A 15 point win puts us in the 8 this week.

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A 15 point win puts us in the 8 this week.

Postby kosifantutti » Sat 12 Aug 2017 11:24pm

If we score 100 or more we only have to win by 14.

I still think we have to win every game. Especially this one.
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Re: A 15 point win puts us in the 8 this week.

Postby Enrico_Misso » Sat 12 Aug 2017 11:26pm

So a 14 point win puts us in the 8
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Re: A 15 point win puts us in the 8 this week.

Postby mr six o'clock » Sat 12 Aug 2017 11:37pm

I'd like a 15 goal win
Just to stick it up those dees supporters
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Re: A 15 point win puts us in the 8 this week.

Postby Enrico_Misso » Sat 12 Aug 2017 11:56pm

Let's be more specific

a 16 point win will get us in the 8 no matter what Melbourne score
a 15 point win will get us in the 8 providing Melbourne score 29 or more
a 14 point win will get us in the 8 providing Melbourne score 86 or more
a 13 point win will get us in the 8 providing Melbourne score 143 or more
a 12 point win will get us in the 8 providing Melbourne score 200 or more

That covers all bases.
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Re: A 15 point win puts us in the 8 this week.

Postby desertsaint » Sun 13 Aug 2017 12:33am

how much do we need to win by to pass melbourne on percentage? that's what i want! 80? 100?
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Re: A 15 point win puts us in the 8 this week.

Postby Enrico_Misso » Sun 13 Aug 2017 12:49am

desertsaint wrote:how much do we need to win by to pass melbourne on percentage? that's what i want! 80? 100?

A 63 point win will get us past them on percentage.
A 62 point win will leave us just short regardless of what Melbourne score.
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Re: A 15 point win puts us in the 8 this week.

Postby saintsRrising » Sun 13 Aug 2017 1:02am

Enrico_Misso wrote:
desertsaint wrote:how much do we need to win by to pass melbourne on percentage? that's what i want! 80? 100?

A 63 point win will get us past them on percentage.
A 62 point win will leave us just short regardless of what Melbourne score.

That is not how maths works.
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Re: A 15 point win puts us in the 8 this week.

Postby ace » Sun 13 Aug 2017 2:16am

saintsRrising wrote:
Enrico_Misso wrote:
desertsaint wrote:how much do we need to win by to pass melbourne on percentage? that's what i want! 80? 100?

A 63 point win will get us past them on percentage.
A 62 point win will leave us just short regardless of what Melbourne score.

That is not how maths works.


Put those cuisenaire sticks away and get a calculator.
OR
(Stk + 1645)/(Me + 1690)>(Me + 1752)/StK +1672)
(StK +1672)x (StK +1645) > (Me +1690) x (Me + 1752)
StK^2 + 3317Stk + 2,750,440 > Me^2 + 3442Me + 2,960,880
Plot a graph y = x^2 +3317x + 2,750,440 and another y = x^2 + 3442x + 2,960,880
Where the first graph is higher than the second then St Kilda has a better percentage
Read off the value for x for the first graph that is St Kilda's score the second graph value for x is Melbourne's score.
That how maths works but Enrico is correct.
OR
You can plug in values for Melbourne score into StK^2 + 3317Stk + 2,750,440 > Me^2 + 3442Me + 2,960,880
And solve the resultant quadratic equation if you like
That how maths works but Enrico is correct.
Trust his calculator.

But please note that would put St Kilda ahead of Melbourne by a game and percentage this weekend.
Lose one more game than Melbourne in the last 2 rounds and most likely Melbourne still ends the season ahead.
We need to get a buffer as well.
100 points win would be best.
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Re: A 15 point win puts us in the 8 this week.

Postby desertsaint » Sun 13 Aug 2017 2:51am

Enrico_Misso wrote:
desertsaint wrote:how much do we need to win by to pass melbourne on percentage? that's what i want! 80? 100?

A 63 point win will get us past them on percentage.
A 62 point win will leave us just short regardless of what Melbourne score.

very doable- so let's do it!
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Re: A 15 point win puts us in the 8 this week.

Postby saintspremiers » Sun 13 Aug 2017 7:56am

At the end of the day, if we don't make the eight it's imperative the Dopers don't.

Imagine having them in the finals series AND Turd on GF day. We all know the Dopers wouldn't get past the Elim but the media love of those junkies during the idiotic bye week pre finals would be vomit inducing.
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Re: A 15 point win puts us in the 8 this week.

Postby kosifantutti » Sun 13 Aug 2017 8:58am

Our percentage relative to the Demons is nearly irrelevant in terms of making the finals. We need to win every game which puts the Demons at least one game behind us.

The ones we need to compare to are Bulldogs, Eagle, Port and potentially Sydney and Richmond.
Last edited by kosifantutti on Sun 13 Aug 2017 9:03am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: A 15 point win puts us in the 8 this week.

Postby saintspremiers » Sun 13 Aug 2017 9:30am

Today is just about getting the 4 points. If we win by only a goal that's fine. We don't need to be in the 8 at the end of this round.

Ideally next week against the tanking Norf would be the percentage roost round for us, then try and scrape a win against the Tigers.

I'll take two scraping wins and one big win- that's the best we can hope for IMO
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Re: A 15 point win puts us in the 8 this week.

Postby The Peanut » Sun 13 Aug 2017 9:38am

saintspremiers wrote:Today is just about getting the 4 points. If we win by only a goal that's fine. We don't need to be in the 8 at the end of this round.

