Reality Check and where we are at!!

[Ghost Like]

How come Webster gets a pass. Just as undisciplined as Long at times but just doesn't look as manic. Kicking is no better than Higgins in terms of quality.

And Butler, how is he still picked - because we have no reinforcements.

Billings and Ross are so far above those two but is the suggestion get rid of them and keep W & B. Swapping for magic beans only happens in fairy tales. Play the market by selling blue chips and buying startups - a way to wealth how often?

Keep talent. Lose the chaff. Dealing with other AFL clubs seems at best nil sum over the journey.

Different positions I agree Webster is a good squad player only he has his flaws and Butler I mentioned as the most disappointing on the list.
Ross has been over paid for his worth as I mentioned he got a big deal 4 years ago and he needs to come down considerably in line with his worth and market value to stay I am sure he will.
Billings I mentioned I would not pay more than 550 with some extra KPIs to 600 if he starts wanting 700+ there is a problem for me.
It is a risk but I know some of the talent we are focusing on in our draft may temper a loss of a decent quality player at his peak.
Big decision no doubt.

What you've just enunciated there is my problem with the bulls!te AFL salary cap. Why should a club have to pay X amount of the cap? Surely they should only pay what the players on the list are worth?

If the salary cap was a petrol tank, who in their right mind would pay premium fuel price for 91 unleaded? Yet the tank needs to be filled.

[Vazelos]

Great OP, Vazelos ( yes, I did read it...), and I agree with cwrcyn's assessment of the list. I think the 2024 timeline is unrealistic as we are essentially rebuilding (again) and are behind others like NM and even the Hawks, particularly given our position going into this draft and the lack of tradable commodities on our list. I think we are at least 4-5 years off the mark.

I have a few question marks over other players not on cwrcyn's list. I question their current value to the team and the value in reaching our objective of winning a premiership?

Hill. 27 yo The impact on the morale and culture given his inconsistency and lack of accountability? He is not getting any faster. What value will he add over the next couple of years? Cut our losses and trade him out for a pick? The solid connection for Ryder. I query his resilience without Ryder.

Jones. 26 yo is he injury prone?

Gresham 23 yo. Although he fits the age profile for a tilt, will he impact once he returns from a significant injury?

Ryder. 33yo

Thanks Kell if we look at the list-

Relevant players part of our future-

Marshall
Steele
Howard
King
Clark
Gresham
Bytel
Byrnes
Sinclair
Billings
Paton
Coffield
Wilkie
Higgins
Jones
Hill

16players

Possibilities that are out of form or starting out who knows what their future is etc

Butler
Long
Clavarino
Wood- being generous
Alabakis- highly doubtful
2 new boys from mid season draft
Max Heath
Cooper Sharman
7 players

That’s 23 live players that I can pick I may have missed someone. 16 strong 7 hopeful.
Bit of work to do.

Quality players that are going to miss the next window due to age-

Ryder
Membrey
Ross

Rest are to be delisted or retired end of this year and next. We know who they are. About 14 of them.

[saintbob]

Let's have a look at what the holes are. Who are the players who are of the right standard?

The following players will not take us where we want to go

Carlisle (finished)
Hannebery (finished)
Geary (finished at year's end)
Mckenzie (poor skills)
Dunstan (poor skills)
Frawley (finished)
Mckernan (finished)
Long (undisciplined, erratic)
Kent (hard working but lacking impact)
Lonie (see Kent)
Hunter (SANFL player)
Alabakis (no development to speak of)
Joyce (last resort back-up)

That's 13 players, 14 if we include the retired Roberton.

We have one draft pick in the top 50 this year. That makes for a list management nightmare.

Agree totally, but if we can't reach an agreement with Hannebery at seasons end we'll be f***ed for quite a while

[Banger9798]

Agree with several points Vaz (although stopped reading half way)

I didn't read any of it but it was really well spaced!

Apologies for the manifesto and too much for some people’s attention span...
Next time I’ll shorten it.
Hope one day I can become a Saintsational legend .

