is one of those times. Perhaps the best? Because all the other times I felt their was still something poor within management

Alves
Not enough resources in all other football depts

GT
Coaching expertise & Conditioning expertise
Unpredictable admin

Lyon
Recruiting and development

Now with AR
Bains and Elshaug
Kingsley McPhee and Sexton - Experienced Coaching staff
Gilbee & McGlynn Development
Welsh, Hamill, Frawley specialist coaches
Stable admin

There is every chance we will do well

Yes out base does seem stronger than at any time in a long while. No coincidence that premiers always have really stable, strong leadership at the top holding the platform nice and steady for the coaches and team to perform on. And thats a big tick for us in that area.

I'm a big believer in the coaches that can go on to win a flag are real visionaries that bring some new approach to the table that others struggle to truly understand. They understand the game at very deep level and are able to create a unique pattern and approach and then get ahead of the game in that area that others will take a long time to unravel. Whether Richo can do that I'm yet to see. HE strikes me more as competent in the tactical area but a great developer of players and able to get great buy-in. That should take us a long way but whether it takes us all the way I don't know.

Richo's lack of premium on keeping the ball worries me. His focus seems to be effort, pressure and ball movement. I think a lot of the premiers have great ability to keep the ball. Its a powerful weapon to kill off oppo momentum and be able to control the game. Control is everything.

[Bluthy]

Already hearing everyone starting to trot their old-fashioned St Kilda defeatist, half-baked excuses out why we won't make finals:

Everyone?

You must hang out witha lot of negative people.

Most people that I converse with, and have also read have us, making the finals.

However make no mistake this will be the toughest year ever in the AFL for teams to make the 8. So it will not bea cakewalk. We have to pay well, very well, just to make the 8. Probably only the Blues and Brisbane are not genuine contenders to make the 8. Though I do expect the Tigers to struggle as well.

See I don't know about this. People seem to be viewing it almost as only 1 spot in the 8 available - taking Norths spot. For me I only see GWS, Dogs and Sydney as having very high odds chance of making the 8. I think WC, Adelaide, Hawks, Geelong all have some soft underbellies that we could sink out teeth into if we get things right. Dogs could even suffer the "pinch one early then drop the next year" blues.

That Geelong made the prelim last year basically relying on Dangerwood dragging them into it said a lot to me about the strength of the top eight. WC and Adelaide have great home ground advantage but travel s*** and seem to disappear up their own arse a lot being fetted in their home town. WC without nic-nat, hard to know what Mitchell brings them but they seem brittle to me. Adelaide I don't know if they are as good as they think - Betts is starting to drink his own bathwater. If we can get our travel plans right I think we could take them on even at their home. Hawks could struggle if JOM doesn't get out there. North look shot.

As for those lower than us - Port don't worry me under Hinkley, Melbourne are changing coaches which (unless they are Beveridge) usually means they go backwards a bit getting the gameplan down, Collingwood have Buckley as handbrake, Richmond have Hardwick talking bizzare crap already (make Richmond great again - hah hah so funny), Freo could be anything but Ross' ability to rebuild is in huge question and whether he has lost the players is a serious issue - last year was disgusting for them in terms of player effort - they looked seriously burned out. GC seem to be getting their culture issues under control and have talent, but have a very old-school coach sucking the life out of them.

If we are good enough we should be able to dismantle a lot of what these teams put out if we get our own s*** together. Its about us and what we deliver. WE should be keep moving forward and getting better than many of these other teams. Our young talent is starting to bloom and that is where you get the biggest leaps from if you have a solid coach and game plan. IF this batch of McCartin, Billings, Acres, Dunstan, Hickey, Mckenzie bloom this year but can't show enough on the field to take on the teams around us, then we are actually in big trouble. Time to show what they've got instead of just keep talking about "potential".

[Bluthy]

We're still to young - WTF on this? We are the 7th oldest list. http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-12-03/t ... -key-stats Dat exuse out da window

I won't respond to all these points, but it should be noted that this is extremely misleading. From Reddit:




That's from 6 months ago, so not up to date with Chips leaving, but still mostly accurate. Our oldest players are well above league average, and our youngest players are below league average.

Richo brought in Brown and kept playing all of Gears, Gilbo, Fish, Dempster, Joey, Rooey, Schneider, Ray etc. Can't whinge about too many oldies if Richo decides to do that. The average is the average - suck it up. They have designed the list this way and you can't now squeal about it is not performing because too many oldies.

It also indicates we have incredible potential to make a quantum leap which comes for your really talented kids getting past their first few years. These days younger is getting more and more valuable as they bring energy, run, skills etc. Look at what Dogs did with a very young list. Hawks pinched one early with a young team. Its not about age, its about how good the players are. Time to deliver instead of endlessly talking about potential and manipulating the data to give excuses. We will get a good idea of how good Billings, McCartin, Acres etc are that is to do with their talent, decision making and x-factor. Talking age is a smoke-screen to cover some of that up if they struggle.

This is Richo's team now, he's shaped it to be the way it is. He needs to take responsibility for it. If he succeeds this year, I will bow down before and proclaim he got it right. If not, he will feel my (irrelevant and impotent) wrath!

[shrodes]

Brown is actually only 28 years old, which is an age group we were still below league average on. My point is that a single figure (average age) doesn't represent the full picture when it comes to the maturity of our team. Saying we're the 7th oldest list is misleading when talking about what our performance should be. Our actual age distribution and games played tells a far more complete story, and is in my opinion a valid point to make when talking about the maturity and 'readiness' of the group.

I'm not sure how I'm manipulating the data when I presented it quite clearly for anyone to review.

