However, there is a bloody big silver lining to the retirements, as they allow St Kilda to move forward and develop a forward structure that is slightly different to the Gehrig years, yet retains a lot of the best aspects of those years.
I suspect that Voss and Gehrig notified Lyon of their intentions as early as possible to give him maximum notice before trade week and the draft.
2007 was an absolutely abysmal year for St Kilda scoring. We scored just 1874 points - 16th in the comp - in finishing 9th. This was 200 points less than 2006 and reflected a downward trend since our marquee years of 2004-2005.
Interestingly, Geelong in 2006 scored 1982 points and finished 10th. Just one season later they were able to score 2542 points (2953 after finals) and win a flag. That's a whopping 28 per cent increase (about 93 goals) difference from one regular season to the next.
So where did these extra goals come from? The main sources were:
Mooney: 22 goals in 2006 to 55 goals in 2007 = an extra 33
N Ablett: 4 goals in 2006 to 28 goals in 2007 = an extra 24
Stokes: 9 goals in 2006 to 28 goals in 2007 = an extra 19
Ling: 9 goals in 2006 to 27 goals in 2007 = an extra 18
Wojcinski: 1 goal in 2006 to 14 goals in 2007 = an extra 13
S Johnson: 29 goals in 2006 to 41 goals in 2007 = an extra 12
Varcoe, Hawkins and Selwood: 34 goals after debuting in 2007 = an extra 34
So that's an extra 153 goals right there. The Cats also got less scoring output from Ottens, G Ablett, Playfair, Gardiner, Tenace, Hunt, King and Enright.
So with a combination of restructuring of the forward line, significant improvement (both at individual and team level), and the injection of some new goalkicking talent, the Cats were able to go from a team finishing 9th to a team three games and almost 40% clear on the top of the ladder.
With this in mind, below is where I expect the goals to come from for the Saints in 2008.
60+ goals: Justin Koschitzke
Frankly I am surprised that this is even up for debate. Kosi is quick, tall, an incredible contested mark, a reliable kick, and unbelievably competitive. If played at full-forward there is no reason why he could not kick 60 goals plus. For years people have been complaining about him being wasted in the ruck; well, complain no more. Has never kicked more than 26 in a season (2007), but has never played as a dedicated FF. Mooney went and got his head right and went from kicking 22 in 2006 to 55 in 2007. We need the same from Kosi. Will need to kick 3 goals a game; as we have seen, he can hit a purple patch and kick 5 in a quarter, and is also likely to be more consistent than Gehrig, who could sometimes go missing for a week.
50+ goals: Nick Riewoldt
Roo is best played as a mobile centre half-forward, as his aerobic capacity for a big man is phenomenal. However, I still expect him to kick 50+ goals from this position (a little more than 2 per game). His accuracy is not too bad at 60% over his career but I would like to see that raised to 65%.
35 goals: Stephen Milne
Milne is much maligned, but 30-35 goals is a good return for a crumbing small forward (compare Stokes at Geelong). The 2005 season was one out of the box (perfect example 11 goals v Brisbane). Milne kicked 32 in 2007 so he just needs to keep kicking them. However, he must stop trying to do too much (baulking etc) and must exert more forward defensive pressure. Sticking a tackle would be nice too.
35 goals: Lenny Hayes / Luke Ball / Aaron Fiora / Leigh Montagna
These players are <10 goal per game midfielders, nothing more. We should expect to get 35 goals from the four of them. The only criticism I have is poor accuracy from Hayes and Fiora. As stated below, if King/Gardiner do not come up they will need to do more (perhaps 10-12 goals apiece).
30 goals: Adam Schneider
Very smart trading by the Saints. Schneider to play exclusively as a specialist forward - this is our Steve Johnson. Has kicked 22 and 27 the past two seasons so knows where they are. All this guff about "recycled hacks" or "Sydney Mk 2" sounds like Lyon-bashing to me. Thankfully most people recognise that Schneider has talent and represents fantastic goalkicking potential for the Saints. Also means we don't place all our crumbing eggs in the Milne basket - takes pressure off Yapper, and diversity in goalkicking can only be a good thing. Expect St Kilda to get a lot more scoring opportunities from this guy locking it in the forward 50.
30 goals: Jason Gram / Brendon Goddard
We have retained L Fisher, R Clarke and Ferguson (thus far) and recruited Dempster primarily as a tagger, but he can play in the backline. Therefore, depending on BJ's fitness, I expect to see Gram and Goddard as part of the midfield rotations in 2008, with Gram floating down as an extra attacking half-back and Goddard providing a link at wing/half-forward. Gram has kicked 9 and 10 the last two years (as a half-back), Goddard 10 in 2006. I believe we can get 30 goals out of the pair from long accurate bombs over the flood. I have a feeling that Dempster might have been targeted by Lyon for a specific accountable, defensive role to free up Gram/Goddard for more attacking roles.
