Reality Check and where we are at!!

[Vazelos]

Season done and the lofted expectations culminating from 2020 now well and truly behind us.
I have sat back posted very little and watched the roller coaster rides of emotions week to week from people on this forum and on social media.
“ Sack the Coach”.... “ We are a top 4 team”...
“ Get rid of the board” etc etc
Facts are we were never a top 4 team.
Facts are 2020 with its unique Covid influences made our list look better than what it is...
Expectations went through the roof and so did people’s perspective and patience.
Amazing how we gave Richardson so many years of mediocrity and in fact our membership retention increased throughout the painstaking mediocrity of Mr Pleasing post match videos listening to his crap.
I tell you a reality check.
The day I saw him after an AGM walk into his new black Mercedes being paid 8 to 10 times the average wage.
Yet this year we turn on Ratten like rattle snakes who is the first coach in ten years to take us to finals.
Winning games is a formula of-
Game Plan + Execution of Game Plan superior to your opposition.
Execution of Game plan required a talented mature well balanced and healthy list.
Those who think we should be playing top 4 take a look at our team today?
Well balanced?
Midfield- full of slow one paced and varying degrees of Abilities.
My favourite Dunstan- I saw some smug comments from “ cheerleaders” lauding him during the week after his strong game versus bottom team Kangas. People clearly forgot his terrible game against the Tigers and today he showed his inadequacies again like he has for 3 years now.. when will people learn this boy is heading for a delisting end of year.
Play Bytel for the rest of the season he is the future .
No genuine A lister with speed and class our midfield has poor balance and lack of class. Jones is sorely missed.
Our defence has missed Paton immensely this boy was brilliant as a shut down mid sized defender the best we have had since Steve Baker.
Carlisle is finished and we miss a tall strong elite defender we have had patch up jobs of shorter lighter framed defenders in Wilkie, Joyce, Highmore etc assisting Howard.
A lot riding on Clavarino and Paton coming back healthy next year after a huge injury.
Forward line has a lot riding on King with Marshall practically being unavailable most of the year.
King has a long way to go in several areas.
Membrey is Membrey part of the nearly crew of good player of excellent character but he is an unreliable kick to goal he lacks some agility and speed as a tall 3 rd forward.
Our small forwards I have to say Butler for me is the worst performer of the year in relation to his 2020 form. He is a ghost or an imposter to last year. Higgins has some ability and talent but he has some small weaknesses in his game that had him lose his spot to the talented fast and agile indigenous forwards at Richmond. The small forward role is as much about what you do without the ball than what you do with it. Higgins can’t close down, harass and chase at an exceptional level that’s why he was allowed to leave. He is a more of a Stephen Milne type than the type the top teams demand in today’s modern football. It’s a brutal position playing small forward at times a grave yard of slim opportunities, running into positions the coaches want you to go to hoping for a chance and chasing back sides pressuring players hoping for a turnover with implied pressure etc.

