Blues v Demons, draft picks, tanking etc

[Brewer]

Somebody posted the possible draft pick scenarios recently, but I can't find the thread.

Just wondering why Carlton and Melbourne are getting so excited for picks when presumably Richmond will get in first anyway?

[TheBabyBlues]

If Carlton lose they qualify for the pre-first round draft pick (essentially pick #1) as they have failed to win 4 games for 2 consecutive seasons. They would also get pick #3 as their standard first round pick. (Richmond would get #2)

If Carlton lose they fail to qualify for the Priority Pick and Richmond will get pick #1 for finishing last. Carlton would leapfrog Melbourne (after beating them) and end up with only pick 3. Melbourne would then be eligible for a pre-second round draft pick (as would richmond) and that would bump carltons second round pick back a spot as well.

So carlton lose they get...
Pick #1, #3, #20
If Carlton win they get...
Pick #3, #21, #37

Now you can see why the wider AFL community are up in arms about this 'tanking' for picks.

[stinger]

no...carlton will get pick one if they lose on the basis of their total; wins..or lack of them...over the past two years....

[stinger]

If Carlton lose they qualify for the pre-first round draft pick (essentially pick #1) as they have failed to win 4 games for 2 consecutive seasons. They would also get pick #3 as their standard first round pick. (Richmond would get #2)

If Carlton lose they fail to qualify for the Priority Pick and Richmond will get pick #1 for finishing last. Carlton would leapfrog Melbourne (after beating them) and end up with only pick 3. Melbourne would then be eligible for a pre-second round draft pick (as would richmond) and that would bump carltons second round pick back a spot as well.

So carlton lose they get...
Pick #1, #3, #20
If Carlton win they get...
Pick #3, #21, #37

Now you can see why the wider AFL community are up in arms about this 'tanking' for picks.

how do you feel about barracking for a club lower than pond scum....

[TheBabyBlues]

If Carlton lose they qualify for the pre-first round draft pick (essentially pick #1) as they have failed to win 4 games for 2 consecutive seasons. They would also get pick #3 as their standard first round pick. (Richmond would get #2)

If Carlton lose they fail to qualify for the Priority Pick and Richmond will get pick #1 for finishing last. Carlton would leapfrog Melbourne (after beating them) and end up with only pick 3. Melbourne would then be eligible for a pre-second round draft pick (as would richmond) and that would bump carltons second round pick back a spot as well.

So carlton lose they get...
Pick #1, #3, #20
If Carlton win they get...
Pick #3, #21, #37

Now you can see why the wider AFL community are up in arms about this 'tanking' for picks.

how do you feel about barracking for a club lower than pond scum....

See the thread you just created.

[Brewer]

Thanks everyone - so basically Melbourne are looking at 2nd or 3rd pick regardless?

If so, is 2nd pick that much greater than 3rd to justify Melbourne tanking?

It seems like Carlton have more to gain from losing (3rd pick into 1st pick) than Melbourne (3rd pick into 2nd pick).

Just trying to pick my tips for this weekend, I'm beginning to think there is no way Carlton are going to win this game, the question is how badly Melbourne want to lose.

[TheBabyBlues]

Thanks everyone - so basically Melbourne are looking at 2nd or 3rd pick regardless?

If so, is 2nd pick that much greater than 3rd to justify Melbourne tanking?

It seems like Carlton have more to gain from losing (3rd pick into 1st pick) than Melbourne (3rd pick into 2nd pick).

Just trying to pick my tips for this weekend, I'm beginning to think there is no way Carlton are going to win this game, the question is how badly Melbourne want to lose.

Melbourne would also get a 'bonus' pick before the second round.

Melbourne win they get...
Pick 4, 21, 37
Melbourne lose they get...
Pick 2, 18, 20

So yeah...thay get a benefit from losing too, but not to the same extent that carlton does (courtesy of only winning 3.5 games last year)

[Brewer]

It's a ridiculous situation isn't it.