You forgot a meme or an emoji to keep 'em amused.

LOL

Just finished Ulysses by another great author who wasn't too fussed about punctuation and paragraph breaks either. Wasn't quite up to the Vazelos download yesterday evening. But appreciated what I read.

[The Peanut]

People can talk all they want about Brett Ratten's credentials and his coaching skills which are said to be many, BUT very few talk about his ability manage the psychology of our players when they face the goal for starters. The fact is we would have won the Sydney game and many others if our players could kick goals is clearly a head space issue, and part of that is being confident in yourself and ability. Successful coaches need to be many things and it appears that Brett Ratten is not competant in this area with many players. GT had good skills in players confidence.

[Ghost Like]

People can talk all they want about Brett Ratten's credentials and his coaching skills which are said to be many, BUT very few talk about his ability manage the psychology of our players when they face the goal for starters. The fact is we would have won the Sydney game and many others if our players could kick goals is clearly a head space issue, and part of that is being confident in yourself and ability. Successful coaches need to be many things and it appears that Brett Ratten is not competant in this area with many players. GT had good skills in players confidence.

So was Jim Jones and look how that ended. I'd prefer our players to be accountable for their actions and salaries. To lump an individual's poor goal kicking, their turnovers, their poor foot skills and decision making on one coach is a cop out.

I wish Ratten had the personnel GT had, perhaps that personnel would not have been wasted. That said, Ratten has put the club in finals every year he's coached us. At the end of this season it will be 50% of the years he's coached us. I wish all our coaches had a similar strike rate.

[Yorkeys]

Why stop there. Shouldn't he also make them taller and faster. What's wrong with the man.

And while you are at it Brett make decisions for them in real time play action.

What he can do is make personnel changes from now until March 22, and he sure will.

[Teflon]

Agree with several points Vaz (although stopped reading half way)

I didn't read any of it but it was really well spaced!

Apologies for the manifesto and too much for some people’s attention span...
Next time I’ll shorten it.
Hope one day I can become a Saintsational legend .

I too read it all great post
I agree with most although not sure on B King...I’m wondering if we don’t go hard this year (gonna cost 2 first rounders no matter when) so trade Billings offer thst sbs next years for Bing now and take this years pick 7 or so to draft for best mid...

Teflon I think you may be right re Ben King it may cost us plenty end of 2022 but the strategy should still apply to hold our nerve until next year it’s a midfielders draft we need to nail an elite fast midfielder and pick up some talent in our zone.
Treloar was an opportunity lost we now have to reset 2 years and get an 18 year old we are not a destination club in the premiership window for a mature aged gun.
You can’t do both in one summer in my opinion.

Must admit I don’t know enough bout the draft talent pool ....if this years is a mids draft and we could get in with a first round for Billings plus our top pick that gives us 2 quality options early (we’ll probably split picks and turn it into more project HBFs who might be a mid one day...ffs).
My only question then is Bing is out of contract end 22......we will still have to find 2 first rounders though GC hand lessened a little....I’m actually hoping there’s truth to the rumour that wen he signed with GC that Lethlean advised his old man to insist on an out clause in the contract...that’s why I think they may trade this year....is it worth asking the question?
If we have to find 2 in 22.....not sure what else we’d have to give up....

[B.M]

So Ghost Like

Are you suggesting the players are more important than the coach??

[Teflon]

So Ghost Like

Are you suggesting the players are more important than the coach??

Irrelevant

[Teflon]

Let's have a look at what the holes are. Who are the players who are of the right standard?

The following players will not take us where we want to go

Carlisle (finished)
Hannebery (finished)
Geary (finished at year's end)
Mckenzie (poor skills)
Dunstan (poor skills)
Frawley (finished)
Mckernan (finished)
Long (undisciplined, erratic)
Kent (hard working but lacking impact)
Lonie (see Kent)
Hunter (SANFL player)
Alabakis (no development to speak of)
Joyce (last resort back-up)

That's 13 players, 14 if we include the retired Roberton.

We have one draft pick in the top 50 this year. That makes for a list management nightmare.