What do we do from here?
We hold our nerve and we understand we are not a top 4 possibility until 2024 if we get it right in the next 2 years.
We don’t go for Ben King in 2022 we wait until he is out of contract and we try and take him and a restricted agent for 2023 and hope to God Gold Coast don’t match our offer and make us trade.
A player like Ben King doesn’t come on the market very often especially to St Kilda so we must take advantage of the twin brother and family supporter bayside link.
2021 Draft-
We trade Billings for some currency and we go hard for elite talent with best player policy and target an elite mid.
Who here wants to pay Billings 700 to 800 a year?
I know I don’t.
Give Ross a major pay cut to stay he nailed his 4 year contract at the back of 2 B & Fs in a bottom 4 era where we had to pay 95% of the salary cap and he was one of the lucky ones that got paid plenty. 750 k for a role player he has to go down to 500 k to stay and play out his last 3 years.
Do a deal for Hannabery and get him out that was a deal unfortunately tainted with Xavier nepotism. Lethlean and his father old school mates and I know for a fact key stakeholders want to hold an investigation into that deal.
We will delist the following I believe-
Lonie, McKernan, Hunter, Carlisle, Dunstan, Roberton ( retired), Hannabery( payout), Geary ( retire), with 50/50 decisions on Joyce and Wood who I would keep another season.
Trade Billings and keep Ross for his market rate.
We have 3 talented indigenous boys in our zone that we can draft if they don’t get picked on the top 20 they are fast, talented and for once lets get some luck and get some talent through on the cheap. When is the last time we have had anyone come from a Father/ Son etc. Maybe through our zone we can get a couple of Peris, Mitchell etc.
Let’s nail the draft hold our nerve and wait for Ben King the following year and make sure we get him over the line he wants to come back.
Coaching staff have to be reassessed time for some assistants to be moved on.
Kicking for Goal!
Ten years of the same epidemic... kicking for goal is horrible we are now officially last in the AFL!!
We set up a High Performance Academy years ago... to do what?
Is there anything more important than kicking goals rather than points?
Serious analysis of our skill training need to be done.
Recruiting -
We missed out on Bontempelli , Petracca and Naughton last few years that’s the difference between Premierships and nowhere...
It’s ruthless and it’s a tough non exact science but let’s hope our current team is better than the shocking era of Tony Elshaug and Pelchen previously.
Losing Hind and keeping players like McKenzie because he was given 3 years makes me want to cry. Shocking mistake.
This is a long post it’s been brewing for awhile but we need to hold our nerve not try and fix it all in one summer go hard in the draft end of 2021 and go hard for Ben King end of 2022.
I hope Clavarino can come good otherwise we will need another Key Defender and we will have to replace Ryder at some stage they are not easy positions to find just ask Pelchen and crew that moved on McEvoy.
Is it dooms day no it’s not it’s just a reality check we were never a Top 4 list. We have done some good work last few years there is a base there we just have to go back again and stop topping ng up on recyclables.
We have a good board, outside of Hannabery deal Lethlean is an asset and Ratten needs time.

[The Recruit]

Lag

Most of us took the 1110 point loss as finals dashed.

[Vazelos]

Lag

Most of us took the 1110 point loss as finals dashed.

No Nostradamus in that just official today.
Riewoldt and Steele said we would still make finals before today’s game so go figure.

[Wayne42]

Lag

Most of us took the 1110 point loss as finals dashed.

That is a HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE loss

[Banger9798]

Agree with several points Vaz (although stopped reading half way)

Paton a huge underrated loss. ...excellent speed , skills and discipline and courage.

Marshall and Jones make this side look much better

Gresh also, losing both Jones and Gresh hurts us very badly

If we kick straight vs Cats and Swans we are 7-5

Are we really that far off it?

We lack depth, that is without doubt, but we have a side around 8th place.

This year we should :

Settle Battle in a position
Play Clavarino, Byrnes and Bytel whenever we can
Put Hannaberry on long term injury list and either get him right or pay him out.
Clark to midfield for the rest of the year
Spell anyone with niggling injuries ...Billings for instance.

If we can't make finals, this year is development and it doesn't hurt if we slip to 15th or 16th re draft

[Enrico_Misso]

Agree with several points Vaz (although stopped reading half way)

I didn't read any of it but it was really well spaced!

[Vazelos]

Agree with several points Vaz (although stopped reading half way)

I didn't read any of it but it was really well spaced!

Apologies for the manifesto and too much for some people’s attention span...
Next time I’ll shorten it.
Hope one day I can become a Saintsational legend .

[shanegrambeau]

Agree with several points Vaz (although stopped reading half way)

I didn't read any of it but it was really well spaced!

Apologies for the manifesto and too much for some people’s attention span...
Next time I’ll shorten it.
Hope one day I can become a Saintsational legend .

I read it.
Pretty much agree except keep Billings..we lack talent that is fit. He may be hampered, but he is still on the park...just. Perhaps hanging out for the bye.

[Teflon]

Agree with several points Vaz (although stopped reading half way)

I didn't read any of it but it was really well spaced!

Apologies for the manifesto and too much for some people’s attention span...
Next time I’ll shorten it.
Hope one day I can become a Saintsational legend .

I too read it all great post
I agree with most although not sure on B King...I’m wondering if we don’t go hard this year (gonna cost 2 first rounders no matter when) so trade Billings offer thst sbs next years for Bing now and take this years pick 7 or so to draft for best mid...

[Scollop]

Agree with several points Vaz (although stopped reading half way)

I didn't read any of it but it was really well spaced!