[WellardSaint]

I read the very first post, then decided it was all waffle and not worth my time, so I refuse to read any further.
Cannot see where all your excuses come from, I don't see any "defeatist" attitudes anywhere, not even a sniff.
Bluthy reminds me of Don Quixote; the Spaniard who looked at windmills and saw evil knights that he had to duel with.

I don't know what you are talking about, seriously.
The season hasn't even started yet!
Just enjoy the ride, don't invent drama that is not even there,
and let the club do their work; after all, they are being paid to do a job, so by definition, they are professionals.
We don't get paid for our opinions, so we are just amateurs.

[Spinner]

We're still to young - WTF on this? We are the 7th oldest list. http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-12-03/t ... -key-stats Dat exuse out da window

I won't respond to all these points, but it should be noted that this is extremely misleading. From Reddit:




That's from 6 months ago, so not up to date with Chips leaving, but still mostly accurate. Our oldest players are well above league average, and our youngest players are below league average.

Richo brought in Brown and kept playing all of Gears, Gilbo, Fish, Dempster, Joey, Rooey, Schneider, Ray etc. Can't whinge about too many oldies if Richo decides to do that. The average is the average - suck it up. They have designed the list this way and you can't now squeal about it is not performing because too many oldies.

It also indicates we have incredible potential to make a quantum leap which comes for your really talented kids getting past their first few years. These days younger is getting more and more valuable as they bring energy, run, skills etc. Look at what Dogs did with a very young list. Hawks pinched one early with a young team. Its not about age, its about how good the players are. Time to deliver instead of endlessly talking about potential and manipulating the data to give excuses. We will get a good idea of how good Billings, McCartin, Acres etc are that is to do with their talent, decision making and x-factor. Talking age is a smoke-screen to cover some of that up if they struggle.

This is Richo's team now, he's shaped it to be the way it is. He needs to take responsibility for it. If he succeeds this year, I will bow down before and proclaim he got it right. If not, he will feel my (irrelevant and impotent) wrath!

Schrodes - superb post with the analysis and calling out the misleading crap written above.

Bluthy - id advise never to defend your number cherry picking with the line 'the average is the average - suck it up' ever again. Averages have their flaws, and a simple distribution profile above shows how you need to take care with them. I wouldn't say you are an idiot for using it in the first place, but to aggressively defend it after the illustration by scrodes above doesn't leave many other options.

[fingers]

No he wont.

[White Winmar]

"The mean hides a multitude of sins." I think Sir Francis Galton first said that. Or was it Andrew O'Keefe? One of the two.

[WellardSaint]

"The mean hides a multitude of sins." I think Sir Francis Galton first said that. Or was it Andrew O'Keefe? One of the two.

I remember something from high school maths, where a teacher said about averages:
" a fella could have his head in a hot oven, and his feet stuck in the freezer, and correctly assert that on average, he is at room temperature!"

[White Winmar]

"The mean hides a multitude of sins." I think Sir Francis Galton first said that. Or was it Andrew O'Keefe? One of the two.

I remember something from high school maths, where a teacher said about averages:
" a fella could have his head in a hot oven, and his feet stuck in the freezer, and correctly assert that on average, he is at room temperature!"

[Impatient Sainter]

The club rate AR he has the job for as long as wants it would seem! Lets see how he goes this year before judging him too harshly...

[Bluthy]

Brown is actually only 28 years old, which is an age group we were still below league average on. My point is that a single figure (average age) doesn't represent the full picture when it comes to the maturity of our team. Saying we're the 7th oldest list is misleading when talking about what our performance should be. Our actual age distribution and games played tells a far more complete story, and is in my opinion a valid point to make when talking about the maturity and 'readiness' of the group.

I'm not sure how I'm manipulating the data when I presented it quite clearly for anyone to review.

You are almost implying that Roo, Joey and Demps walk around on the field with walking sticks, telling the youngsters to "get off my lawn" and contribute nothing but bumping up our average age to confuse the likes of little ole me. Au Contraire - their age and experience is incredibly valuable. Roo and Joey will be desperate to play another final series (possibly their last) and are guys who know exactly what it takes to run a season long campaign to make finals. They will drive the team to stop any flat spots, set high standards, know the importance of every game and getting games in the bank, look out for mid-year faltering, know how vital even 1 goal can be to get the 4 pts that could make the difference between playing finals or not. Not even Armo and Gears have that finals experience.

That is my point. You are trying to write their age off as outliers and why we shouldn't make finals - but I am saying it is a huge reason why we should. The same reason Melbourne brought in Lewis and Collingwood loaded up on oldies . That experience and age is a huge AD-vantage, not DIS-advantage like you are implying. It's the reason we have had the edge on Melbourne and many pundits put us in the 8 above Melbourne. That's why I put stock in that average age figure. It is a good indication of experience you have on board and ours is better than Melbournes (you could argue there is a down side of older players that they are losing a yard of pace and slower reaction times of course)

I would argue that a team that finished 9th should have the exact distribution you displayed in that graph (our might be a little exaggerated). You have a few older heads who know the path to finals and can guide the youth, and then a group a little below average coming into their prime ready for several years attempts on a flag at least. No team will have that exact average line. Every team will have its own variations. That what an average indicates - gives you an overall sense of what you have on board you list.

You can't just make Roo and Joey go away for the convenience of your "super young" theory. I don't want them to go away. Neither does Richo. He could have made them go away and lower our average age and then I would agree with you. But he didn't - in fact brought in Brown for more experience. They impact the team just like they impact the average. Da maths don't lie.

Plus the fact that many of the first and second year players will be in the two's all year. Our first 25 would be a pretty average age is my guess that should be very capable of getting enough wins for finals.