I particularly like Dimitriou's response which is basically 'tanking doesn't happen because I'm telling you it doesn't happen'.



I thought Hutchy's suggestion last night was interesting, that the AFL should reverse the situation just for this match so that the winner gets the better picks. Of course the AFL won't do it because it would be an admission of a flaw in their system.

Surely even the AFL can't defend this permanently, there obviously needs to be a much less direct link between bad performance and early picks.

[saintsRrising]

Loser takes all

[TheBabyBlues]

It's a ridiculous situation isn't it.

I particularly like Dimitriou's response which is basically 'tanking doesn't happen because I'm telling you it doesn't happen'.



I thought Hutchy's suggestion last night was interesting, that the AFL should reverse the situation just for this match so that the winner gets the better picks.

Surely even the AFL can't defend this permanently, there obviously needs to be a much less direct link between bad performance and early picks.

Could not agree more.

Demitrispew has taken the holier than thou position and said it doesn't happen. Funny how caro said on FC last night that both clubs have approached the AFL asking for some kind of pardon from the rules to save the AFL getting egg on its face.

The AFL tried to fix the system by changing the rules, but instead they just made them worse. Ditch the PP once and for all, implement a lottery draft and be done with it.

[fonz_#15]

i say go the blues..absolute crock if they get 3 picks in the first 20

[Brewer]

Surely there could be some sort of 'weighted lottery' - so that the poorer performing teams get extra lottery entries, and therefore over time the earlier picks would 'generally' go to the lower teams - but this idea that clubs can predict exactly what picks they'll get based on how they perform on the weekend is plainly ridiculous.

A weighted lottery would mean that you can't manipulate your picks, and there is no direct benefit from throwing games - but a struggling team would, on average, fare better in the draft than one finishing at the top of the ladder.

It could even factor in the results over more than one season to function more as a regulating mechanism than a direct reward for poor performance.

[TheBabyBlues]

Surely there could be some sort of 'weighted lottery' - so that the poorer performing teams get extra lottery entries, and therefore over time the earlier picks would 'generally' go to the lower teams - but this idea that clubs can predict exactly what picks they'll get based on how they perform on the weekend is plainly ridiculous.

A weighted lottery would mean that you can't manipulate your picks, and there is no direct benefit from throwing games - but a struggling team would, on average, fare better in the draft than one finishing at the top of the ladder.

It could even factor in the results over more than one season to function more as a regulating mechanism than a direct reward for poor performance.

Got it in 1.

It solves all the current problems regarding the tanking issues that goes on, while still holding to the equalisation of the league that the AFL demands.

Why they dont give serious consideration to this idea just goes to show how inept and out of touch the AFL heads really are.

I would happily go for a weighted lottery draft this year if it meant that all the tanking talk would stop and it meant that we were less likely to get the #1 pick. If i as a Carlton supporter am happy to see this implemented...who is against the idea???

[plugger66]

i say go the blues..absolute crock if they get 3 picks in the first 20

I think we have twice before.

[Brewer]

If i as a Carlton supporter am happy to see this implemented...who is against the idea???

I guess it's just down to the AFL's pig-headedness and flat refusal to ever admit that one of their policies isn't working.

Another problem with the current situation is that it pretty much automatically means the most exciting player in the draft goes to play in the most disfunctional and unskilled team - surely that can't be good for the game.

I'd definitely like to see a bit more 'luck of the draw' involved, and perhaps occasionally see a mid-performing team get a lucky break and an early pick and get the player they really need to complement their list.

It should also make clubs seriously think about how they can pull themselves out of their rut, instead of just waiting for the next draft to solve all their problems.

[fonz_#15]

i say go the blues..absolute crock if they get 3 picks in the first 20

I think we have twice before.

yes you may be right plugger..still bulls***

[plugger66]

i say go the blues..absolute crock if they get 3 picks in the first 20

I think we have twice before.

yes you may be right plugger..still bulls***

Not sure about that. They are been pathetic for 2 years not one so they may need some help. Being balanced if we were in the same boat we would be wanting help and if we didnt get it we would be blaming the drafting rules.