Apologies for the manifesto and too much for some people’s attention span...
Next time I’ll shorten it.
Hope one day I can become a Saintsational legend .

You forgot a meme or an emoji to keep 'em amused.

[darylcowie]

So you would keep young Frawley next year?

[Vazelos]

My apologies Frawley out as well I forgot to list him as a delist.

[spert]

Even taking injuries into account, I don't think Ratten is getting the best out of many players- I'm just seeing too many lazy efforts this season, too much soft football, and a team that is not well-drilled in its playing style. We could go on, but why bother.

[Vazelos]

Agree with several points Vaz (although stopped reading half way)

I didn't read any of it but it was really well spaced!

Apologies for the manifesto and too much for some people’s attention span...
Next time I’ll shorten it.
Hope one day I can become a Saintsational legend .

I too read it all great post
I agree with most although not sure on B King...I’m wondering if we don’t go hard this year (gonna cost 2 first rounders no matter when) so trade Billings offer thst sbs next years for Bing now and take this years pick 7 or so to draft for best mid...

Teflon I think you may be right re Ben King it may cost us plenty end of 2022 but the strategy should still apply to hold our nerve until next year it’s a midfielders draft we need to nail an elite fast midfielder and pick up some talent in our zone.
Treloar was an opportunity lost we now have to reset 2 years and get an 18 year old we are not a destination club in the premiership window for a mature aged gun.
You can’t do both in one summer in my opinion.

[cwrcyn]

Let's have a look at what the holes are. Who are the players who are of the right standard?

The following players will not take us where we want to go

Carlisle (finished)
Hannebery (finished)
Geary (finished at year's end)
Mckenzie (poor skills)
Dunstan (poor skills)
Frawley (finished)
Mckernan (finished)
Long (undisciplined, erratic)
Kent (hard working but lacking impact)
Lonie (see Kent)
Hunter (SANFL player)
Alabakis (no development to speak of)
Joyce (last resort back-up)

That's 13 players, 14 if we include the retired Roberton.

We have one draft pick in the top 50 this year. That makes for a list management nightmare.

[Vazelos]

Let's have a look at what the holes are. Who are the players who are of the right standard?

The following players will not take us where we want to go

Carlisle (finished)
Hannebery (finished)
Geary (finished at year's end)
Mckenzie (poor skills)
Dunstan (poor skills)
Frawley (finished)
Mckernan (finished)
Long (undisciplined, erratic)
Kent (hard working but lacking impact)
Lonie (see Kent)
Hunter (SANFL player)
Alabakis (no development to speak of)
Joyce (last resort back-up)

That's 13 players, 14 if we include the retired Roberton.

We have one draft pick in the top 50 this year. That makes for a list management nightmare.

I can’t argue with any of those players you mentioned and your analysis you are spot on I would say Long is the only one with some hope but needs to turn things around but he is what you said he is at the moment.
They all need to go.
That is why I believe Billings or Ross have to go and we will get more for Billings it’s a calculated risk but I think he has reached his ceiling and it’s not that great a ceiling. I think his currency is as high as it can get and we may be able to trade off his exalted status as a former number 3 pick ask yourself if he was a pick 25 would we be talking about him like we have in the past?
It certainly is a time to go back into a strong draft and nail some top young players.

[Ghost Like]

Let's have a look at what the holes are. Who are the players who are of the right standard?

The following players will not take us where we want to go

Carlisle (finished)
Hannebery (finished)
Geary (finished at year's end)
Mckenzie (poor skills)
Dunstan (poor skills)
Frawley (finished)
Mckernan (finished)
Long (undisciplined, erratic)
Kent (hard working but lacking impact)
Lonie (see Kent)
Hunter (SANFL player)
Alabakis (no development to speak of)
Joyce (last resort back-up)

That's 13 players, 14 if we include the retired Roberton.

We have one draft pick in the top 50 this year. That makes for a list management nightmare.

I can’t argue with any of those players you mentioned and your analysis you are spot on I would say Long is the only one with some hope but needs to turn things around but he is what you said he is at the moment.
They all need to go.
That is why I believe Billings or Ross have to go and we will get more for Billings it’s a calculated risk but I think he has reached his ceiling and it’s not that great a ceiling. I think his currency is as high as it can get and we may be able to trade off his exalted status as a former number 3 pick ask yourself if he was a pick 25 would we be talking about him like we have in the past?
It certainly is a time to go back into a strong draft and nail some top young players.

