Finals chances: the SCENARIOS ... (ladders here please!!)

[Oh When the Saints]

If we win next week

We will have 11 wins, and barring a disaster against Richmond, are certain of making the 8 - no-one can knock us out.


If we lose next week

We must rely on Adelaide, Brisbane and Essendon losing one of their remaining two matches each:

• Brisbane and Adelaide play each other next week, which is good for us. One of those two sides will be out of the finals race come this time next week
• The side that wins out of the Crows/Lions will need to lose the following week if we are to make the 8 (based on current percentages):
  ----- Lions play Cats at the GABBA (pretty safe to say Geelong will win)
  ----- Crows play Collingwood at the MCG (50/50 ... could be dangerous)
• So if Adelaide win their next two, and we lose to the Eagles, then they would finish 8th and we would miss the finals by 2 points and %
• Essendon have Richmond next week and are likely to win, but face the Eagles at Subiaco in Round 22. Barring a massive upset, the Bombers won't have an impact
• The Western Bulldogs can only have an impact if they make up the 5% they trail us by, win both of their next two matches, rely on us losing a game, and rely on Adelaide and Brisbane both losing one match.

If we lose the next two games

We can't, and don't deserve to make the finals.

[fonz_#15]

so we are hoping that brisbane beat the crows and lose to the cats.

and

the crows lose both games.

[Quixote]

Combine this thread with thread =

"We must win this week" ?

[Oh When the Saints]

So we need to barrack for Geelong and Collingwood over the next two weeks ... if those sides go 2-0 (which they are favoured to), and as long as we beat Richmond, then we are in.

[Oh When the Saints]

Combine this thread with thread =

"We must win this week" ?

Can't combine threads unfortunately ...

If you want to move your post over here, that would be appreciated, cheers.

[suss]

It's a good scenario. The ball is in our court...

[fonz_#15]

So we need to barrack for Eagles over the next two weeks ... .

wash your mouth out

[Solar]

some REALLY interesting games coming up. I did a ladder where sydney finished 9th, there are 4 melbourne finals.

Round 21
TD* St K over wce 6 pts
TD Kang over carl 18 pts
Sub Frem over Melb 6 pts
MCG* Coll over Syd 6 pts
AAMI* Bris over Adel 6 pts
TD Haw over WB 18 pts
SS Geel over Port 30 pts
MCG Ess over Rich 18 pts
Round 22
TD* Coll over Adel 18 pts
MCG St K over rich 30 pts
Sub WC over Ess 18 pts
Gabba* Bris over Geel 6 pts
AAMI* Port over Frem 30 pts
SCG Haw over syd 6 pts
TD Kang over WB 30 pts
MCG Melb Carl 6 pts

Geelong 22 18 4 0 2508 1643 72 152.6
4 Hawthorn 22 14 8 0 2089 1835 56 113.8
3 West Coast 22 14 8 0 2130 1907 56 111.6
2 Port Adel 22 14 8 0 2290 2052 56 111.5
5 Kangaroos 22 14 8 0 2089 2002 56 104.3
6 Collingwood 22 14 8 0 2047 2010 56 101.8
8 St Kilda 22 12 9 1 1892 1925 50 98.2
9 Bris Lions 22 11 9 2 2029 1848 48 109.7

7 Sydney 22 11 10 1 2008 1734 46 115.8
11 Essendon 22 11 11 0 2168 2343 44 92.5
10 Adelaide 22 10 12 0 1889 1789 40 105.5
13 Fremantle 22 10 12 0 2213 2208 40 100.2
12 W Bulldogs 22 9 12 1 2127 2385 38 89.1
14 Melbourne 22 5 17 0 1866 2366 20 78.8
15 Carlton 22 4 18 0 2168 2822 16 76.8
16 Richmond 22 2 19 1 1923 2567 10 74.9


If thats the case then browns goal with 5 seconds left sat night might have won them 8th spot. collingwood could easily end up either out or 8th if they loose their next two games. Hawks v sydney last game will be a beauty, hawks could be playing for a home qualifying final and a shot at the flag while sydney might be playing for their lives!

Lot of those games could go either way.

[Munga]

[*] So if Adelaide win their next two, and we lose to the Eagles, then they would finish 8th and we would miss the finals by 2 points and %

9th?

[Oh When the Saints]

Yep, 9th unless Essendon beat the Eagles and the Pies go 0-2.

[saintsRrising]

• Brisbane and Adelaide play each other next week, which is good for us. One of those two sides will be out of the finals race come this time next week

Or you could argue it is bad...as it guarantees that at least one will still be in the race...

Lets hope that the Lions knock off the Crows......as I would imagine Crows will bea big chance to knock off the Pies as the Pies form of late has been rocky.

[Bernard Shakey]

We will win the next 6.

[SuperSaint]

We will win the next 6.

Love that optimism!

[midas_touch]

Interesting analysis OWTS.

We can still afford to lose another game and still make it, but we ultimately need to win our next two to also gain some momentum coming into the finals.

[TimeToShineFellas]

So we need to barrack for Eagles over the next two weeks

Barrack for the Eagles all you want next week if you like, I know who I'll be barracking for!

[Saints Premiers 2008]

this reeks of geelong as of last year

we are the team that is thereabouts to just scrape in and may do some damage

in reality we could get flogged by the eagles and that will be that

[Oh When the Saints]

So we need to barrack for Eagles over the next two weeks

Barrack for the Eagles all you want next week if you like, I know who I'll be barracking for!

[TimeToShineFellas]

So we need to barrack for Eagles over the next two weeks

Barrack for the Eagles all you want next week if you like, I know who I'll be barracking for!

Just in addition to the OP (which was a good read), I reckon our best case scenario (assuming we finish 8th), would be to cop a Victorian team finishing 5th.

Hawthorn, the Kangaroos and Collingwood present more than great chances for us to progress to the second week of Finals.

Would rather cop one of them than an away assignment to Port or Sydney (assuming West Coast finish Top 4)

[saintspremiers]

So we need to barrack for Eagles over the next two weeks

Barrack for the Eagles all you want next week if you like, I know who I'll be barracking for!

Just in addition to the OP (which was a good read), I reckon our best case scenario (assuming we finish 8th), would be to cop a Victorian team finishing 5th.

Hawthorn, the Kangaroos and Collingwood present more than great chances for us to progress to the second week of Finals.

Would rather cop one of them than an away assignment to Port or Sydney (assuming West Coast finish Top 4)

yep, that's what I've been thinking.....and if we win in the first week there is a chance of a semi in Melbourne the following week also given all the Melbourne teams in the 8 this year.

There is a reasonable chance we could make the Prelims, but that would be as far as you could push the friendship methinks....