I can’t argue with any of those players you mentioned and your analysis you are spot on I would say Long is the only one with some hope but needs to turn things around but he is what you said he is at the moment.
They all need to go.
That is why I believe Billings or Ross have to go and we will get more for Billings it’s a calculated risk but I think he has reached his ceiling and it’s not that great a ceiling. I think his currency is as high as it can get and we may be able to trade off his exalted status as a former number 3 pick ask yourself if he was a pick 25 would we be talking about him like we have in the past?
It certainly is a time to go back into a strong draft and nail some top young players.

Loved the OP Vazelos and kudos to be able to write so much and make sense.

That said, I disagree with Billings and Ross. Again we become delusional when it comes to perception of worth. If we genuinely think Billings and Ross are of no value to our list and our future, why would another club give us more than what we believe they are worth.

Remember, we are dealing with other recruiters / list managers, we are not selling rubbish to St Kilda list managers, they are their own delusional idiots. Take a bow Lethers, I wish we could deal with you.

Disagree Ghost

It’s not about Billings and Ross havin* no value to us - they do
But what you’re not factoring is that the value is different to each team dependent on where they’re at in rebuild phase..I suspect we are 3-4 years away possibly behind Hawks and who knows even NM that said IF the Kangas come offering JB a big contract then they believe his value to them is worth more.....IMO think Vaz has it right....he s hit his ceiling, can’t play midfield (our need now) so his contract value to us is worth more at another club where he fits there profile. Ross too for that matter.
We have 1 pick inside top 50.....we have an empty kids cupboard and nothing with any midfield pace and delivery coming through- we need to re load.
I believe Ratten and co are guilty of severely overrating the list. I think they had a good year last year in weird Covid season, got a good draw, stuff all injuries and the thought “we are top 4 bound 2021” BIG error imo that’s now set us back and which is now why the prez is trying re write history on when our window opens up......they weren’t saying what his letter said late last year??????
We can not afford NOT to do something to stand still with this list would be worse.

[Teflon]

People can talk all they want about Brett Ratten's credentials and his coaching skills which are said to be many, BUT very few talk about his ability manage the psychology of our players when they face the goal for starters. The fact is we would have won the Sydney game and many others if our players could kick goals is clearly a head space issue, and part of that is being confident in yourself and ability. Successful coaches need to be many things and it appears that Brett Ratten is not competant in this area with many players. GT had good skills in players confidence.

So was Jim Jones and look how that ended. I'd prefer our players to be accountable for their actions and salaries. To lump an individual's poor goal kicking, their turnovers, their poor foot skills and decision making on one coach is a cop out.

I wish Ratten had the personnel GT had, perhaps that personnel would not have been wasted. That said, Ratten has put the club in finals every year he's coached us. At the end of this season it will be 50% of the years he's coached us. I wish all our coaches had a similar strike rate.

I too wish he had GTs personnel.....Ratten a better coach than GT.....I still can’t believe we debate this....anyhoo
That said Ratten lives and dies by his decisions this year for mine......he needs to show the club we are heading somewhere .....HE is accoun5able for the support coaches ro7nd the table....can he be ruthless, turn them over get the best in?? Will he make some tough trade calls to take the list further??? Will he accept that the defensive side of his game plan needs work???
He has next year for mine - we can’t wait another 7 years like Richo days to work out he’s no good. IF we suffer another 5-6 50 point losses next year with a side that appears unfit turning up every second week to play he’s gone.

[Ghost Like]

So Ghost Like

Are you suggesting the players are more important than the coach??

So B.M. what have I posted to make you ask that?

[Ghost Like]

I do see where you are coming from Teflon, I do but no one has convinced me that what we receive for JB is better if not equal to what we have now.

Why do we only have one pick inside the Top 50? Is that JB's fault or the fault of the people you now want to trust with whatever we get for JB. If that's the case, an even bigger NO THANKS from me.

[bigcarl]

Agree with several points Vaz (although stopped reading half way)

Paton a huge underrated loss. ...excellent speed , skills and discipline and courage.