Loved the OP Vazelos and kudos to be able to write so much and make sense.

That said, I disagree with Billings and Ross. Again we become delusional when it comes to perception of worth. If we genuinely think Billings and Ross are of no value to our list and our future, why would another club give us more than what we believe they are worth.

Remember, we are dealing with other recruiters / list managers, we are not selling rubbish to St Kilda list managers, they are their own delusional idiots. Take a bow Lethers, I wish we could deal with you.

[Vazelos]

Agree with several points Vaz (although stopped reading half way)

I didn't read any of it but it was really well spaced!

Apologies for the manifesto and too much for some people’s attention span...
Next time I’ll shorten it.
Hope one day I can become a Saintsational legend .

You forgot a meme or an emoji to keep 'em amused.

LOL

[whiskers3614]

Let's have a look at what the holes are. Who are the players who are of the right standard?

The following players will not take us where we want to go

Carlisle (finished)
Hannebery (finished)
Geary (finished at year's end)
Mckenzie (poor skills)
Dunstan (poor skills)
Frawley (finished)
Mckernan (finished)
Long (undisciplined, erratic)
Kent (hard working but lacking impact)
Lonie (see Kent)
Hunter (SANFL player)
Alabakis (no development to speak of)
Joyce (last resort back-up)

That's 13 players, 14 if we include the retired Roberton.

We have one draft pick in the top 50 this year. That makes for a list management nightmare.

I can’t argue with any of those players you mentioned and your analysis you are spot on I would say Long is the only one with some hope but needs to turn things around but he is what you said he is at the moment.
They all need to go.
That is why I believe Billings or Ross have to go and we will get more for Billings it’s a calculated risk but I think he has reached his ceiling and it’s not that great a ceiling. I think his currency is as high as it can get and we may be able to trade off his exalted status as a former number 3 pick ask yourself if he was a pick 25 would we be talking about him like we have in the past?
It certainly is a time to go back into a strong draft and nail some top young players.

Loved the OP Vazelos and kudos to be able to write so much and make sense.

That said, I disagree with Billings and Ross. Again we become delusional when it comes to perception of worth. If we genuinely think Billings and Ross are of no value to our list and our future, why would another club give us more than what we believe they are worth.

Remember, we are dealing with other recruiters / list managers, we are not selling rubbish to St Kilda list managers, they are their own delusional idiots. Take a bow Lethers, I wish we could deal with you.

POst of the year!
Couldn't believe the hand wringing late last year at the fear Lethlean would leave! I reckon history will judge him at around Pelchen level.

[Vazelos]

Agree with several points Vaz (although stopped reading half way)

Paton a huge underrated loss. ...excellent speed , skills and discipline and courage.

Marshall and Jones make this side look much better

Gresh also, losing both Jones and Gresh hurts us very badly

If we kick straight vs Cats and Swans we are 7-5

Are we really that far off it?

We lack depth, that is without doubt, but we have a side around 8th place.

This year we should :

Settle Battle in a position
Play Clavarino, Byrnes and Bytel whenever we can
Put Hannaberry on long term injury list and either get him right or pay him out.
Clark to midfield for the rest of the year
Spell anyone with niggling injuries ...Billings for instance.

If we can't make finals, this year is development and it doesn't hurt if we slip to 15th or 16th re draft

Excellent analysis Banger

[Yorkeys]

How come Webster gets a pass. Just as undisciplined as Long at times but just doesn't look as manic. Kicking is no better than Higgins in terms of quality.

And Butler, how is he still picked - because we have no reinforcements.

Billings and Ross are so far above those two but is the suggestion get rid of them and keep W & B. Swapping for magic beans only happens in fairy tales. Play the market by selling blue chips and buying startups - a way to wealth how often?

Keep talent. Lose the chaff. Dealing with other AFL clubs seems at best nil sum over the journey.