Ideally next week against the tanking Norf would be the percentage roost round for us, then try and scrape a win against the Tigers.

I'll take two scraping wins and one big win- that's the best we can hope for IMO


That's about as much as my reasoning will allow too - if any further 'magic' happens that would be a bonus.
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Re: A 15 point win puts us in the 8 this week.

Postby bigcarl » Sun 13 Aug 2017 10:22am

I'll be rapt with a win of any sort. If we turn up we are a chance
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Re: A 15 point win puts us in the 8 this week.

Postby saintsRrising » Sun 13 Aug 2017 11:47am

ace wrote:
saintsRrising wrote:
Enrico_Misso wrote:
desertsaint wrote:how much do we need to win by to pass melbourne on percentage? that's what i want! 80? 100?

A 63 point win will get us past them on percentage.
A 62 point win will leave us just short regardless of what Melbourne score.

That is not how maths works.


Put those cuisenaire sticks away and get a calculator.
OR
(Stk + 1645)/(Me + 1690)>(Me + 1752)/StK +1672)
(StK +1672)x (StK +1645) > (Me +1690) x (Me + 1752)
StK^2 + 3317Stk + 2,750,440 > Me^2 + 3442Me + 2,960,880
Plot a graph y = x^2 +3317x + 2,750,440 and another y = x^2 + 3442x + 2,960,880
Where the first graph is higher than the second then St Kilda has a better percentage
Read off the value for x for the first graph that is St Kilda's score the second graph value for x is Melbourne's score.
That how maths works but Enrico is correct.
OR
You can plug in values for Melbourne score into StK^2 + 3317Stk + 2,750,440 > Me^2 + 3442Me + 2,960,880
And solve the resultant quadratic equation if you like
That how maths works but Enrico is correct.
Trust his calculator.

But please note that would put St Kilda ahead of Melbourne by a game and percentage this weekend.
Lose one more game than Melbourne in the last 2 rounds and most likely Melbourne still ends the season ahead.
We need to get a buffer as well.
100 points win would be best.



Ok. Saints win 163 to 100.

% Saints 101.01 1808/1790 (1645/1690)
% Dees 99.30 1852/1865 (1752/1672)

Ok. Saints win 153 to 100.

% Saints 100.45 1798/1790
% Dees 99.84 1852/1855 So Saints win by 53 and still finish with a % greater than the Dees.
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Re: A 15 point win puts us in the 8 this week.

Postby kosifantutti » Sun 13 Aug 2017 12:33pm

saintsRrising wrote:

Ok. Saints win 163 to 100.

% Saints 101.01 1808/1790 (1645/1690)
% Dees 99.30 1852/1865 (1752/1672)

Ok. Saints win 153 to 100.

% Saints 100.45 1798/1790
% Dees 99.84 1852/1855 So Saints win by 53 and still finish with a % greater than the Dees.

It looks like you have added 30 points to the Demons against score.
Ok. Saints win 163 to 100.

% Saints 101.01 1808/1790 (1645/1690)
% Dees 100.93 1852/1835 (1752/1672)

Ok. Saints win 153 to 100.

% Saints 100.45 1798/1790
% Dees 101.48 1852/1825 So Saints win by 53 and still finish with a % less than the Dees
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Re: A 15 point win puts us in the 8 this week.

Postby Stephen Theodore » Sun 13 Aug 2017 1:08pm

kosifantutti wrote:If we score 100 or more we only have to win by 14.

I still think we have to win every game. Especially this one.


Realistically we have to win every game
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Re: A 15 point win puts us in the 8 this week.

Postby Con Gorozidis » Sun 13 Aug 2017 1:33pm

Shame the Blues couldnt knock out the Eagles last night.
I think if we win the next two and get close to the Tiges we deserve to finish 8th.
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Re: A 15 point win puts us in the 8 this week.

Postby sunsaint » Sun 13 Aug 2017 1:43pm

ace wrote:
saintsRrising wrote:
Enrico_Misso wrote:
desertsaint wrote:how much do we need to win by to pass melbourne on percentage? that's what i want! 80? 100?

A 63 point win will get us past them on percentage.
A 62 point win will leave us just short regardless of what Melbourne score.

That is not how maths works.


Put those cuisenaire sticks away and get a calculator.
OR
(Stk + 1645)/(Me + 1690)>(Me + 1752)/StK +1672)
(StK +1672)x (StK +1645) > (Me +1690) x (Me + 1752)
StK^2 + 3317Stk + 2,750,440 > Me^2 + 3442Me + 2,960,880
Plot a graph y = x^2 +3317x + 2,750,440 and another y = x^2 + 3442x + 2,960,880
Where the first graph is higher than the second then St Kilda has a better percentage
Read off the value for x for the first graph that is St Kilda's score the second graph value for x is Melbourne's score.
That how maths works but Enrico is correct.
OR
You can plug in values for Melbourne score into StK^2 + 3317Stk + 2,750,440 > Me^2 + 3442Me + 2,960,880
And solve the resultant quadratic equation if you like
That how maths works but Enrico is correct.
Trust his calculator.

But please note that would put St Kilda ahead of Melbourne by a game and percentage this weekend.
Lose one more game than Melbourne in the last 2 rounds and most likely Melbourne still ends the season ahead.
We need to get a buffer as well.
100 points win would be best.

Isn't there an app for this???
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Re: A 15 point win puts us in the 8 this week.

Postby David-Lee » Sun 13 Aug 2017 3:10pm

What will a 60 point loss do for us?
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