20 goals: Steven King / Michael Gardiner
This one is crucial; goals from a resting ruckman is where we have been lacking since Everitt's departure. The closest we have got was 12 from Ackland in 2005. Would be handy for Rix to change in the ruck and let Gardiner/King nab a goal a game. If we don't get goals from these players, our midfielders MUST play a greater goalkicking role. A lot depends on M Gardiner coming good.
20 goals: Nick Dal Santo
Dal Santo needs to kick more goals - his best was 15 in 2005, and 5 of those came in one game (vs Melbourne Rd 17, from memory). Accuracy is very good - about 60% over his career, which is what you would expect from a player of his skill. He needs to cut through the defences and take his chances. Critical in this is Ball getting his groin right so Dal is not tagged out of every game. Ling went from 9 goals in 2006 to 27 in 2007, and Wojcinski from 1 to 14. I am only asking Dal to roughly double his output (9 to 20).
20 goals: Robert Harvey
I expect to be shouted down on this one. I would like to see Harvey play as a dedicated half-forward in 2008. I know he is more than capable of playing in the midfield, and that he is useful in the rotations, but realistically we have Ball, Dal, Hayes, Gram, Goddard, Fiora, Armitage (maybe), Baker, Birss and Dempster. It would be great to park the Rolls Royce on the half-forward flank to work his magic setting up Kosi, Roo and Schneider while picking up a goal a game himself. Ricciuto and Buckley have had success in this role in 2006 (44 and 26 goals respectively). Class is class.
15 goals: Charlie Gardiner
I don't know what to expect from Gardiner in 2008. Many say he has been kept out of the Geelong side by N Ablett's good form. However, Ablett only hit his stride in 2007; in 2006, with Ablett only playing 7 games and the Cats sitting in the botton half of the 8, Gardiner could only manage 5 games. His best season was in 2004, when he kicked 10 goals as a forward (from 19 games!). In my opinion he will be important to our structure in filling the Hamill "lead-up forward" role. Hopefully with the fresh start and a strong pep-talk from Lyon ("Geelong doesn't need you, we do") he will put in a big pre-season and net more. I think he will kick 10, but hope he will kick 20, so I have split the difference and put him down for 15 goals.
10 goals: Jarryd Allen
This one is an absolute smokey, but with the delisting of Watts I can only conclude that the coaching staff have seen something in Allen to tip the scales in his favour. He will be 20 going into next season, and missed a lot of this year with injury, so is still a rank outsider to make his debut in 2008. If he gets a few games and can kick 10 goals, he will have performed extremely well. N Ablett was languishing in the reserves at Geelong in 2006 but found form and played off in a GF. In 2007 he played 21 games for 34 goals. I wouldn't expect that sort of performance from Allen in his debut season, but if he can kick 10 goals to go with C Gardiner's 15-odd, that would be similar to the goalkicking injection that the Cats enjoyed this year.
The fact remains that we need somebody to step up from our reserves side and kick a few. Will it be Allen?
X-factor: 10 goals
It would be handy to have a player come into the side and kick 10 goals from nothing the previous year - Geelong enjoyed this in 2007 with Varcoe (14 goals), Hawkins (12) and Selwood (7). So there might be something to be gained in targeting a goalkicking mid with pick #9 - a Cyril Rioli type. It's also entirely possible that X Clarke or Gilbert could get it together and kick a few.
Other: 20 goals
Those not mentioned above - Rix, Jones, key defenders, Casey players etc. If the side gels and we pull out the percentage-boosting party tricks against Carlton or the Dogs, this might jump to 25-30 goals (in an ideal world).
Total: 345 goals
Not counting the "X-factor" goals, this would net us 345 goals in the season, or 15-16 goals per game, and with behinds that would push up above 100 points per game. This is what we will need to score to finish top 4 (provided our defence stays strong).
Obviously it's not going to simply happen - it requires hard work, a big pre-season, improvement in players/team and a good run with injuries. But in 2007 we kicked an abysmal 1874 points and finished 16th for points scored, and this was with Gehrig at full-forward.
We must take the opportunity of a new team structure to start scoring heavily again. I believe that Lyon and co. have specifically traded with this in mind for a decent crack at the top 4 - and from there anything can happen.
Roll on 2008