Marshall and Jones make this side look much better

Gresh also, losing both Jones and Gresh hurts us very badly

If we kick straight vs Cats and Swans we are 7-5

Are we really that far off it?

We lack depth, that is without doubt, but we have a side around 8th place.

This year we should :

Settle Battle in a position
Play Clavarino, Byrnes and Bytel whenever we can
Put Hannaberry on long term injury list and either get him right or pay him out.
Clark to midfield for the rest of the year
Spell anyone with niggling injuries ...Billings for instance.

If we can't make finals, this year is development and it doesn't hurt if we slip to 15th or 16th re draft

Agree with all of that, particularly Clark to midfield.

[Teflon]

I do see where you are coming from Teflon, I do but no one has convinced me that what we receive for JB is better if not equal to what we have now.

Why do we only have one pick inside the Top 50? Is that JB's fault or the fault of the people you now want to trust with whatever we get for JB. If that's the case, an even bigger NO THANKS from me.

I hear that and you are right to be nervous facts are every time you hit the draft there are no guarantees but I’d counter by saying we know what we have with Jack now.....he plays a HFF goal kicker....on his day he’s good....but we can cover that and I think a healthy Gresham goes a long way to doing that .......but both aren’t the genuine Merret type mids we need
There are a couple early in this draft.....genuine mids......IF we can land one and they can give us some impact over next 12-18 months I think we can markedly improve the list on a net basis
I’d love the luxury to also keep Billings as in a very good side his output will be greater that what we see now imo ......we aren’t that side, won’t be for a few years .......so cash in now take the hit and aim to fix list holes with a view to not making top 8 but top 4.
Dont realise that when Billings is 30 .....we have zero currency sadly ...look at Swans.....let Membrey go.....v good player.....but they know to get better you sometimes have to give
We constantly overrate our players

[The Fireman]

truth of the matter is if they could get it through the big sticks we would 2 or 3 games better off, or more and we wouldn't be factoring all these diff things in.

We are close to where we need to be.....just train them to kick. Simples.

[Ghost Like]

Let's take the hit by ridding our club of our poor footballers, our wasted trades and expensive flops. If JB leaves we will get compensation but I do not believe it will be what you are hoping for so that alone means we are better to try to hold on to him.

I'm also not sure he's as replaceable as you claim. We are not bursting with outside, dual sided, disposal efficient players.

This will be something we will continue to disagree on. If we are 3 to 4 years away then you are likely correct but I'm not as pessimistic.

[Teflon]

Let's take the hit by ridding our club of our poor footballers, our wasted trades and expensive flops. If JB leaves we will get compensation but I do not believe it will be what you are hoping for so that alone means we are better to try to hold on to him.

I'm also not sure he's as replaceable as you claim. We are not bursting with outside, dual sided, disposal efficient players.

This will be something we will continue to disagree on. If we are 3 to 4 years away then you are likely correct but I'm not as pessimistic.

Ryder has 1 year left.....whose replacing h8m?
Carlisle is done and Clav looks ok game 2.....not sure I’d put all my eggs in the basket yet ...
Zac Jones is good......for 12-14 games a year outside him midfield is 1 paced lacks star power....Treloar could’ve really h3lped short term....anyhoo we need another 2 guns in there who use the ball well
Plus we all agree there’s about 14 names posted earlier who are deadwood
Sometimes to go forward u have to take a step to the side.....
Agree with Firey we aren’t needing a full rebuild ....we have a decent core and would be 7-5 with depleted side this year if we could kick straight......but if my Aunty..........you know how it goes .....and to excuse those misses as just bad luck would be a mistake imo

[Teflon]

Let's take the hit by ridding our club of our poor footballers, our wasted trades and expensive flops. If JB leaves we will get compensation but I do not believe it will be what you are hoping for so that alone means we are better to try to hold on to him.

I'm also not sure he's as replaceable as you claim. We are not bursting with outside, dual sided, disposal efficient players.

This will be something we will continue to disagree on. If we are 3 to 4 years away then you are likely correct but I'm not as pessimistic.