[TheBabyBlues]

i say go the blues..absolute crock if they get 3 picks in the first 20

I think we have twice before.

yes you may be right plugger..still bulls***

Not sure about that. They are been pathetic for 2 years not one so they may need some help. Being balanced if we were in the same boat we would be wanting help and if we didnt get it we would be blaming the drafting rules.

As much as i hate to admit it, we have been pathetic for 3 years, not 2. So to say that we do not deserve the pick is to say that we are not as $hit as you have all been telling us over the past few years. You can't have it both ways.

As much as i dislike the rules, they are doing their job.

[Dan Warna]

if melbourne win and richmond win, carlton get pick 1, 2, and 17...

[TheBabyBlues]

if melbourne win and richmond win, carlton get pick 1, 2, and 17...

Yes.

[stinger]

i say go the blues..absolute crock if they get 3 picks in the first 20

I think we have twice before.

yes you may be right plugger..still bulls***

Not sure about that. They are been pathetic for 2 years not one so they may need some help. Being balanced if we were in the same boat we would be wanting help and if we didnt get it we would be blaming the drafting rules.

As much as i hate to admit it, we have been pathetic for 3 years, not 2. So to say that we do not deserve the pick is to say that we are not as $hit as you have all been telling us over the past few years. You can't have it both ways.

As much as i dislike the rules, they are doing their job.

you have actually been pathetic for 5 or 6 years...............

[wildgoose]

Interesting, they asked Wallsy, if he would prefer the Blues to lose, or win against Melbourne. He said he'd like them to lose because otherwise they miss out on a prioirty pick.

In this case, I think the AFL has the incorrect rules, they give the opposition the opportunity to tank.

Are Carlton doing that? We can only speculate.

[saintsRrising]

Hey...don't forget that the Demons have an incentive to tank as well....

I don't understand why every is foccussing on the Blues as the Dees havea string incentie to tank as well.

IF the dees lose they gain:

1/ An extra draft pick after the first round
2/ Pick No 2 rather than pick 4.....and in thsi years drfat that is abig difference.



AND if the Tigers beat the saints the Dees would actually get Pick No 1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


So don't rule the Dees out of tanking.....plus they actually have more players out.

[Brewer]

So Andrew Demetriou is either stupid, or he is lying to us all.

It doesn't matter whether clubs go out with a deliberate intention to tank - the phrase we should use here is conflict of interest.

Whether the coach actually says 'go out there and lay down' is irrelevant, the simple fact is that teams have more to gain directly from losing once they are out of finals contention, and especially in the final rounds of the season.

Whether that just translates to players not having the same gritty determination on the field, or the coach making some questionable rotations on the day, or even just some of the fans barracking in the wrong direction, the fact is that it is no longer an entire club pulling as strongly as it possibly can in the same direction.

Either Demetriou is too stupid to understand that, or he is just too pigheaded to admit it and is therefore lying to the footy public.

There was a time when the wooden spoon was a symbol of shame, now it's like second prize.

[TheBabyBlues]

Interesting, they asked Wallsy, if he would prefer the Blues to lose, or win against Melbourne. He said he'd like them to lose because otherwise they miss out on a prioirty pick.

In this case, I think the AFL has the incorrect rules, they give the opposition the opportunity to tank.

Are Carlton doing that? We can only speculate.

Add Elliot, Kouta, Rhys-Jones and Collo into that group of carlton icons who have publicly stated they are hoping for a loss this week.

Regardless of if we were eligible for this PP based on a loss now....Would we be doing anything different?
We would still...
- Be sending players in for surgery to get them right for next year
- Be playing kids and seeing which of them are long term prospects.
- Be playing players who are borderline on whether or not they will be on the list next year.
- Be trying players in different positions to try and settle into a balanced side for next year.

....but because a pick is involved we are doing all of the above due to 'tanking'.

The AFL created the system, we are playing the game and doing what any team would be doing, yours included.