[kell]

Great OP, Vazelos ( yes, I did read it...), and I agree with cwrcyn's assessment of the list. I think the 2024 timeline is unrealistic as we are essentially rebuilding (again) and are behind others like NM and even the Hawks, particularly given our position going into this draft and the lack of tradable commodities on our list. I think we are at least 4-5 years off the mark.

I have a few question marks over other players not on cwrcyn's list. I question their current value to the team and the value in reaching our objective of winning a premiership?

Hill. 27 yo The impact on the morale and culture given his inconsistency and lack of accountability? He is not getting any faster. What value will he add over the next couple of years? Cut our losses and trade him out for a pick? The solid connection for Ryder. I query his resilience without Ryder.

Jones. 26 yo is he injury prone?

Gresham 23 yo. Although he fits the age profile for a tilt, will he impact once he returns from a significant injury?

Ryder. 33yo

[Vazelos]

How come Webster gets a pass. Just as undisciplined as Long at times but just doesn't look as manic. Kicking is no better than Higgins in terms of quality.

And Butler, how is he still picked - because we have no reinforcements.

Billings and Ross are so far above those two but is the suggestion get rid of them and keep W & B. Swapping for magic beans only happens in fairy tales. Play the market by selling blue chips and buying startups - a way to wealth how often?

Keep talent. Lose the chaff. Dealing with other AFL clubs seems at best nil sum over the journey.

Different positions I agree Webster is a good squad player only he has his flaws and Butler I mentioned as the most disappointing on the list.
Ross has been over paid for his worth as I mentioned he got a big deal 4 years ago and he needs to come down considerably in line with his worth and market value to stay I am sure he will.
Billings I mentioned I would not pay more than 550 with some extra KPIs to 600 if he starts wanting 700+ there is a problem for me.
It is a risk but I know some of the talent we are focusing on in our draft may temper a loss of a decent quality player at his peak.
Big decision no doubt.

[Faulky63]

Let's have a look at what the holes are. Who are the players who are of the right standard?

The following players will not take us where we want to go

Carlisle (finished)
Hannebery (finished)
Geary (finished at year's end)
Mckenzie (poor skills)
Dunstan (poor skills)
Frawley (finished)
Mckernan (finished)
Long (undisciplined, erratic)
Kent (hard working but lacking impact)
Lonie (see Kent)
Hunter (SANFL player)
Alabakis (no development to speak of)
Joyce (last resort back-up)

That's 13 players, 14 if we include the retired Roberton.

We have one draft pick in the top 50 this year. That makes for a list management nightmare.

I can’t argue with any of those players you mentioned and your analysis you are spot on I would say Long is the only one with some hope but needs to turn things around but he is what you said he is at the moment.
They all need to go.
That is why I believe Billings or Ross have to go and we will get more for Billings it’s a calculated risk but I think he has reached his ceiling and it’s not that great a ceiling. I think his currency is as high as it can get and we may be able to trade off his exalted status as a former number 3 pick ask yourself if he was a pick 25 would we be talking about him like we have in the past?
It certainly is a time to go back into a strong draft and nail some top young players.

Loved the OP Vazelos and kudos to be able to write so much and make sense.

That said, I disagree with Billings and Ross. Again we become delusional when it comes to perception of worth. If we genuinely think Billings and Ross are of no value to our list and our future, why would another club give us more than what we believe they are worth.

Remember, we are dealing with other recruiters / list managers, we are not selling rubbish to St Kilda list managers, they are their own delusional idiots. Take a bow Lethers, I wish we could deal with you.

POst of the year!
Couldn't believe the hand wringing late last year at the fear Lethlean would leave! I reckon history will judge him at around Pelchen level.

Anyone seen the start of the movie Draft day?
That is what other clubs are looking at when dealing with Saints recruiters. Who is desperate enough to make a ridiridiculous trade!

[cwrcyn]

Well, the Ryder situation is unfortunate because of his age. I think he can play one more. Jones offers dash and grunt. Gresham is a goal kicking mid, and Hill is still one of our best kicks. Yes, the question marks are fair around them, but when fit and with our best teams available, all of them are very important.

We could be sitting in no man's land for a couple of years if we don't get some elite young talent in that can impact immediately like Butters and Duursma have done at Port Adelaide. I can't remember that last time we've had a young player that has burst onto the scene an been a lock-in in their first season