How do u replace poor footballers with better footballers with 1 draft pick in top 50 and trading no one of any value to get back in the draft???

[Sanctorum]

Excellent summary Vazelos, we have most certainly been deluded by the team's form in 2020, a lot of which was the result of the players bonding at Noosa and the shorter quarters, which required a lower level of fitness than is needed in 2021.

I go along with most of your delistings but expect the club to retain Frawley as a backup key defender, and if Carlisle is finally clear of his back problems likewise. 200 cm experienced KKPs don't grow on trees. I also believe that Billings will stay as it was stated recently that contract negotiations were close to getting finalised. But I stress, that's what I expect the club to do, especially if there is a major cull.

Seb Ross imho is having his best season ever and again, I expect him to stay.

I also concur with the observation that if the forwards had kicked straight St Kilda would be 7-5 with wins over Geelong and Sydney and there wouldn't be all this pessimism and negative comments from supporters.

My main concern though is about on-field leadership and game plans/tactics, both elements are well below acceptable standards.

Taking yesterday's game as an example, St Kilda played a lot of really poor football (besides accuracy in front of goals) and yet were in the contest for 4 quarters. But whenever Sydney brought the ball out of defence or from a stoppage, their players upfield immediately spread and had players solo in open space. Likewise, Sydney played with infinitely better understanding of where to go, create open spaces which allowed them to move the ball with much greater efficiency, putting the Saints defence under enormous pressure. They also played so much more on instinct than the Saints, knowing that when they passed the ball by hand they knew exactly where their team mates were. That's what the good teams do so much better than our boys, and until that has been addressed by the coaches and the team leaders St Kilda will not become a force to be reckoned with.

[Teflon]

Let's take the hit by ridding our club of our poor footballers, our wasted trades and expensive flops. If JB leaves we will get compensation but I do not believe it will be what you are hoping for so that alone means we are better to try to hold on to him.

I'm also not sure he's as replaceable as you claim. We are not bursting with outside, dual sided, disposal efficient players.

This will be something we will continue to disagree on. If we are 3 to 4 years away then you are likely correct but I'm not as pessimistic.

How do u replace poor footballers with better footballers with 1 draft pick in top 50 and trading no one of any value to get back in the draft???

Here’s a quick comparison how Melb did it right by getting genuine midfield guns in draft vs what we did

Gawn: Pick 34 2009
Petracca: Pick 2 2014
Brayshaw: Pick 3 2014
Oliver: Pick 4 2015
Jackson: Pick 3 2019

Thats a very good inside midfield group purely through the draft

We've had access to high end picks too:
2013 pick 3: billings
2014 pick 1: mccartin
2015 pick 5: traded for carlisle obtained Gresham
2016 pick 10: traded for clark long battle
2017 pick 8: coffield
2018 pick 4: Max king
2019 pick 6: traded for Hill but involved in trades to get Howard Ryder etc.

[bangaulegend]

I thought our overall effort was pretty good yesterday but we have along way to go to be a serious threat. We have too many GOP's & not enough class players. Clark ,Battle ,King & Coffield appear to be struggling & these are the guy's we need to be continually improving to make us a contender. It's not all doom & gloom but with 1 pick in the top 50 national draft it's not all beer & skittles either

[samoht]

Our young, supposedly developing players, apart from Byrnes, have not developed or are going backwards.

Not good.

Someone (everyone probably) needs a kick up the proverbial - including the players themselves.

Maybe our players, coaches and officials should form a circle and perform a mexican butt-kicking wave on a daily basis - except they'll probably miss
and just kick behinds? Hah?

[Scollop]

Our young, supposedly developing players, apart from Byrnes, have not developed or are going backwards.

Not good.

Someone (everyone probably) eeds a kick up the proverbial - including the players themselves.

Maybe our players, coaches and officials should form a circle and perform a mexican butt-kicking wave on a daily basis?

I’ve got the answer

He’s the only one that didn’t get affected by the magical qualities of the man known as Cho!